India-Japan Bilateral, 3Q2012

[India (Amzi)]

The press box was mostly isolated from the vociferous, as usual, atmosphere in the Feroz Kotla Cricket Grounds. At least in sentiment. The smells of vendor's spices and diesel fuel filled the cauldron-like stadium and the press box was not spared. The Kolkata Knight Riders were in town. Prime Minister Singh sat quietly in an arm chair, his experienced hands draped over the corners of the rests like they were carved there, observing his people. "I hope Noda doesn't want to mix with the locals," said Singh as his eyes fixed on one particular young Indian whose team spirit had compelled him to paint himself in an inartistic scheme of red and red. Another warm color, perhaps it was saffron, joined the fresco. The young Indian really let his inner excitement out. The scene was pitiful, but even more so was the indifference of those who surrounded him. Singh had to avert his eyes and slowly pivoted his head to the subject of his quip.

"What?"

"Nothing."

Singh stared without saying anything at Rahul Gandhi, who was absorbed in The Times of India, and then shifted his eyes once again to the spot of floor directly surrounding his feet. He had brought Rahul along at the insistence of his mother. For experience. She was considering getting him moved to Minister of State of External Affairs. That's as if Rahul needed handouts. The 42 year old General Secretary of the Indian National Congress was really quite remarkable. Perhaps he held in charm what he lacked in pure intellect, but Manmohan had found he held very little concern for means anymore.

The cultural buffet in the otherwise nondescript yet comfortable room, like the Indian statesmen, waited for their Japanese counterparts.

[Japan (X)]

Noda and his entourage had just made it. Lately, foreign policy had been a bit hectic. Israel, Australia, USA, hectic. But when the Indians called, the Japanese didn't hesitate. While Japan was very much the wealthier of the two, no one in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs doubted Indian potential. A population near as large as China, the preeminent country in the Indian Ocean, a locale as something of a strategic intermediary between the Near and Far East, as the British might have called it, considerable military force, up to and including the bomb.

The limousine parade advanced through New Dehli, India was on full display. Inside the tinted-windowed, bulletproof, shell it was all luxury and safety. Outside, madness and poverty. Street vendors flung their dirty appendages at anything that looked like it might have a wallet. The obviously homeless begged. Some of those with homes did, too. The air was a dirty collection of exhaust from all manner of fossil fuel contraptions, perhaps some industrial chemicals, and sweat. Unavoidable in the stifling, searing heat.

Which was precisely why Noda was here: people. They entered the Cricket Grounds (only in India would a Japanese delegation find themselves watching cricket), and made their way to the press box to meet Singh.

"Konnichiwa. Hello!"

[India (Amzi)]

Singh slowly, yet smoothly, rose from his chair to greet the Japanese. "Mr. Prime Minister, welcome to India". He would have worried about the quality of the venue if he didn't already know that Noda had driven through New Delhi to get here. He's already seen worse, thought Singh as he laughed to himself. Singh introduced his partner as he shook the hands of the foreigners. "We are joined today by Sri Rahul Gandhi, Secretary General of my Party, MP and son of one of my greatest friends, Sonia Gandhi. Please, sit."

The delegations sat and remained in silence for a few seconds as they situated themselves. Rahul then began, his youthful, strong voice a shocking departure from the Prime Minister's whisper. "Well, Mr. Prime Minister, Manmohan and I certainly have a long and substantive agenda for our meeting today, but I wouldn't be kind if I didn't ask you for your business first. Please..."

The two leaned back in their chairs, one leg crossed over the other. Singh was hoping for a home-run today. Japan and India shared much in the field of geopolitical interests. Primarily, a sort of sober containment for their mutual concern, China. He doubted Japan thought of China as an outright adversary. Perhaps it was out of respect or survival, but the thought was mutual. The unique combination of shared perspective and reality was promising to the Prime Minister.

[Japan (X)]

Noda had been hoping to be black in this chess game. Relations with India were a precarious matter for Japan. Not because of tension, but rather because Japan was not confident that its ties with India were of necessary amplification, even if Japan desired them. Noda didn't hesitate though, he knew what needed to be done here. A careful move. He cast his gaze in the general direction of one of his aides. Gently, but forcefully. He would move a pawn.

