First, a small explanation about how the RPing happening internationally is going to affect your economy (and thus, as I'm sure most of you are wondering, your military budget). The base of all economic changes is going to be the projections for growth for 2012 from the IMF. Obviously, many of these projections are invalid because of events that took place here that have not taken place (and likely will not take place) IRL. To accommodate those changes, GDP growth estimates are altered three times:
1. A global GDP modifier is added to everyone's
growth estimate. This reflects changing global conditions - for example, the existence of Eurobonds in this round, or the existence of massive global wars in other rounds.
2. A regional GDP modifier is added to countries in certain regions, based on major events that have happened there. These modifiers are derived from events that the econ team has observed or which have been reported. If you have a problem with the estimates, please post in this thread.
3. A national GDP modifier is then applied to countries based on their economic actions IC thus far. This is mostly based on what is reported to us in this thread
, but can also be derived from what the econ team has observed of your RPing.
Without further ado, here are the global and regional modifiers mentioned above:Global Modifier
There are relatively few major events that have happened that the IMF wouldn't have already accounted for in 2012. The first the issuance of Eurobonds, which is a sufficient tool to resolve, basically, the financial crisis in Europe. This has the spillover effect of greatly increasing liquidity and international confidence, improving the global economy and trade openness as a result. The price of oil has increased as a result of global instability, and especially the partial closure of the Suez Canal, which has shaken the confidence of investors that Egypt will live up to its commitments there. This, combined with an increased price of natural gas because of cartel rumors and trouble in Ecuador, has slowed growth slightly internationally.Modifier:
+0.3%Regional ModifiersAmericasNorth / Central America
Quite literally nothing out of the United States aside from Mitt Romney winning the Presidency. Continued sluggish growth and a slowly sliding dollar will make for very little action in the hemisphere. Deflator:
-Slightly lower deflater than last time. If the United States has no news, that's going to make people very nervous. Nervous enough to begin to slowly ship investments elsewhere.
-Lots of investment going on in Brazil and Chile, with little becoming of the Ecuadorean coup.Deflator:
-While the junta remains in power in Ecuador, initial fears of widespread military conflict and more debilitating instability have proven unfounded. While the UNASUR measures against the country hit with some impact in 2013, most effects are likely to have stabilized. The threat of conflict, of course, hangs like a specter over the continent.
-Given the calm, if not entirely stable, atmosphere, growth rates will only be somewhat dampened. The continent's real heavyweights (Brazil, Chile, Argentina) are far enough removed, geographically, from Ecuador and the threat of real conflict that there is likely to be stabilizing growth.
-Energy producers get a boost from higher oil prices throughout 2013. Europe
-Riots in France
-Huge UK austerity drive.
-Strengthening lender confidence and euro conversion due to Eurobond scheme + Debt guaranteesDeflator:
-Last year, Eurobonds bosted the continent out of certain demise thanks to a restoration of lender, investor, and debtor confidence. This year, the international joint-guarantee of European bonds is going to go a long way to significantly stabilizing the Eurozone especially, nearly to the point where there is very little to fear from an economic perspective. Of course, in Northern Europe, credit has always been well-regarded, so this development is reflected much more internally, with French, German, Dutch, and Scandinavian banks more confident, capitalized, and willing to make investments. A strong euro reinforces this.
-The UK remains an exception, with austerity still the word of the day in London. While no doubt what's good for the continent is good for London (especially in terms of London's financial markets) and a strong euro means more cross-investment and trade, internal politics have appeared to paralyze the British government. I wouldn't suggest a negative variable for Britain, but a much more muted +0.3-0.5% might be more appropriate.
-Spanish stimulus is coupled with debt guarantees, trade deals, and Eurobonds to significantly rebound the Spanish economy, and by extension debt-saddled European ones, as well.
-Riots in Spain, political instability in Italy, and high energy prices mute potential Champagne-popping festivities. Deflator:
+1.2%: Southern Europe reaps the same benefits as the North with the added bonus of now operating on something resembling a level playing field, significantly increasing their room to maneuver and ability to provide liquidity and stimulus in the wake of harsh austerity.
Eastern Europe / Balkans
-Russia reaps benefits of WTO membership, high energy prices, and European stabilization; promptly faces internal rebellion.
-Political wrangling in UkraineDeflator:
+0.5%: Eastern Europe is literally caught between Russia and the EU at all times. No nation (or even group of nations, really) is independently strong enough, economically, to really anchor the region in any meaningful way and those that could potentially be (Poland, Romania) are in the European Union. Therefore the entire region relies almost entirely on the economic performance of its two massive neighbors. Good news for them, of course, is that Russia and Europe are doing much better than in recent years. One or two more years of strong growth in Europe and this region could really take off. Asia and Oceania
-Tajikistan is caught up in a firestorm of violence. Deflator:
-Central Asia is no more tied to the EU's finances than the rest of the world, so they get the global bump. Russia is more closely tied, but that will be reflected in their individual GDP growth rate.
-Nothing happening here. India will, naturally, see modest FDI expansion leading to a bit of a bump this year, though much of the benefits of Amzi's post are policies which will reap more long-term benefits than immediate ones. (Nevermind that his reforms are the tip of the iceberg with regards to Indian politico-economic issues!) Regardless, much of that would be reflected in India's individual rate with minimal effects on the rest of South Asia.
-Nothing happening here.
-Not very much happening here, either, though Asia always wins when the west is doing well. This, of course, is offset by surging energy prices all throughout Asia for a variety of different reasons. Nothing to write home about, though, all told.
-Nothing happening here.Middle East and Africa
-The poor Middle East. Some members are trying so hard. In terms of the most economically important MidEast countries (Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia), Saudi Arabia - far enough removed from all of the violence and sitting on ever-more-valuable black gold - is the only one who isn't going to really suffer this year. The real energy giants (Iran excluded) will all do well, of course, but Saudi Arabia chief among them. Riyadh gets the enviable position of being able to cause mischief in the region without having to suffer much of the consequences. At least not immediately.
-Turkey and Egypt, as well as the entirety of the Levant, will suffer directly because of Syria, though among other things. All of that shiny investment made in Egypt will sit pretty in Alexandria's ports without too much to show for it until the region settles down. To boot, its main tourist area is under constant fire from someone