Switzerland: Journey to the West, USA-PRC

[China (Schwerpunkt)]

[Journey to the West]

Extraordinary meetings require extraordinary meeting places. Yang Jiechi was a firm believer in this. Presentation was not everything, but it was a solid seventy percent. And so Beijing spared nearly no expense organizing this meeting. The Chateau de Chillion, overlooking Lake Geneva, was normally a tourist attraction. But Beijing had a way of making things happen, of making money change hands, and the tourist trap was vacated for three days. Its usual security detail was replaced by a whole host of security personnel. Most were Chinese, but there were more than a few Americans; Washington liked to have its hands in everything and Beijing had acquiesced this time.

But the people present were mortal; they were ephemeral. The chateau was not. The chateau was old. Older than America. Not nearly as old as China, perhaps, but it positively exuded a sense of age. The calm, refined expertise of elder years was something Yang prided himself on. Gone were the days of fiery outbursts, of ranting at the sky; now he was a man in a suit, very much a man of quiet words and calm gestures. The tour thus far had been unremarkable; Berlin was reticent to embrace his plan, the Russians were Russian, and the Iranians were a good deal more stubborn than he had thought. Yang needed a win, and he needed one bad. But he could not let that color his meeting in any significant manner. If China didn't win here, it would win in a decade. If not then, then a decade later. The Han Chinese people traced their history back thousands of years -- another century was not an overly long period of waiting. But that didn't mean waiting was preferred.

And so Yang, standing on a balcony overlooking Lake Geneva, waited for the arrival of the American delegation. He quietly mulled over his planned speech, his spiel; his offer, his concessions, his rebuttals. He knew Clinton very well. He knew how she thought. He could half guess what she would say to just about anything and that, in turn, made crafting a response much easier. But then, convincing the Americans to sell Taiwan down the river mere months before elections? Difficult. Extraordinarily so.

[United States (Kartozeichner)]

Clinton was of course wondering about much as she arrived in Switzerland. It had been an uneventful flight from Lagos; she got some sleep and still had plenty of time for a briefing on what to expect. It was indeed extremely odd for the Chinese to so plainly request a meeting on Taiwan, and it only could betray something that the United States would not like. Surely they could not believe that the United States would simply abandon Taipei, regardless of what China meant for cross-Pacific relations--Taiwan was staunchly supported by the United States, even though it was a tight balance to hold between the two Chinas.

But there was nothing to say that the Chinese wanted that, either. There was simply too little to go on, nothing to know for sure about this conference. But the Secretary knew her position on Taiwan, and knew what she could do in concession, for she could not simply ignore the Chinese--but she could not forsake those of Taiwan.

The American delegation entered, exchanged proper pleasantries with their Chinese counterparts, and took their seats.

"I would like to defer opening comment to you, Minister."

[China (Schwerpunkt)]

Yang greeted his American counterpart with the same diplomatic courtesy he extended to everyone he met in this official role (except David Miliband, a man that just irked him too damned much). And he went into this meeting knowing full well that, of his meetings thus far, only two had proven a 'success' according to Beijing. And that was not nearly good enough for the veteran politician's last hurrah on the international stage.

So he went into the meeting with Clinton with the full intent to double down. He needed a win -- and a big one -- to secure for himself a nice retirement package. Failure to come through on this tour would likely mean a small shack in the middle of Sichuan; that was not exactly the kind of retirement Yang wanted.

"You wish to grant me the opening remarks? Thank you; I appreciate the opportunity. I do, after all, have something rather bold to propose to you. There is an American proverb that comes to mind: go big or go home. Well, Mrs. Clinton, you can certainly expect me to 'go big' here. I would not have spent several million Swiss francs securing this chateau if all I wanted was a glorified photo op.

"My communique to your State Department said I wanted to talk about that pesky island. I suppose I do. But Taiwan is not an integral piece of this puzzle. It's your bargaining chip, yes, and one that will land you a rather high return on investment, but Taipei is not the point of this meeting. I brought you here to discuss something bigger. Something bolder. Something..." Yang trailed off for a moment, as if trying to find the right word. "... more audacious than anything you've ever heard."

The Chinese ambassador paused. "That sounded a lot less melodramatic in my head," he commented off-handedly.