Noda allowed but a short, terse sentence to escape his mouth: "Allow me to introduce Mr. Yamamoto. No relation to Isoroku Yamamoto." He gave a short chuckle, and, for a moment was tempted to add: "Unfortunately." as an aside. He didn't, though. Social graces and what not. Whatever.

Yamamoto began: "For us, America has long been our superpower patron, if you will. They still are our staunchest allies. In Japan, though, we are less interested in relying on American might to protect us as before. This does not mean we intend to cast off from American wings. However, we are acutely aware of the necessity of greater ... ties ... relations, with other nations in Asia which transcend those we possess at present.

At the same time, it is becoming abundantly clear to us that China is a rising power, potentially a 'near-peer' of the United States. This is doubly important for those nations in the region, like ourselves, because China is far more immanent to Asian politics than America -- this we admit, even with our historical rivalry and then alliance with Washington. Power itself, is not a bad thing. Many countries have been reliable, peaceful patrons of influence.

China is thus not an enemy, but a concern. Aggressive assertions of ... highly ambitious territorial claims and provocative actions are disappointing to Tokyo. Asian prosperity, from Japan to India to China to Australia to South Korea to Singapore has been built on trade and peace. A country which is willing to take chips at peace threatens trade and stability, and threatens to damage everyone in the region.

As such, we are proposing a regional security organization, which would have a dual function to promote general ties between nations. This organization would not at first, anyways, include a mutual defence clause, although this is an option we would be willing to discuss in future. Instead, we envision something like military standardization protocols (not unlike NATO), frequent joint exercises in order to share ideas, evolve capabilities, and develop mutual understanding, and the creation of joint missions to respond to needs in peace and war alike. Simply put, such an organization would show both the diplomatic resolve of member states to regional stability, and develop the capability to shield it from harm.

We have also approached the Australians with the idea, in that meeting, I believe Gemba, the foreign minister, used the name AOCO (Asia and Oceania Cooperation Organization). India, to us, is a natural partner. India is the world's largest democracy. The second most populous nation. The preeminent power in the Indian Ocean region. The third largest economy by GDP, under PPP measures. India shares values, has extreme relevance to the cause of regional security, and has excellent potential. In short, we see your nation as a potentially potent and trustworthy partner."

Prime Minister Noda gave a smile. Not bad, this Yamamoto guy.

[India (Amzi)]

Singh remained silent for a few seconds, then spoke.

"A security organisation with the existential purpose of excluding China seems a bit provocative. Quite adversarial, actually. India certainly is looking for expanded cooperation with Japan and all the mentioned potential AOCA members, certainly. I'm not so certain, however, that this cooperation needs to come at the expense of China's. Perhaps China will not be cordial regardless, but the idea of explicitly betraying relative non-alignment, official non-alignment at least, comes off as reckless". Singh stopped and let his eyes survey the room while he pondered the thought. "I'm not convinced one way or the other. India has a long agenda of significant cooperation that could be pursued beyond the proposed AOCA, but continue with your pitch and we'll see where the lines cross later on. I'm simply looking to be reassured that this investment outweighs those we'll have to surrender indefinitely".

[Japan (X)]

"A mutual, defensive compact between nations is only offensive to those who desire aggression against those weaker than themselves. And of course, we don't see such a pact as having a strict purpose of presenting some sort of united front against the Chinese. Such an organization would deter war in the region between all parties, preventing aggression by any nation. Take a look at ASEAN. Prior to the organization's foundation, the nations of ASEAN were under duress of many internal struggles. As ASEAN solidified relations between the members, peace and extraordinary economic growth followed.

We see the lessons learned in Southeast Asia regarding peace and growth as being applicable on a much larger scale, to true regional powers like India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. Similarly, NATO in Europe, after the Cold War has promoted cooperation between nations, and between that and the European Union has largely kept Europe free of the bloody wars which plagued it from 1945 backwards."

