Economic Reports, FY2008

[Chile [MTTezla]]

Please do not post here. This thread is for the posting of reports on countries for the FY2008.

WORLD BANK REPORTS: FISCAL YEAR 2008

[Chile [MTTezla]]

2008 GDP (PPP): $243.3 billion USD
GDP Growth: 3.8%
Change (from 2007): -1.4%

Chile's GDP growth slowed from 5.2% in 2007 to 3.8% as a result of economic instability following the American financial crisis in late 2008. The drop would have been more dramatic, as exports fell and copper prices decreased, in the absence of drastic government steps to stem the losses. Consumer spending rose, and foreign investment increased in the fourth quarter of 2008 as a result of continent-wide stabilization projects. In addition, government spending on infrastructure projects and direct injections into corporations increased GDP and decreased unemployment, allowing the country to avoid the worst of the recession.

Inflation (CPI): 7.6%
Change (from 2007): +1.1%

Inflation rises because of increased government spending and decreased interest rates. Increases would have been worse without the global deflationary crisis.

Gini Index: 56.1
Change (from 2007): +1.2

Inequality rises in the Chilean economy due to government aid for corporations and the inequal effects of the credit crisis on the populance. Chile becomes the least equal country in terms of income in Latin America, barring a similar decrease in equality in Brazil, Paraguay, and Colombia.

Unemployment: 5.8%
Change (from 2007): -1.2%

Unemployment falls due to massive government spending, which creates many new jobs. These jobs are focused around infrastructure projects on the Argentine border.

Exports: $52.23 billion
Change (from 2007): -$14.20 billion

Exports drop dramatically, as the price of copper falls and as global demand greatly decreases. This is the main cause of the GDP slowdown.

Imports: $42.2
Change: +$0.4 billion

Imports rise slightly as domestic consumer spending increases faster than domestic production can increase, and due to the decreasing costs of foreign goods. The growth of imports is slowed by an unstable Peso.

Other notes:

Government defecit increases on the order of $15 billion. Government debt increases by the same amount. Note that this constitutes a change of -$25 billion total, considering the government's 2007 surplus of $10 billion. This is largely due to decreased tax revenues and increased government spending on infrastructure projects, as the Japanese project and UNASUR projects were funded out of a previously-existing fund.

GDP per sector changes to the following:

agriculture: 5.3%, industry: 48.3%, services: 46.4%

[Chile [MTTezla]]

2008 GDP (PPP): $813 billion
GDP Growth: 4.8%
GDP Growth Change: -2.1%

Iran's GDP growth slowdown is dramatic largely because of rapidly dropping oil prices. In Iran's export-based economy, this is a severe problem. It's slightly cushioned by some of Iran's economic fixes. His investments in the Turkish economy and the Turkish investment in Iran help stabilize both. The oil production cut hurts the Iranian economy in the short-term, as oil prices don't rise until 2009. Construction of a highway and a new military base provide jobs and increase government and consumer spending, which help offset the losses in exports. However, they lead to an increase in imports, which brings down Iran's export-import balance and hurt an already-crippling inflation.

Inflation (CPI): 37%
Change: +7%

This is due to increased government spending and a decreased import/export balance.

Unemployment: 9.5% (official government rate)
Change: -1.5%

Employment increases with increased government spending on infrastructure projects. The change is dramatic because decreased oil prices rarely lead to job loss. Finally, note that the official government rate is likely lower than the actual unemployment rate.

Exports: $65.4 billion
Change: -$11.1 billion

Exports fall in value with a decreasing price of oil and decreased global demand for most products.

Imports: $63.6 billion
Change: $2.3 billion

Imports rise slightly as the government buys construction materials and as Iranians demand increased imports.

Other notes:

None.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

2008 GDP (PPP): $56.05 billion
GDP Growth: 6%
GDP Growth Change: -2.5%

Ethiopia's GDP growth slowdown is due largely to the drought that is affecting the region. Currently agriculture accounts for 41 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), 80 percent of exports, and 80 percent of the labour force. However the nation's anti-drought efforts have helped reduce the effect. Also a general decrease in price of gold over the past month of the last quarter has had some effect on GDP. Foreign investment, though now encouraged by the government and the new constitution, has been slow and steady to rise. Investors are looking for safe havens for their money at this moment and do not view Ethiopia as one. With contstruction of a new financial district the future looks bright for the nation.

Inflation (CPI): 30%
Change: +5%

This is due to a small increase government spending and a decreased import/export balance. However the increase has been slowed by the slashing of the military budget.

