So, I've decided that despite the war in Iraq I kinda want to get back into following politics - at least, electoral politics. Specifically, as the title says, the politics surrounding the 2008 Presidential race.

I'm going to list a few people from both parties who are testing the waters or have otherwise been mentioned as possible candidates.

Democratic Party
Joe Biden (Senator, Delaware)
Hillary Clinton (Senator, New York)
Tom Daschle (Ex-Senate Leader - South Dakota)
John Edwards (Ex-Senator - North Carolina)
Al Gore (Ex-Vice President and Senator - Tennessee)
John Kerry (Senator - Massachusetts)
Bill Richardson (Governor - New Mexico)

Republican Party
George Allen (Senator, Virginia)
Haley Barbour (Governor, Mississippi)
Newt Gingrich (Ex-Speaker of the House - Georgia)
Rudy Giuliani (Ex-Mayor - New York)
John McCain (Senator - Arizona)
George Pataki (Governor - New York)
Mitt Romney (Governor - Massachusetts)


My personal favorite ticket is Bill Richardson and Tom Vilsack (Governor of Iowa). Both are Democrats (would you have expected anything less of me?) and gained decent standing in the party during the 2004 election, campaigning for Kerry during the general election. (Vilsack's wife even endorsed Kerry before the Iowa caucus, when Vilsack himself could not.) Richardson is Hispanic, which is significant considering that the Hispanic American vote is split between the Republican and Democratic parties. He's also from a Southwestern state, and respected in the other states in the region. They're small population-wise but we can always use the electoral votes. Vilsack, as I said, is governor of Iowa. It's a significant state and was hard-fought, especially during the primaries. Had Iowa not been such a battleground during primary season, that would have helped Kerry immensely. Iowa is also a Midwestern state and, while significant in its own right, any additional support in the Midwest would be extremely beneficial to the Democrats. Vilsack, like Richardson, is fairly well-respected in his region.

I, personally, pray Hillary does not run, and will cry if Kerry decides to run again. If Gore runs again, he likely will not win, and while I respect Daschle very much, he suffered a hard defeat in 2004 and I don't know if he will have the name recognition he'll need in 2008. Edwards has a decent shot; he did very well in 2004, all things considered, and has time to ramp up his support base now. I don't know enough about Biden to say much.

As for the Republicans... Romney makes me ill. He's my governor, and he's making my state into the punch line for jokes during all his appearances. He knows he's got too liberal a record, so he's mocking his liberal state every time he turns around.

Giuliani is too liberal to really have a shot nationally. McCain has the best chance out of everyone in either party and while I respect him, I do not agree with a single facet of his politics. Gingrich is a brilliant political mind, and the man who was almost single-handedly responsible for the Republican takeover in 1994. However, he's very controversial and didn't leave his position under the best circumstances, and that will likely come back to haunt him should he run. Pataki, I don't know a whole lot about. If he has the name recognition and the political platform, he'd pose a major threat to the Democrats because he'd shake our hold on New York's electoral votes. George Allen I know nothing about, and I know very little about Barbour. He was already apparently being talked about prior to Hurricane Katrina, but his handling of the disaster has thrown him into the national spotlight.

Now, I'm curious what those of you who are interested think about the possibilities. If you want more information, and to see where I get mine, check out Taegan Goddard's Political Wire Archives: 2008 Campaign. Any people you don't want to see run? Any you do? Any thoughts at all?

There have been rumors that Mike Huckabee (AR Governor) might try his hand in the Republican primaries, since he can't run for governor again (term limits). He probably doesn't stand a chance because his last job was being a Baptist pastor and his habit of commuting sentences for evil-doers is apalling...

But, he's been brilliant in keeping the state afloat during the influx of evacuees from both Katrina and Rita... so he might like to find himself as somebody's running-mate.

Truthfully, though... I think he's more likely to go after Blanche Lincoln's senate seat in '08 than be on a presidential ticket. Can't count it out, though.

Obama for '08. :p

Doesn't Frist want to run?