[India (Amzi)]

Singh thought. Abandoning formal alliance with China was a risky game to play in Asia. A Sino-Indian partnership would most certainly be hegemonic. The combination would prove unquestionably economically, militarily and politically dominant in Asia-Pacific. Life would be easier at China's side. As Noda mentioned Europe's bloody pre-1945 wars, however, Singh felt an unsettling harmony with Neville Chamberlain. The feeling fell deep in to his stomach and Singh was determined to shake it.

Noda was right. An allied India and China may provide temporary hegemony, but the end scenario was frightening and seemingly unavoidable. To ally with China would put the bloc at firm odds with whatever Japan's organization turns out to be and, most importantly, the United States. The position would be explicitly adversarial. So would Japan's, but the latter would provide something the former would entirely obliterate - balance. An alliance with China, Singh thought, seemed to be a suicide pact. An alliance with Japan guaranteed a future.

India, not just for her sake, simply had to participate in the balancing act.

"India is intrigued. If AOCA is to operate as you previously explained, I think India is willing to join Japan on this leap of faith and take the next step - which is?" finished Singh, allowing Noda to explain his plan forward.

[Japan (X)]

Prime Minister Noda's face remained lifeless. He was, at least internally feeling slightly relieved and excited at the prospect of partnership with the undisputed leaders of the subcontinent.

"The next step? The next step would be to formally draw such a compact between peoples out of the existential void as it were and into being -- a conference between Japan, India, and other interested parties. There we would hope to find common ground both for a formal text and as a method of outlining further progress, agreeing on an unshakable frame to build the Asian house of peace with. To extend the the analogy backwards, this principle of interest between states represents a foundation, then we can find a frame, and then build."

[India (Amzi)]

"Excellent, I eagerly await the conference. In the meantime India has some proposals. I preface this by saying I agree that Japan and India share a common concern in our neighbor and a common interest in the peace that will result from our cooperation. Whether AOCA pans out or not, India wants Japan's friendship."

"One major, common area of concern I would like to address is resource acquisition. I don't think I need to explain to you the significance of this issue as both of our nations continue to grow in a world slowly being depleted of its resources. So, my first proposal is that India and Japan become intimately involved in each other's manufacture of mineral resources and exploitation of future, joint-projects. As we continue in the development of our thorium mining, we can supply Japan with the material for your domestic nuclear project. Besides being remarkably efficient, thorium is also relatively stable and doesn't require pressurization - an accident like Fukishima will never occur. India also has potentially large reserves, some of the largest in the world, of certain rare earth minerals and we would greatly welcome Japanese cooperation in the development of those. Likewise, Japan has made some promising discoveries the find of an estimated 6.8 million tonnes of minerals near Minami-Torishma Island. India Rare Earths Limited, India's state owned venture, would be very interested in assisting Japan in the development of those reserves."

"In this regard, we would also like to cooperate beyond our own borders. India and Japan should cooperate on the exploration and manufacture of rare earth minerals in Vietnam, where Japan has taken the lead. Likewise, India has secured the rights to promising rare mineral fields in Tajikistan where we would love to include Japan, pending the Tajik's permission. Additionally, we own the rights to some of the most stocked mineral fields in Afghanistan including the Hajigak Mine containing an estimated 1.8 billion metric tons of iron and copper ore where Japanese involvement could be welcome. We should also look to explore together. Afghanistan, who India maintains a friendly relationship with, may hold trillions of dollars in minerals including lithium and petroleum. Eastern Africa, the continent in fact, holds vast amounts of unexploited oil and gas which we could obtain with minimal investment. Central Asia, too. India and Japan should seek to cooperate in obtaining these resources and using them. We could cooperate on securing pipelines and shipping routes for the transport of these precious resources as well."

"I hope you understand how soothing this would be to both of our economic and strategic needs and that it would mean a long time of cordial Japan-India relations. What do you think of this?"

[Japan (X)]

"Japanese access to Indian supplies of Thorium is greatly appreciated. I believe Japan's Mitsui Group would be quite interested in heading such a venture. It is a remarkable and positive symbol of how far India has come that you are offering to assist us in developing our rare earth deposits. There are enough rare earths on the island to supply Japanese need for two centuries. While our own needs are important first, Indian investment will naturally be rewarded in financial terms.