"Back to the matter at hand. China is not a rising power; we are a rising superpower. In five years we will achieve near-total military dominance of our littoral region. In ten years we will boast the world's second most potent military force. In fifteen years we will have full-blown carrier strike groups that can sail the oceans at will. In twenty years we will lead a federation of Asian states in an adapted European Union concept -- one centered firmly in Beijing. In twenty five years your allies in the region -- Australia in particular -- will fall firmly into our sphere of influence by sheer virtue of our economic might. In thirty years a unified Korea, having recovered from the shock of integration, will cast you off and throw in with us. In fifty years, Madame Secretary, China and America will be peers in every sense of the word.

"Your country is great. While my country may rail against or mock you in the media, there is no disputing that. You are a geopolitical force as constant as gravity; there is no scenario where China can rise without running into contention with America over spheres of influence. We will fence with you in Africa, a game we are currently winning. We will attempt to match you in Central Asia, a game that will likely favor us unless you manage to swing Iran to your side. The Russians will, in the fullness of time, embrace being 'European' and Europe will fall firmly out of your sphere of influence.

"Perhaps you will pick up India. Perhaps not. But that doesn't matter. Based upon where we are now, upon our national trajectories, we will collide. Petty issues will become enormously contentious simply because of national pride and honor. Disputes we can resolve amicably will turn into flashpoints for conflict. Energy, food, and water shortages will force us to become more and more desperate as we seek to provide for our own. The end result, Madame Secretary, is war. Every single simulation shows this. The simulations are inconsistent on who will make the first move -- sometimes China invades Alaska, sometimes America sponsors an invasion of Tibet, sometimes a false flag operation by a foreign power forces our hand. But the end result is always the same: war. It may come seventy years down the road, a hundred years, but it will come. And the world will not be ready for it. And this will happen because of shortcomings on both sides; there will be no truly 'evil' party, no side the historians can unilaterally declare to be the 'bad guys.' It will not be another 1937. Or 1939, if you prefer the Euro-centric date."

Yang paused then, as if disturbed by the distinctly morbid turn of his presentation.

"But you and I, sitting in this chateau, can change that. We can fix this so that our grand children and great grandchildren do not have to grow up in a world where China and America struggle openly on every conceivable issue, where tensions surge and rhetoric brainwashes billions. Do you want to know how we do this?"

Yang fished a remote out of his pocket and clicked once. A silvery screen descended down one wall. He clicked again, a few seconds later, and an image spread itself over that silvery screen. The screen displayed a single image: that of the globe, centered around the Pacific Ocean. On the left side was China, the far reaches of its western frontiers chopped off unceremoniously by the edge of the screen. On the right was America, with the Eastern Seaboard similarly dismembered.

"The Pacific Ocean. In the future, this will become one of the most highly contested regions in the world. Why? Not for resources, not for energy, but for trade and pride. We will send carriers -- you will stalk them. You will send carriers -- we will tail them. This endless game of cat and mouse will repeat itself in the Pacific Ocean on an annual basis, not unlike the changing of the guard at the border between India and Pakistan. Only instead of funny dances we will have warships equipped with nuclear weapons."

Yang clicked the controller again. China turned a brilliant red and America a deep blue. He clicked again and they each turned a deep purple. There was nothing fancy in the visual display: just a shift in color tone.

"I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we must create some grandiose quasi-United Nations centered in Beijing or Washington. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we must drag all our friendly states into this arrangement. No, the only countries involved are China and America.

"What I am proposing is very, very simple. No 'special relationship' involved. Your country and mine enter into a strategic partnership as equals, as peers. We will support you on matters that concern you -- Afghanistan, where I am willing to commit men and money, or Syria, where I am willing to commit China's political capital in a venture to bring down Assad. In return, you will support us in matters that concern us -- you will lend technical support and expertise to our counter-terrorism operations in Xinjiang and you will ensure that Japan remains firmly in the choker you set on them after the last war. On matters of mutual concern, such as Korea, we work together and find something that benefits us -- and that's really not that hard. Beijing has lost interest in Pyongyang and, for the right price, we'll back a unification plan under Seoul. But that's another discussion for another day.

"But this strategic partnership is not free. I already told you what the price is. My question is simple, Madame Secretary: are you prepared to play that bargaining chip?"