Unemployment: N/A
Change: N/A

Employment remains an uncalculable figure in the Ethiopian economy. Most of the population is involved in informal economics, which is not accounted for. However some studies show that recent government action has increased employment all across the nation, especially with new construction in the nation's capital.

Exports: $1.178 billion
Change: -$110 million

Exports fall in value with a decreasing price of gold.

Imports: $5.565 billion
Change: $400 million

Imports rise slightly as the government buys construction materials and increased dependence on oil extraction sites. Additionally the drought has increased the necessity to import food products.

Other notes: None

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $355.7 billion USD
GDP Growth: 6.3%
GDP Growth Change: -2.0%

Venezuela's GDP growth slows because of the global slowdown. The reason that this is the only reason that it slows is because a plethora of other other factors essentially cancel each other out, leaving the global slowdown and decreased exports as the only significant factor. The first and most important factor is the decreasing price of oil. (Note that the increase in the price of oil came in early 2009, not late 2008, and is therefore irrelevant for 2008 statistics). The decreasing price of oil hurts Venezuela's most important export, and the backbone of the Venezuelan economy. However, the Venezuelan government's reaction to the global slowdown, most notably in infrastructure projects, has offset a lot of this problem. It also helps unemployment significantly, as no real jobs are lost in the oil industry, even though profits drop. Venezuela's investment in the Bank of the South doesn't really help its economy - as all South American countries become more stable sources, Venezuela stays towards the bottom of the list of South American countries to invest in, due to international tensions and tightening restrictions on businesses, though there is some hope as restrictions on businesses were loosened just before the end of the year.

Inflation (CPI): 28.3%
Change: +6.5%

Inflation continues to be Venezuela's worst problem, as already swollen government spending increases on infrastructure projects. When combined with horrendously dropping oil prices, which are the basis of the country's government revenues through the state-owned oil company, government deficit increases greatly and inflation spikes.

Unemployment: 5.1%
Change: -1.1%

Unemployment decreases as a result of government-led infrastructure projects. Interestingly, informal employment also increases.

Exports: $41.14 billion
Change: -$17.80 billion USD

Exports fall in value with the price of oil.

Imports: $49.61 billion
Change: $5.23 billion

Imports rise from government expenditures and from increased consumer demand due to stimulus packages and Venezuela's lack of production of the goods that consumers demand. However, Venezuela's agricultural industry in the south begins to look up, though it is hampered by poor infrastructure.

Other Notes:

Government Defecit: $35.14 billion
Change: +$33.5 billion

Venezuela's government defecit skyrockets as revenues from oil plummet and as several large spending projects are embarked upon. It remains lower than catastrophic only because major arms purchases were cancelled.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $77.11 billion
GDP Change: 18%
Change in GDP Change: -6%

Stupid Qatari lack of economic statistics for 2007. I assumed constant GDP growth of 24% for 2007, for no real economic changes that I could see. On the other hand, the Qatari economy is remarkably simple to calculate, as it's almost entirely based on oil and natural gas. When the price of oil and natural gas falls, the Qatari economy falls. Luckily, OPEC cuts and a stable price of natural gas keep the Qatari economy from falling too far.

"Qatarization", on the other hand, continues to hurt foreign investment expect GDP growth to keep falling. On the other hand, it helps unemployment.

Inflation: 7.6%
Change: -0.2%

Inflation decreases slightly because of global deflationary pressure. The Qatari government policies keep inflation down as well. Deflation might be a threat in the future if there is no resolution to the global crisis, but it is unlikely.

Unemployment: 2.2%
Change: -0.5%

Unemployment continues to drop, to almost dangerously low levels. This is driven by Qatarization, a process that forces foreign companies to put Qataris in high-level position. This process could both keep foreign companies out and keep the Qatari job market from being competitive. Unemployment is at a good level when it's around 4%, generally.

Exports: $20.6 billion
Change: -$4.3 billion

Exports fall with the decreased value of oil. They increase with the increased exports of natural gas, though.

Imports: $7.3 billion
Change: +$0.6 billion

Imports continue to rise, and will continue to do so as GDP per capita and employment rise at unsustainable rates.

Other Notes:

Misery Index: 9.8
Change: -0.7

Things are looking up, perhaps artifically in both statistics.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $1.287 trillion USD
GDP Growth: 1.0%
GDP Growth Change: -1.7%

The Canadian economy has been faltering right along with the US economy. Unfortunately for the Canadians, the US stock market re-collapse, following the McCain election, hit the Canadians again. Canadian counter-measures are helping the problem, especially in the area of interest rate cuts. However, perhaps more worrying, is the inaction of the government to directly stimulate the financial sector. When combined with parallel inaction in the United States, loans are quickly drying up in Canada, or are coming from far-away source like Chile and Japan. This creates problems for Canadian businesses, or more specifically banks, and could spiral into a crisis if the situation is not addressed, preferably in both Canada and its southern neighbor. GDP growth doesn't fall excessively, but will continue to do so in the absence of liquidity in the financial markets.

