Turkish News Digests

[Turkey (Dax)]

This thread will be used for the purpose of publishing articles, analysis, and news snippets from news agencies around the country.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News from Around Turkey

Israel in Historic Apology to Turkey

The Israeli President has issued what amounts to a historic apology to the Turkish state and Turkish people last night over the 2010 deaths of nine Turkish activists in a military operation gone horribly wrong off the coast of Gaza Strip.
The 2010 incident, in which activists had been attempting to break the blockade of Gaza and deliver aid supplies, had frozen relations between Turkey and Israel, leading to a frost in diplomatic relations from which many analysts insisted the two former allies would never recover. The apology, though accepted by Erdodan's government, is said to have left something to be desired and still rests much of the blame on the deceased, though the government has agreed to meet the Israeli foreign minister in Ankara later this week.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Foreign Ministry Meets Iran and Israel This Week

Due to an admittedly significant quirk in Turkish foreign policy and largely illustrious to the quagmires it often finds itself in with regards to it's relatively open foreign policy, the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Ahmet Davutoglu is scheduled to meet with both his counterparts from Iran and Israel this week, less than three days apart from each other.

Admitting the scheduling snafu, the foreign ministry released a statement which confirmed that the two arch-rivals would be entertained in the very same building in Ankara by Davutoglu, and it isn't difficult to speculate that the topics for discussion would prmarily revolve around each other. Turkey's foreign policy in the region has regularly resulted in awkward turns-of-events for Erdogan's government, and no doubt has often found it near-impossible to maintain a steady hand in dealing with decidedly erratic leaders from both Israel and Iran.

Far from the mediator role that Erdogan has attempted to cast Turkey in, wherein solid relations with both countries has led to a natural, neutral arbiter and a bridge between the diametric interests of both sides of the conflict, Erdogan has found himself and his foreign policy challenged at every turn, by both parties involved and those abroad. Certainly, the killing of nine Turkish activists in 2010 by Israeli Special Forces saw an overwhelmingly frosty development of relations with Israel, and many analysts and politicians alike saw the end of the famed Turko-Israeli partnership; damaged irreparably. Simultaneous warming of relations with Tehran seemed to permanently rupture any hope of Turkey taking the lead in mediation between the West and Iran.

However, thanks to the natural competing interests of Ankara and Tehran in the region and beyond -- competing interests that largely have nothing to do with Iran's nuclear development -- as well as the unfolding of the Arab Spring,a wedge has been driven between the two. In Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, Turkey supports moderate Islamist factions while Iran funnels resources and money into more radical camps, hoping for allies in which to consume the West's ire and taking the pressure off of Tehran, even if only temporarily. Likewise, Syria sees the most extreme divergence, with Turkey's about-face turning against the Assad dynasty after years of sheltering the dictator, and Iran clinging to its only real ally left in the region.

Turkey and Iran, it has been said, are natural competitors. Just as Persia and the Ottomans competed for influence in the Levant, Turkey and Iran's competition for the hearts, minds -- and most importantly, money -- of the Arab world is as inevitable as Turkey's ultimate strategic 'pivot' eastwards was. However cordial relations between Tehran and Ankara are or may be in the future, it should not be considered that they are allies. Geopolitics precludes any serious allegiance, even discounting Turkey's long-standing relationship with the West.

Treading Water. Foreign Minister Davutoglu meets his Iranian counterpart in Ankara, emphasizing the cordial relationship with Iran. But how much longer can the entende last in the face of western pressure?

[Turkey (Dax)]

Bomb Blast in Hatay Prompts Army Response

The blast occurred at a routine border crossing in the border town of Kafar Houm in Hatay Province, on the Syrian border, at approximately 5pm local time. The perpetrator, an apparent suicide bomber, attempted to smuggle the homemade explosive over the border before being stopped by Syrian border guards. According to border officials, the bomb was "very close" to being smuggled into Turkey, and thanks only to the diligence of the Syrian National Council did the bomber not make it across the border into Turkey proper.

The Turkish Red Crescent humanitarian agency estimated that approximately 12 people were injured in the blast, which killed four others including two border guards from the Syrian National Council. Hatay Governor Mehmet Celalettio Lekesiz called the attack "barbaric and heinous", vowing to ensure that security at the border was maintained and calling upon Ankara to deploy additional assets to ensuring security along the Syrian border.

Rife speculation that the bomber was an agent of the troubled Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, have not been confirmed, and defense and intelligence officials have stated that as yet, they do not have evidence that the bomber was working for the Assad regime, and have stressed that suicide bombing is a trademark of many terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, the PKK, and other factions, all of which operate freely in the chaos in Syria. "There are many people who would like to see the chaos in Syria spill over into Turkey, and there are many motivations for wanting to destabilize the Syrian-Turkish border." Defense officials confirmed that no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, and while there were no leads, intelligence officials and local police were working tirelessly to gather evidence.

Addressing the nation in the hours following the blast, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan refrained from placing blame on any particular group, even suggesting that the attacker was a lone operative. However, Erdogan repeated his call for Bashar al-Assad to step aside and make room for democratic changes in the country.