I saw Huckabee mentioned, but I didn't list him because it was just a single reference.

And, while Frist and Delay shouldn't be counted out, either of them, they've got serious trouble right now that doesn't exactly bode well for a future presidential run.

Obaoma's too new to the national scene, I think, but I have to say I do think that a black man has a better chance of being elected at this point than a white woman.

There's a gambling website, TradeSports.com, where you can bet on all sorts of things, including political stuff. It works sort of like a stock market - you buy "shares."

My one prof is obsessed with using this site to gauge candidate's chances. Here's the link to how things stand with the 2008 election betting:

2008 Election

You want to look at the first column, where it says Bid. That's what people are bidding to buy shares in that particular outcome. The higher it is, the more likely people betting think that outcome is.

Not enough people listed there; I don't really see Clinton getting it. McCain leading for the COP makes sense to me though.

I think I'd shrivel up and die if Hillary won.

(Luckily, I get to vote in this election. :dancing: )

As for Edwards - here in his home state, I have not run into very many people at all who like him or care enough to have an opinion. He spent so much time in national politics that it felt like he forgot the state. Dole and our governor are much more popular here than he is.

And when we launched a letter-writing campaign at Governor's School last summer about the genocide/humanitarian crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan, Elizabeth Dole wrote me back and John Edwards didn't. :frustrated:

(Okay, we sent a form letter to Dole and she sent a form letter back. But at least there was some correspondence there! As far as we know, Edwards's mailbox doubles as a trash can. Really, how much time does it take to have one of your bazillion assistants sort mail by key words and send form letters? "Oh, this one has the word 'Sudan,' send 'em the 'We're working on it, kthanksbye' form letter.")

If you'll allow me to be naive and idealist for a moment: it seems like what we really need right now for a president is someone who's going to go into the White House and fix everything. Someone willing to be a one-term president and do whatever it takes to straighten out the federal government: rewrite No Child Left Behind so that it doesn't punish schools for failing by taking away the money they need to succeed, for example. Restructure government so it's less confusing - which means cutting bureaucrats who only got their jobs because of political loyalty. Repair foreign relations. Force energy companies to find alternatives to oil so that a) we're not so dependent on foreign oil and b) the entire nation doesn't shut down when a disaster disrupts Gulf oil production.

Because all that can be done, but you're not going to be very popular until the nation sees the benefits, which, given the general stupidity of humanity, will be a very long time coming.

[/naive idealism]

If NC's Democrat governor Mike Easley has national ambitions (I honestly don't know if he does), I'd like to see him up for something in '08. He has a tradition of ignoring convention here in NC - which means skipping campaigning and political nonsense to actually get work done in Raleigh. He tends to go after an issue and try to fix it, doing what he believes is the right thing at whatever cost - including vetoing Democratic iniatives in the state General Assembly. That combined with the fact that he's a conservative Democrat - more fiscally conservative than the average Democrat, pro-death penalty and gun rights - has helped him win in a Republican state.

If he was running for president - or, probably more likely, if he ended up as someone's running mate - I'd have to consider voting Democrat. :| The problem with Easley though is that, because he skipped campaigning to get work done (gasp! ;) ), he's probably not hugely popular with the Democratic leadership.

Not enough people? There were like 2 dozen for each party... maybe I put the wrong link...

Grumble...whatever. Go here, click on "Politics," click on 2008 election.

He's also a liberal. No wonder they don't like him.

That just won't happen.

You can't do that on a national stage. You won't get elected. People in Iowa and NH, for example, won't vote for someone in a primary/caucus unless they've at the VERY least gotten to see the candidate speak - some if they haven't met them, they won't vote for them.

Don't forget that the Republican leadership don't like people who don't work on party politics either. That's NOT just a Democratic thing.


EDIT:

Are you kidding me? There are people saying Cheney? and Schwarzenegger? Good grief.
This is what's wrong with America; no one knows what the hell they're talking about.

Feingold - he's another one I've seen is talking to folks in Iowa, I think it was. But I don't know that he's even said he's looking. Has he?