[United States (Kartozeichner)]

Clinton's jaw meant to hit the floor, but she held her composure.

Just what the hell is he proposing!? Does he really want to create some worldwide hegemony? Is he saying that we could join, that we could somehow work together to be.. to be what? In charge? And this is his ploy to kill Taiwan?

It was ludicrous, unexpected, against everything that the United State stood for.. and Clinton's party could never be re-elected with such an agreement.

"Now, sir, what you suggest is indeed 'big'. I can agree there. However, the real meat of your presentation is of course utterly unprecedented. Your prospective future for our relationships is very, very biased and very, very optimistic, and, sir, I would not count on it as factual. Quite frankly, I believe that much of your thinking is not realistic. You invited me here to discuss these matters with realpolitik in mind, and I was prepared in the proper manner to discuss things in such a way. However, this was not expected and I must deviate completely.

You are asking my nation to act extremely shrewdly in worldwide affairs, operating behind-the-table with a single other nation. While our nations would indeed have control over the entire world, we would have hegemony and would be able to work towards peace across the globe, it would be done unjustly and without morality. Honesty has to be at the forefront of the betterment of the world, and it should not be done in the back-tables of dark corners of our capitals.

Furthermore, you ask me to simply let go Taipei, which I simply cannot do. Taipei represents democracy and freedom in China, and that is something that the United States does, and shall, unwaveringly support. My nation is freedom, and my nation will support our allies in freedom. We cannot let Taipei go even for any hopes of worldwide security between your nation and mine. Loyalty is also one of the highest ideals in my society and my nation. The United States is willing to talk, yes, and to move to solve problems. I am willing here to attempt to solve problems between us. I am ready to discuss means of resolving conflicts and of maintaining security and economic growth in the region. But I cannot sit here and sign away my nations' allies."

The Secretary looked across the table with a level, steely gaze. Perhaps she had just talked away what could have ended up being something quite great--but American values had to hold strong. Didn't they?

[China (Schwerpunkt)]

Yang grinned wolfishly. "The claim that we have to be honest with everyone is downright foolish. Tell me, Madame Secretary: how many of your news agencies reported on what you offered us for our approval of the sanctions on Iran? As far as I can tell, none -- China just inexplicably shifted its view and threw in with the other four of the P5. There was no honesty to be found from your government there. You bought us with promises and pledges. And now you're threatening to renege on them.

"If you'd prefer, we can talk about this loyalty you enjoyed building up. Put bluntly, your government doesn't have any. The General Secretary was working with your boss almost from the very first day the election results came in. Together, they were outlining plans -- plans to cooperate on trade issues, including that monetary matter Obama made such a great big fuss about, and pledges to cooperate on issues of mutual concern were exchanged. And then, not two years later, your government approved a significant arms sale to Taipei, an entity that -- under American law -- is sub-national. It was such a ridiculous stunt that, according to the precedent set, we would be well within our rights to sell guns to an Alaska in the midst of open rebellion. Something I do believe you would object to.

"Or we can talk about freedom and how spectacular the regime in Taipei is. Tell me, Madame Secretary, how much do you know about the White Terror? Four decades of political oppression on par with that of the East Germans. And, before that, the KMT was responsible for mass executions, the liberal use of secret police, and exile for everyone who didn't agree with Chiang Kai-shek -- things that must sound very much like Stalin to you. And, after Chiang Kai-shek died, his son went on to rule for a full ten years. How very... democratic, yes? If you think Taipei represents "freedom and democracy in China," you are wrong. Do you know what Taipei is? It is a monument to foreign adventurism in Asia. The Chinese Civil War continues, not because a stalemate has been achieved, but because foreign powers refuse to let it end. We have repeatedly offered to confer upon that island a status not unlike that of Hong Kong or Macao; and you have repeatedly insisting on shipping them tanks and missiles. Taipei is a symbol of oppression, of imperialism. To pretend it is anything else is a miscarriage of this honesty you speak so highly of.