Inflation (CPI): 1.9%
Change: -0.5%

Thanks to global deflationary pressures and moderation in the Canadian government's efforts to stimulate the economy, inflation decreases within Canada. However, deflation could theoretically become a problem if the trend becomes extreme. Continued interest rates cuts would allay any such problem, on the other hand.

Unemployment: 6.4%
Change: +0.4%

The collapse of the auto industry and the increasing fragility of the lending industry in Canada (with the subsequent lack of loans), have contributed to rising unemployment. The problem hinges on many of the same ones discussed for GDP.

Exports: $425.0 billion
Change: -$15.1 billion

Exports fall as both the price of oil falls and as the auto industry falls upon difficult times. However, demand for Canada's exports is much less elastic than that of other major exporters, so exports remain relatively constant.

Imports: $382.1 billion
Change: -$12.3 billion

As unemployment increases and as Canadian consumers begin to save more, imports begin to drop. Potentially a good thing for domestic business if the lending market can be repaired.

Other Notes:

Gini Index: 29.9
Change: -0.6

Interesting, inequality is lessened within the Canadian economy, as oil companies take the largest hit. As employees rarely lose their jobs in the case, and as the financial sector is the second largest to be hit, it is mostly the rich taking the brunt of the financial fallout. On the other hand, as small businesses receive less loans and as the auto industry takes its lumps, the distribution of misery might become more equal.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $211.0 billion
GDP Growth: 6.5%
GDP Growth Change: -2.6%

The Peruvian economy remains dangerously reliant on foreign economies, and dangerously sensitive to their whims. While the Peruvian economy boomed from 2002 to 2007, it fell back somewhat on economic woes in the United States, and continues to look less than robust. The stock market continued to decline until governmental countermeasures stemmed the fall, but left it at well under half of its all-time greatest value.

Governmental reforms have drawn both some foreign aid and some increased consumer spending. In addition, the government has propped up financial institutions, insuring that liquidity will not be a great problem within the country and increasing both economic stability and domestic consumption. Though the economy is slowing due to imports and exports, the future of the Peruvian economy may be in domestic consumption.

Inflation (CPI): 1.04%
Change: Unknown [insuffecient 2007 data]

Based off of IMF reports for Peruvian inflation FY2008. Government spending fails to significantly increase inflation when combined with cuts in military spending.

Unemployment: 5.2% [Official]
Change: -2.0%

The unemployment rate in the country falls significantly as the Peruvian government takes large steps to increase employment. Perhaps more encouragingly, these steps also make inroads into the chronic problems of underemployment within the Peruvian economy.

Exports: $21.26 billion
Change: -$1.43 billion

While exports decrease slightly due to decreased global demand, they stay within normal parameters.

Imports: $16.25 billion
Change: +$0.87 billion

Imports rise slightly due to increased domestic demand, but also stay within normal parameteres.

Other notes:

None

[Chile [MTTezla]]

2008 GDP (PPP): $188.4 billion
GDP Growth: 2.5%
GDP Growth Change: -2.0%

Finland's GDP growth decline is due in large part to the failure of a strong export world market at the moment. Its high tech, high level manufacturing items have been hard hit with recent economic trends. The sell off of Patria has however reduced the effect of slowed GPD growth rate. The promise of new factories in Finland has boosted consumer confidence as well.

Inflation (CPI): 2.5%
Change: +0%

Government spending remains fixed and global deflationary trends cause inflation to remain unchanged.

Unemployment: 7% (official government rate)
Change: +.9%

Unemployment increases because there has been no increase in government spending. A faulty car manufacturing market leads to several jobs being lost.

Exports: $79.81 billion
Change: -$9.1 billion

A global decrease in business spending and construction lowers demand for machinery and equipment, which is Finland's main export. As a result the value of all exports traded decreases dramatically.

Imports: $76.5 billion
Change: -$2 billion

A decrease in the price of oil and a level price field on food has caused a small decrease in the value of imports.