Interesting that the split between the parties to win is even...

Tom Ridge to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008

:rofl:

Hence the naive idealism disclaimer. ;)

He's not skipping his own campaigning - this is after he's been elected, he's skipping some campaigning for other Democrats. Which gets him elected but the other Democrats don't like it so much.

Agreed. My comment wasn't intended to say that it was just Democrats - I just mentioned the Democratic leadership not liking it because I was talking about a Democrat. :p

And Schwarzenegger . . . :headwall:

I don't know too much about the upcoming election scene, but I can say this: At least Bush won't be back.

Unfortunately the democrats don't have a plan right now, and I think that's hurting them.

I don't want Hillary Clinton to be our first woman president...

The Republicans don't have a plan either and we Dems are actually lucky. Usually, the party in power has a clear possible successor. The Reps don't, and that gives us a shot at least.

I hope Dick Cheney wins the republican nomination.

I will be SHOCKED if that happens; I don't believe he's even hinted at wanting to run.

Well, dick cheney's ambitions include no-bid contracts for halliburton and world domination.....

I think Russ Feingold is great, but he's so far left of center that I don't think he'll get the nomination. But I love a guy who has the balls the oppose the Patriot Act back in 2001 because he recognized it for what it was, and voted NO on going to war in Iraq because he felt the intelligence was iffy at best.

Then again, he knows how to work the other side of the asile and got McCain-Feingold passed.

Feingold's vote aren't always popular at the time, but I think more often than not, they're the right votes.

Where is Feingold out of, Birdie? I KNOW that I know, but I can't think right now and I'm too lazy to look. What I've heard of him, I like. Too bad so many Americans are middle-of-the road :(

Oh how I wish Colin Powel would run as a Republican. The man was the sole voice of reason in the current administration, and I find him to be respectable. I don't view him as the 'War Monger' that many others see him as (Mostly because of being in the Bush administration).

In all honesty? It's a shame Bush let him get away. It's a bigger shame Bush didn't listen to him when it came to Iraq.

But, lo. Powel won't be running for any political office anytime soon.

*shrugs* I have half a mind to write in Jon Stewart in 2008.

I would love to see that ;)

He totally rocks my world. I've almost given up on the real news, because I know that I'll get closer to the truth by watching "The Daily Show."

Fiengold is Wisconsin, my former state :) I vote Fiengold and I LOVE HIM! I wore a big button that said "I vote for RUSS" get it?

as for everything else-

Jon Stewart as prez? might bring some much needed sanity and intelligence to the White House.

McCain is possibly the only leading Republican I could consider voting for-but more likely I wouldn't vote for him because the republicans and I fudementaly disagree on a number of issue. But I could live with him. HOWEVER, McCain isn't going to get nominated because he isn't extremist enough. Oh how I hate the uber-right. I wish the moderate Republicans, the fiscal Republicans would WAKE UP and see that their party has been hijacked by war hawks and hate mongers.

Le Sigh

Edwards may run for the dems again. One can only hope.

I could live with McCain. I don't think I could vote for him because, as you said, I just disagree on the issues. But I respect him, and the number of Republicans I respect is rather small.

I don't understand how the extreme right has so much strength, considering the vast majority of Americans - on either side of the line - are moderates

The hijacking of the Republican party-I think it's because the fiscal wing of the party didn't bother to do their research and just kept donating to the guy who screamed "I'm Reagan's heir!" the loudest, whether it was true or not. In Bush's case, we know it's not true. He's spending like a New Deal Democrat on uppers. Too bad there are no tax revenues and the deficit is sprialing out of control...

But I digress. So that's the fiscal dems....then there's the whole religion issue. Somehow, Rove managed to paint all Democrats as heathen, kitty-killing, fire-spewing athesists, which is patently untrue. In post 9/11 America, people are willing to identify themseleves as "Christian" so they can feel superior and say "I'm a Christian and I would never fly an airplane into a building like those Muslims." (Not all Christians, btw. But I think this also happens subconcously). Thus, the dems who are not eager to identify themselves with a single religion (you know, because they're all about inculsion) are suddenly in the hole. Those democrats might even like Muslims!

