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Ancient Legion > Runescape/clan discussion > Getting Rare Drops - The Chances

Title: Getting Rare Drops - The Chances
Description: how likely are you to get......

thegame910 - March 26, 2009 07:46 PM (GMT)
Have you ever wondered just how likely you are to get a visage drop from an iron dragon? or if it's really worth your time trying to get obby drops in the TzHaar caves? well, i've decided that i am going to map out the percentage drops of some commonly sought-after monsters to see how rare certain items are.

The first monster I will be mapping is the TzHaar-Ket, combat level 149, and this information will be updated until 1000 have been killed:

So far 181 have been killed,

You have a:

59.7% chance of 2 Obsidian Charms
50.3% chance of between 1 - 100 Tokkul
20.4% chance of Onyx Bolt Tips
3.3% chance of Sapphire
1.1% chance of Emerald
0.6% chance of Diamond
0.6% chance of Obsidian Maul

The next two monsters I will be mapping are the Steel Dragon and the Iron Dragon.

Iron Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

Steel Dragon:

So far 0 have been killed,

You have a:

More drops will be added as i recieve them, and i will be taking requests to map other monsters soon, i will probably make a poll for it. Any help in mapping would be appreciated.

Craig - March 26, 2009 08:07 PM (GMT)
JW, but is this just saying how likely you are to get a drop from something? If so, how do you find out? :blink:

thegame910 - March 26, 2009 08:25 PM (GMT)
i am tallying drops i get from the creature, then dividing the number of drops by the number of creatures killed =)

Ritalin11 - March 26, 2009 08:29 PM (GMT)
He is killing about 100 tzharr and tracking what they drop by writing the drops down and calculating the percentages.

thegame910 - March 26, 2009 08:33 PM (GMT)
well im doing 100 at a time, then updating every 100 until 1000, so it will be accurate =)

starwolf_ftw - March 26, 2009 08:57 PM (GMT)
Sometimes, 1000 isn't enough to get a really accurate estimate. If you need help, you got clan mates to help out too.

thegame910 - March 26, 2009 09:14 PM (GMT)
alright =) i have ritalin helping me with fire giants right now, and after 1k Ket's im having a poll with what to do next, so maybe i'll enlist some help then

Chuffa - March 26, 2009 09:17 PM (GMT)
I think jagex hates me and gives me crap drops full stop. In 8 years the best drop i've gotten is like drag legs..

dflame58 - March 26, 2009 11:14 PM (GMT)
my best drop is drag skirt. but i dont fight hard monsters tho.

K Arthur90 - March 27, 2009 01:17 AM (GMT)
Theorically you would need an inifite number of kills to actually get the correct rate of drops.
Since that would take a little more than a week, you should do with only 1000 or 500, and get an average with other players that did 500 as well.

40 def robin - March 27, 2009 01:51 AM (GMT)
Alot is luck i got a visage after 300 kills at steels, but then killed another 700ish of them without a dragon drop.

damon - March 27, 2009 02:34 AM (GMT)
ye its random

Biizurk - March 27, 2009 02:35 AM (GMT)
Its just random tbh

mastaofmelee - March 27, 2009 02:40 AM (GMT)
I think this is a pretty good idea myself, I'd be glad to get some tallies if I get a chance to get on long enough. I think some of it is luck, I've fished probably close to 10k sharks and never gotten a big one. But still, it'd be neat to see.

K Arthur90 - March 27, 2009 07:24 PM (GMT)
It's virtually impossible to set a real random variable on a computer. It'll always recurr to some kind of algorithm, which can be predicted. Hence, it IS possible to calculate and analyze RS's drop algorithm, however, its analysis would take a little more than six months the way you are doing. Of course, if you were a JMod, you'd have access to the algorithm's programming, hence be able to calculate every single drop you'd get.

101laxkid2 - March 27, 2009 08:08 PM (GMT)
Well, actually your odds are reallly 1 for every 100 on something for instance, because you are only as lucky as the next drop... so its actually 1 in a 100 every kill, not over a period of time. Therefore, your odds are impossible to measure by this experiment. The ONLY way to measure this is to see the algorithm, which only Jagex can do.

There's an article on this on I think, look in the times if you want to read it.

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