We are further interested in further exploration for rare earths worldwide. Nevertheless, we have some political concerns. Afghanistan is highly unstable, and we need an understanding that business ventures must not be compromised over ... ideological disagreements with the local government, whatever that may be. While it is admirable and possible for us to work to temper the flames in the country and support the regular people, we do not want to be dragged into a vicious conflict if we can avoid it.

For geographic reasons, while we are interested in Central Asia, we would prefer joint Indo-Japanese efforts to focus on Africa and Vietnam over Central Asia. Central Asia may be 'close' to India, but the lack of suitable ports makes importing production there to Japan problematic. On the other hand, joint work in more accessible areas of the world sounds a superb proposition."

[India (Amzi)]

"I believe we should put Mitsui Group in contact with the Nuclear Power Corporation of India. When Japan is prepared to take on the construction of a thorium reactor, India will gladly donate human resources who have unprecedented experience and expertise in the field."

"In regards to Afghanistan, I think the potential reward greatly makes up for the risk. The risk is greatly minimized by geography, for you. If security issues arise, it will be more of an Indian concern than that of Japan. That's not to say we shouldn't share concern in our relationship, but convenience must be taken into consideration. For that reason, I believe Japan should delay judgement on our Central Asian prospects. There is a reason a Great Game was played for the region, Mr. Prime Minister. For reasons of convenience, most action carried out in the region will likely be Indian, but that does not preclude Japanese cooperation. Just like the Pacific deposits will, naturally, fall into Japan's realm, it does not preclude Indian cooperation. ((What I'm trying to say is we don't have to be holding hands to do something. Individual exploits can be shared between friends.))"

"My next offer will, if accepted, represent a major milestone in Indo-Japanese strategic cooperation - reciprocal berthing rights for our respective Navies. India currently enjoys such arrangements with Oman and, more recently, Vietnam. I think similar arrangements would be natural for AOCA if the organisation materializes. Likewise, it should be natural for us to take the lead. Such a pursuit will certainly make a statement in South and East Asia. So much so that I believe it may be mistaken as adversarial, which is why I understand if you are hesitant."

"Also, the Indian Space Research Organization will be launching the GSLV-III in the next few weeks. We would enthusiastically welcome a delegation from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency as honoured guests. Perhaps this could be the preface to further space cooperation."

[Japan (X)]

"Excellent.

I apologize for any confusion. I think we are arguing the same point in different language. What I am saying is Tokyo doesn't just find it distasteful to, but impossible to extricate itself in Afghan power struggles. We would be perfectly willing to do business in Afghanistan so long as convenience is taken into political consideration. We are after all involving ourselves in the political economy of another state.

I might introduce the notion that Great Game greatly overstated the power of Russia at the time and underestimated the strength of nations characterized by geographic exteriority (like Great Britain) to choke an entire continent if they so desired. But I suppose we're not historians and we shouldn't quibble over such a thing. In principle, then, yes, we are willing to agree, although our commitments will be significantly less in Central Asia than Afghanistan or elsewhere.

We are concerned on two counts over mutual berthing rights. Firstly, it is difficult enough for the Americans to convince the Japanese people in some regions to allow their presence, allowing for an Indian presence would at this point in time be substantially more difficult." Noda thought to himself for a second, considering the potential to add: "and not something worth me losing an election over" but checked himself. He continued:

"Secondly, Japan's own status on deployments abroad is even shakier. The PKO law codified Japan's right to deploy non-combatants abroad for humanitarian reasons. Thus, we deployed to Iraq, but our people were not there to fight a war. Similarly, we have deployed on anti-piracy missions, which is a similar endeavor. In fact, in the case of anti-piracy cases, we could probably make the case that we are so dependent on maritime trade that serious piracy represents a de facto breach of Japanese security and justifies operations of the Self-Defence Forces in international waters. As such, our first foreign military base was opened in Djibouti.