Other notes:

None.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $16.37 billion USD
GDP Growth: -14%
Change in GDP Growth: -21%

The DRC has all sorts of problems. Its most drastic is its instability. Seemingly on the brink of war yet again, foreign companies have fled once again. Foreign aid was already starting to dry up before the hostilities started, thanks to government waste, and now looks ready to disappear altogether. The fighting itself has caused huge cuts in the nation's most prosperous industries, most notably mining. The economy is now in shambles as most of its industry is beginning to shut down. Manufacturing is down so far across the board that it has drawn down the GDP by nearly 8% single-handedly. The rest of the GDP downturn has been caused by the decreased foreign aid, the fact that money has been pulled out of the economy for the military, and the fact that civilians are being laid off frequently, or more simply being killed in the violence. Foreign companies are beginning to sell their assets in the Congo, or just packing up and heading home. If this trend continues, the Congo could completely implode economically in a few short years.

Oh, and there's also a global economic slowdown. Finally, the DRC's long-term problems continue to drag down growth - corruption, unclear legality, and government opacity.

Inflation (CPI): 26.8%
Change: +10.1%

Inflation rises as the government continues to spend as revenues plunge, and as foreign investors pull their money out of the Congolese currency, and the economy at large. Fears that the government will print money to maintain its purchases are also driving up inflation, as well as general uncertainty.

Unemployment: Unknown
Change: Up

Clear statistics on unemployment in the DRC are nonexistant, but it's fair to say that unemployment will increase significantly with the turmoil in the country.

Exports: $0.772 billion
Change: -$0.865 billion

Exports plunge as manufacturing and mining essentially halt. Exports continue from remaining manufacturers.

Imports: $1.722 billion
Change: -$0.541 billion

Imports fall as citizens become increasingly unable to purchase foreign goods. In addition, foreign goods become less available, and their cost goes up. While this further decreases the amount purchased, it inflates the value of the goods that are purchased.

Other notes:

None.

[Chile [MTTezla]]

GDP (PPP): $7.39 trillion USD
GDP Growth: 4.1%
GDP Growth Change: -7.8%

The PRC's economy was hit with a number of blows this year, which led to its collosal slowdown. It was kept from catastrohpe only because of rather strange government methods of fighting the problem, such as seizing private factories and forcibly keeping them in business. However, the fundamental problems in the economy remain. First, the country's largest buyer, the United States, has experienced a horrible economic downturn. Second, the country frightened away most of the rest of the world by bafflingly standing by while its citizens seized European and American property. Though most was retaken, returned, and reimbursed, foreign investors with many other options are hesitating to return to China. Further property seizures and the apparent inability to retake some American property have deeply shaken investors.

At the same time, domestic Chinese companies are hurting as exports dry up. Increased government spending is keeping production artifically high, but the artificially increased cost of doing business is driving private firms out of business rapidly. In addition, stockpiles of products are building up nationwide, as there are simply not enough buyers. These policies have shifted the majority of the economy from private to public, and have shifted GDP composition (to an extent) from Exports/Imports and Consumption to Government Spending and Consumption. This marks an interesting, but not necessarily good shift in the Chinese economy.

Inflation (CPI): 14.3%
Change: +9.3%

Inflation is starting to become a serious problem in China for multiple reasons. First, as foreign companies are (forcibly) kept from selling products, the price of imports is rising. Second, the increased government spending without necessarily having the revenues to back it is driving up inflation as well. Domestically-produced goods are slightly increasing in price in industrial centers, and increasing more dramatically in price in more agricultural areas, due to the strange effects of the strange Chinese economic policies. The effect is drastically increased poverty in most of China, in real terms.

Unemployment*: 2.1%
Change: -1.9%

Unemployment decreases extremely dramatically as production is forced to remain artifically high and as government projects to rebuild infrastructure progress. This is an interesting trend in the urban portions of China that is not replicated in the rural areas, where unemployment is rising, not falling. Combined with decreasing real wages, the rural Chinese are becoming extremely poorer.

Exports: $1.02 trillion
Change: -$.20 trillion

The Chinese export machine falters due to decreased demand internationally, decreased prices (which drive down the value of goods exported), and decreased confidence in the Chinese economy.

Imports: $904.4 billion
Change: -$0.2 billion

Imports decrease very slightly in value, but decrease more significantly in amount. The decreased delivery of imports is fueling the rise in prices, which keeps the value of imports more or less stable.

Other notes:

Gini Coeffecient: 0.58
Change: +0.11

The PRC experiences the largest change in Gini coeffecient of any nation outside of Africa this year, as rural Chinese become much poorer and as urban Chinese don't hurt as badly.

Financial statistics do not include Taiwan (Taipei), Hong Kong, or Macau.

*Chinese government statistics measure unemployment only in urban areas. Unemployment and underemployment are much higher in rural areas, and are both increasing.