Ancient Legion > Runescape/clan discussion > Getting Rare Drops - The Chances

Have you ever wondered just how likely you are to get a visage drop from an iron dragon? or if it's really worth your time trying to get obby drops in the TzHaar caves? well, i've decided that i am going to map out the percentage drops of some commonly sought-after monsters to see how rare certain items are.

The first monster I will be mapping is the TzHaar-Ket, combat level 149, and this information will be updated until 1000 have been killed:

So far 181 have been killed,

You have a:

59.7% chance of 2 Obsidian Charms

50.3% chance of between 1 - 100 Tokkul

20.4% chance of Onyx Bolt Tips

3.3% chance of Sapphire

1.1% chance of Emerald

0.6% chance of Diamond

0.6% chance of Obsidian Maul

The next two monsters I will be mapping are the Steel Dragon and the Iron Dragon.

Iron Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

Steel Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

More drops will be added as i recieve them, and i will be taking requests to map other monsters soon, i will probably make a poll for it. Any help in mapping would be appreciated.

The first monster I will be mapping is the TzHaar-Ket, combat level 149, and this information will be updated until 1000 have been killed:

So far 181 have been killed,

You have a:

59.7% chance of 2 Obsidian Charms

50.3% chance of between 1 - 100 Tokkul

20.4% chance of Onyx Bolt Tips

3.3% chance of Sapphire

1.1% chance of Emerald

0.6% chance of Diamond

0.6% chance of Obsidian Maul

The next two monsters I will be mapping are the Steel Dragon and the Iron Dragon.

Iron Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

Steel Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

More drops will be added as i recieve them, and i will be taking requests to map other monsters soon, i will probably make a poll for it. Any help in mapping would be appreciated.

JW, but is this just saying how likely you are to get a drop from something? If so, how do you find out? :blink:

i am tallying drops i get from the creature, then dividing the number of drops by the number of creatures killed =)

He is killing about 100 tzharr and tracking what they drop by writing the drops down and calculating the percentages.

well im doing 100 at a time, then updating every 100 until 1000, so it will be accurate =)

Sometimes, 1000 isn't enough to get a really accurate estimate. If you need help, you got clan mates to help out too.

alright =) i have ritalin helping me with fire giants right now, and after 1k Ket's im having a poll with what to do next, so maybe i'll enlist some help then

I think jagex hates me and gives me crap drops full stop. In 8 years the best drop i've gotten is like drag legs..

my best drop is drag skirt. but i dont fight hard monsters tho.

Theorically you would need an inifite number of kills to actually get the correct rate of drops.

Since that would take a little more than a week, you should do with only 1000 or 500, and get an average with other players that did 500 as well.

Since that would take a little more than a week, you should do with only 1000 or 500, and get an average with other players that did 500 as well.

Alot is luck i got a visage after 300 kills at steels, but then killed another 700ish of them without a dragon drop.

ye its random

Its just random tbh

I think this is a pretty good idea myself, I'd be glad to get some tallies if I get a chance to get on long enough. I think some of it is luck, I've fished probably close to 10k sharks and never gotten a big one. But still, it'd be neat to see.

It's virtually impossible to set a real random variable on a computer. It'll always recurr to some kind of algorithm, which can be predicted. Hence, it IS possible to calculate and analyze RS's drop algorithm, however, its analysis would take a little more than six months the way you are doing. Of course, if you were a JMod, you'd have access to the algorithm's programming, hence be able to calculate every single drop you'd get.

Well, actually your odds are reallly 1 for every 100 on something for instance, because you are only as lucky as the next drop... so its actually 1 in a 100 every kill, not over a period of time. Therefore, your odds are impossible to measure by this experiment. The **ONLY** way to measure this is to see the algorithm, which only Jagex can do.

There's an article on this on Tip.it I think, look in the Tip.it times if you want to read it.

There's an article on this on Tip.it I think, look in the Tip.it times if you want to read it.