Thus, while we could theoretically accept such an agreement, it would have little more practical efficacy than a joint military mission to occupy the moon. Not that either are bad ideas" Noda joked. Allowing the chuckle to subside, he went on again -- he also wondered if his Indian counterpart was at risk of falling asleep thanks to the intricacies of Japanese domestic politics. Noda had even seen it happen to Japanese politician once.

"Instead, I propose that in principle Japan and India agree to enact mutual basing in times of crisis in keeping with the very contingencies of the immediate situation. Moving forwards, then, we would be willing to conduct joint deployment exercises of task forces to India, and accept similar groups to Japan, perhaps on a once annual basis in each nation. Thus, we would develop familiarity and build an understanding of how to conduct operations in support of the other, without posing any permanent physical, financial, or political burden.

Due to Japanese concerns over dual-use technology and India's nuclear proliferation, we wouldn't be willing to conduct joint activities regarding rocketry, yet. On the other hand, we would gladly participate in other aspects of space programs: command and control, satellite construction, and space exploration devices.

This notion brings me to another point: Japan is willing to send mediators in an attempt to defuse India's South Asian arms rice and seemingly perpetual struggle with Pakistan. We want to see peace on the subcontinent between all peoples. Ideally, we would like to see substantial steps taken to bring Pakistan and India closer, a reconciliation over border disputes and accusations of terrorism, and simultaneous acquiescence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. What do you think of such a proposition?"

[India (Amzi)]

Singh was disappointed that Japan had taken issue with mutual berthing rights, though he of all people understood the intricacies of a democracy. If Noda was worried about how Singh was receiving this, he shouldn't have been. India and Japan shared democracy. The only difference being, of course, India's parliament more resembled a detention facility.

"I'm sorry to hear that mutual berthing will not be a reality, but I an happy to agree to your proposal. Mutual basing seems to be, after all, my proposal without the pomp and a little more circumstance. The excercises, likewise, sound agreeable. I'd just like to add that India and Japan should make efforts in any future exercises to include our neighbors, notably Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and the like."

"As for the space program ((I assume you're fine with sending a delegation to the launch? It would be purely ceremonial.)) I have another proposal. I would like to have ISRO establish an ISTRAC facility in Japan. ISTRAC is the ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network of India's space program. As the name implies, the facilities are involved in data acquisition as well as health analysis and control, orbit and attitude determination and network co-ordination support to all Low Earth orbit satellite missions of ISRO throughout their mission life. In addition, ISTRAC provide the support for India's international launches. There are currently 6 ISTRACs scattered around India and we operate facilities in Mauritius, Russia, Indonesia, Brunei, Norway and even in Antarctica. ISRO would have to determine the best location in Japan for the facility, minding Japan's limited available space. Once in operation, ISRO could progressively employ and train Japanese technicians and scientists who will learn how ISRO operates. After a few years this will greatly simplify cooperative development, including if Japan would like to launch satellites via ISRO - ISRO has a long history of performing such foreign launches and the GSLV-III, [which your delegation will observe launching], will almost entirely emancipate us from foreign space programs."

"I don't believe Japan would be very useful, unfortunately, in attempting to solve the Indo-Pakistan dispute in it's entirety. To be frank, Japan holds no grounds to be mediator in a dispute over an issue like Kashmir. That, I'm afraid, will be solved from either direct India-Pakistan negotiation, or through a significant multinational forum. However, India would welcome Japanese involvement in ventures which will lead to further cooperation and, thus, will ease tensions. Notably, trade and business relations. All nations stand to benefit from increased Indo-Pakistani economic interaction and perhaps you can help us convince Islamabad of that. My administration has been eager to lower not only tariffs, but also destroy trade barriers like stringent certification codes, customs rules, security clearances and movement restrictions. Perhaps, if we were to host a business summit of sorts between Japan, India and Pakistan, Islamabad will see that such reformations are not driven solely by self-interested Indian parties. Terrorism, additionally, can be framed in a cooperative sense and could be discussed. We must insist it is in the format of a business summit, however. Since Japan has unprecedented experience in the dangers of nuclear weapons, perhaps we could expand our discussion to that area once assembled, but the auspices must be a bit less monumental."