The abortion issue-the Republicans should thank the Supreme Court every day that Roe v. Wade is out there. otherwise, what defining issue would they have! there are tons of "Abortion is wrong! But I need one and my case is different than all these moraless whores." types running around out there. But they want RvW overturned because that's what all good Repubs want (just as long as they can get on when they want, and, oh, please don't tell my husband!). But without it, what do you have to get those single issue voters out there? Not much.

And to be perfectly honest, I think a lot of it is former free-loving 19060s/1970s types who have regrets about what they unleashed on the world. But you cannot put the genie back in the bottle. But here's the thing: I don't think what resulted was this horrible thing! I love liberal America. I lvoe that my friends come from every region of the world, every religion. I love the free press and free speech. (I love watching White House beat reporters get into arguements with McCellan!). I wish for the day that just because someone was gay didn't mean they were a second class citizen.

Sorry. I just feel like not only has a Republican party be hijacked, but America has too. Mayberry was FAKE, people! Wake up, diverse America is a beautiful place, not something to be feared. What is to be feared is not gay love, but constitutionalized discrimination. Critics speaking openly are not to be feared, but organization relatiation by the leaders of our own country damn well better be feared! (slightly off topic, but the fact that most Americans don't understand the Plame case, and don't understand it's implications sickens me. THESE ARE THE PEOPLE 51% OF YOU VOTED FOR, EVEN AFTER THERE WAS ALREADY EVIDENCE OF LYING AND WRONGDOING! Don't turn the other way-look at the monster you created right in the eye.)

Ok, so that's quite the rant.

Love,

I voted for Kerry and was against the war from the get go and every time a state constitutional amendment passes banning same-sex marriage, it makes me sick.

ETA: while i'm getting al my anger out here...I abhor how the Republican party acts like their slim majority is way bigger than it really is. Bush got 51% of the vote. The Senate republicans hold 56 seats. It's not like the democrats have rolled over and died! I'm tired of them refusing to reach out and work with the rest of the country. This will come back to bite them in the ass. The will fot he majority must protect the rights of the minority. The republicans aren't living by that.

And today's favorite quote from the washington post (all bolding mine):

On the substance front, Reid has a valid point: The Republican Congress--which held hearings every 10 minutes on various and sundry Clinton scandals-- has no interest in performing serious oversight of the Bush administration. (Imagine if a top Clinton aide had been indicted in the outing of a CIA operative! The GOP [Senators] would have scars from colliding with each other in the rush to hold hearings.)

I agree with just about everything you wrote, Birdie, but I wanted to specifically comment on that last quote. THAT is what drives me crazy about the entire situation. People act like Clinton lying about having an affair is on the same plane as all the crap we've seen from the Bush administration, and how they manage to draw that comparison just boggles my mind - and the fact that they seem to believe it's justified makes me ill.

And to bring this back around a bit more to the topic at hand, everything you just said is what gives me hope for 2008. In 2004, I'd hoped that people were fed up enough with Republican rule to vote Bush out. I was wrong. But even just one year has shown more deaths in Iraq, more division in the nation, etc, and I really think that the Democrats, if they play their cards right, stand a shot at taking the White House back. I really think that people ARE fed up - and that the next three years (oh, Force, do we seriously have three more years of this clown?) will only show an increase in distaste for Republican domination of the political system.

The Washington Post's resident Republican columnist George F. Will did an editorial on Feingold today, almost, almost an endorsement of him running for president. (and the idea of a McCain vs. Feingold presidental race is what every race should be! I'm about to wet myself in anticipation!)

One other thing...I went to seeGood Night, and Good Luck last night. If you haven't GO NOW. Not only was it beautiful, it's also a reminder of what journalism hasn't done since Bush came into office.

As a one-time Wisconsinite, I'd like to think that giving America Russ Feingold is our apology for Joe McCarthy.

I'll have to do some research on Feingold...