"But let us speak honestly, since you apparently value this. Taiwan cannot possibly withstand a military invasion by China. The battle would be over long before the American relief force arrived -- and, trust me, we would launch the invasion when you were most certainly unprepared. Likely when you were busy dealing with a quagmire in another one of your foreign adventures. Militarily, you would be obliged to rush in -- and, by the time you got here, you would find the battle over. What, exactly, would you do then? You'd turn around and you'd sail home. You would be humiliated and emasculated for your failure to defend a "country" you claimed you would defend. Tell me, what would constitute a larger blow to America's international standing? The military defeat of Taipei, certainly.

"Compare that quick-and-dirty victory to the prospect of war with North Korea. As time wears on, Pyongyang becomes more and more dangerous. Taiwan doesn't; any hope the KMT has of military parity with us died decades ago. But Pyongyang has enough men and war materiel to make an invasion extremely costly in both lives and funding -- not to mention the fact that they have nuclear weapons. And the longer you wait, the more deadly and prolific those nuclear weapons become. It is politically damaging for you to ship large quantities of arms to Taipei; the world barely notices when we ship supplies to the Koreans. The benefits of a closed land border, I suppose.

"Even without the prospect of a Sino-American alliance, the opportunity to trade Taiwan -- a bunch of rebels that offer you no strategic return on investment -- for Pyongyang is worth taking. Seoul and Tokyo would both welcome the dismantling of Pyongyang's nuclear weapon program. You know this. I know this. And we both know that you would love the opportunity to claim in future elections that it was you who was responsible for this. And we both know that even amongst the conservatives of your country there are pro-China cliques. Indeed, one of the initial candidates to run against President Obama was previously your ambassador to China.

"You have never before been offered such a lopsided deal. And -- trust me -- you will never get another one quite like this. Time favors us, not you. Do yourself a favor: think very, very hard about what you need to make this deal work. And then tell me. Because this deal is not just essential to your country's future -- it's also essential to your inevitable campaign for the presidency. It would be extraordinarily difficult for the Republicans to beat the woman responsible for ending the Chinese Civil War, disarming North Korea, and whatever else you feel inclined to take credit for."

[United States (Kartozeichner)]

"Different situations call for different means, Minister, you know this. Furthermore, the White Terror ended over thirty years ago. It was a terrible period, yes, but that period is over. The government of Taiwan is a democratically elected government that does not oppress its people."

I could not say the same of your China..

"Your continuing to threaten Taiwan is of course unsettling and is no excellent way to attempt to sway my mind. You know yourself that any invasion by your nation into the island of Taiwan would be met with massive force from many nations, not only the United States. I would warn you that a forced invasion of Taiwan would be grounds for a world war, seeing all nations which would be involved. It would be inerrant, and I wish to strongly dissuade you from even considering the prospect of an attack.

Surrendering Taiwan would send extremely poor messages to all American allies; you know as well as I that I cannot simply tell my nations' allies that my nation is willing to let them go 'for the greater good'. While it is certainly true that North Korea is a sharp thorn that must be eventually and rightfully dealt with, it cannot be done at the loss of another free state. And all of this aside--even if I was strongly considering your offer--how do you think I would be able to persuade Congress to repeal the Taiwan Relations Act? It could not be done in this administration, and who knows which the next shall be?

No, Minister, I am still extremely skeptical of your proposition, regardless of the potentially gratifying implications."

But, please, keep talking, she thought to herself, barely showing a hint of her thoughts on her face. Because I would love to rid the world of a rogue nuclear state.

[China (Schwerpunkt)]

Yang almost laughed. 'Massive force'? It took America three months to avoid a sovereign default -- to pass a resolution that, a year before, would've been considered routine. This was the country that was going to threaten China? A country that couldn't pay its current bills, that lived above its means, that lurched from one conflict to another?

"I invited you here to discuss Taipei in very blunt, very forthright terms. You have thus far failed to do anything but tell me 'no' -- you have not even attempted to make a counter-offer. Madame Secretary, have you been replaced by a Republican when I was not looking? Never before have I seen such blatant obstructionism from you. This kind of behavior harkens back to men like Boehner. Men who will likely win the election this coming November because your administration is apparently incapable of demonstrating any sort of foresight or strategic planning.

"Enjoy your flight back to Washington."

And, without so much as waiting to hear another word, the impossibly frustrated Yang left.

[United States (Kartozeichner)]

The only word that could cross the Secretary's mind was: Damn.