[Japan (X)]

"Of course. It would be particularly salient to perform such exercises as part of broader AOCO operations, including the countries you mentioned -- pending next year's conference, of course.

To confirm, we are still intending to accept your proposal regarding Japanese observation of the launch, I was merely outlining Japanese political concerns about the misuse of science, drawing boundaries, as it were. We would also be interested in Indian ISTRAC facilities being established in Japan. To go further, we are curious as to whether India would be interested in amalgamating our manned moon-landing programs into one joint program, aiming to put men on the moon (again) in 2020.

I understand your position on Pakistan. We would be willing to help foster such economic ties, and hopefully anti-terror and non-proliferation policies as well."

[India (Amzi)]

"Excellent. When ISRO has identified possible locations for ISTRAC, you will be notified and consulted ((I suppose I'll just PM you when I have some candidates))."

Singh pondered the Prime Minister's amalgamation proposal. "Before we get into our manned programs, I'd like to offer a mission similar to Chandrayaan-2 to JAXA. For the Chandrayaan-2 project, Russia and India have teamed up with the goal of putting an orbiter, rover and lander on the moon in 2014. Throughout the process our space programs have become intimately familiar with each other, each gaining invaluable knowledge. For this specific mission the responsibilities were divided between ISRO and RKA; India is developing the orbiter and rover while Russia is developing the lander. Of course, the mission is saddled on India's GSLV Mk II. We could see a similar arrangement with Japan being worked out so that we have this mission reaching the Moon by 2016, seeing as though all of the development will have already been finished. In fact, the mission might be exceedingly simple as, by that time, India's GSLV-III will be developed which significantly raises the ceiling on weight, easing design intricacies. Japan is currently developing a similar project, the SELENE-2. SELENE-2 could easily be merged with the experience India will have gained from Chandrayaan-2. This is a project India would happily embark upon with Japan."

"Additionally, pending the use, India would welcome Japan piggy-backing satellites off our GSLV and PSLV launches at a discounted price."

"I would gladly agree to uniting our manned programs. Japan offers the brightest scientists and technicians in the world and India offers extensive infrastructure and experience. We currently have a goal of a launch by 2020 while Japan has a very rough goal of 2030. If we were to unite our programs, capital and ambition, I think we could easily make the former. Unfortunately, the national pride the manned program carries inevitably ties it to Indian politics, and you and I both understand the complexities our parliaments can add to a project. I'm sorry to say that I don't think I can guarantee anything today on our manned programs other than a genuine attempt to win support for it in New Delhi. Perhaps we could reconvene on this issue in a few months, which would give me enough time to test the waters in New Delhi and for you to consult whoever it is that you need to consult. I thought I would wait on this invitation until the end of the meeting," said Singh with a smile, "but January 26th seems too perfect of a date to reconvene on this matter and the others we have discussed. Prime Minister Noda, I would like you to serve as Chief Guest at Delhi's Republic Day parade". ((We aren't obligated to have another meeting then, although we could.))

[Japan (X)]

"Japan would be interested in Indian involvement in the SELENE-2 program. Similarly, if and when Indian satellite launches help us best meet objectives we would be interested in cooperating with piggy-back launches.

I would be honored to serve as Chief Guest, and with both of us pushing for united manned space programs, hopefully furthering the cause will be something we can at the very least talk about, if not agree on anything concrete by then."

[India (Amzi)]

"Wonderful. I think we've accomplished a great deal and could adjourn proudly, unless you have something else you'd like to add?"

[Japan (X)]

"No, I think we've accomplished a lot here -- and anything else can wait for another day."

Meeting Summary:

1. India and Japan agree to increase security cooperation, attend future inaugural Asia and Oceania Cooperation Organization conference, engage in joint deployment exercises.

2. India and Japan agree to cooperate in resource development; chiefly Thorium in India and Rare Earths in Japan.

3. India and Japan agree to work together to develop resource deposits worldwide; particularly in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Vietnam, and Africa.

4. India and Japan agree to work together to integrate space programs.