"Events like the blast on the Hatay border are only possible because of the lack of order and security in Syria. Such chaos emboldens and encourages would-be terrorists to strike, knowing that they face impunity in Syria. The crisis in Syria will only end with the Syrian military ceasing its assault on Syrian civilians and Assad stepping aside. Such a course of action would restore order and ensure the safety and security of the people caught in the middle of this terrible conflict."

The Prime Minister's words are not likely to strike the heartstrings of the Syrian dictator, however, and Erdogan ended his call for Assad to step down with a warning that "attacks against Turkey will not be tolerated, and efforts to destabilize the Republic will be faced resolutely and unwaveringly. The Turkish Republic will swiftly confront all elements which seek to undermine it's authority swiftly and decisively."

Prime Minister Erdogan called for Assad to step aside, stressing that the breakdown of order allows would-be terrorists impunity. He also warned that threats against the Turkish nation would be dealt with 'resolutely'. Breaking from the government's long-standing policy of ambiguity and promoting dialogue and negotiations, does this signify a shift in policy towards a strict demand that Assad step down? How far is the Prime Minister willing to go to enforce the will of the Syrian opposition?

[Turkey (Dax)]

Davutoglu: Iranian Nuclear Deal 'Close'

At the end of the first day of a two day meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has announced that a Turkish-sponsored compromise intent on settling long-standing disputes and suspicions regarding Iran's nuclear program is "very close to being made". Davutoglu hailed Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who is in Ankara this week for talks, as a "visionary" and a "bold statesman".

Tensions over Iran's controversial nuclear program have been brewing for several years, with tensions threatening to culminate in bona fide conflict in recent months. As UN and western sanctions grow ever tighter, Israel has openly suggested that it may target Iran's nuclear facilities unilaterally if progress is not made with haste. Iran, for its part, has threatened "unrelenting retaliation" for such a strike, even threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. The war of words has come very close on a number of occasions to open warfare, and the assassination of Iranian scientists and Israeli diplomats suggests that low-level warfare has already begun. Indeed, some have suggested that Iran is behind the unrest in Gaza which resulted in an indisputably heavy-handed Israeli response.

With sanctions beginning to bite with gusto, the European Union's oil boycott (as well as major Asian customers actively searching for alternative sources), and Syria in flames, Iran is finding itself in unprecedented isolation, which may force the regime to change course. Realizing that Tehran may not hold quite as much leverage as it did once upon a time, desperation may give way to submission, though the extent of Iranian cooperation remains to be seen.

Ankara, via the government of Prime Minister Erdogan, has presented itself has a vital lifeline to Iran to the international community, and has repeatedly attempted to mediate the dispute. The last major attempt in 2010 saw a major breakthrough deal mediated by Erdogan and then-Brazilian President Lula da Silva, which Ankara and Brasilia praised as a significant victory. The deal was ultimately rejected by Western powers, and the foreign ministry has insisted that the new deal will not repeat the same mistakes, and would "satisfy all of the international community's demands, while maintaining the integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran".

No details have yet emerged regarding what a potential deal may entail, though analysts expect a luke-warm response from western powers. Though eager to end the escalation, western governments are skeptical of supposed "breakthroughs", having been down this road many times before. "Iran in the past has played the same game that North Korea plays: aggression, hostility, and rhetoric followed by periods of cooperation and reconciliation. The desperation for a resolution is used as a bargaining chip." The differences, of course, are clear: North Korea already possesses nuclear weapons technology.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey...

Istanbul Olympic Bid Proceeds to Candidate Status

Istanbul's 2020 Summer Olympics Bid has been chosen among the three-city shortlist to host the world's largest international sporting event, according to an announcement by Quebec-based IOC Executive Board. Istanbul was chosen among five cities and will compete with Baku, Azerbaijan and Tokyo, Japan.
Yalcin Aksoy, the head of the Turkish National Olympic Committee, expressed optimism about the bid, saying that Istanbul satisfied all of the requirements that the IOC was looking for, including the expressed want to host the Games in a city which never has. This is Turkey's fifth bid to host the games, after four which were unsuccessful, and with Budapest have the record of the most bids without winning one.

Erdogan Condemns Iranian Fatwa Against Italy

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has publicly condemned an Iranian fatwa calling for the attack on Italian peacekeepers in the Middle East, calling the religious judgement a severe and grave threat to security and international peace, and a "twisted manipulation of religious decree by the Iranian leadership." The fatwa was issued after Italian diplomats proposed a further Italian peacekeeping mission in Jerusalem, called al-Quds by Muslims.
Erdogan called specifically for Ayatollah Khamenei to condemn the fatwa, urging the Iranian Spiritual Leader to take a stand for religious principles. "If there is any perception among the Christian world that Islam is a violent and spiteful religion, it is due primarily to acts such as these, which inspire hate and reprisal in an already explosive area of the world. The Iranian Leader should exercise wisdom and jurisprudence to use his religious influence and authority to take a stand against terrorism, especially that which is directly sponsored within Iran."
The unusually strong wording of Erdogan's statement comes at a time of increased tension between ethnic and religious factions in the Levant, spurred on at least in part by the violence in Syria. Erdogan's government has typically sought to find accommodation with Iran, even while distancing itself from more radical elements in the Iranian establishment.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Turkey Eyes Infrastructure, Central Asia for Economic Growth

The government will look to internal infrastructure and increasing trade ties to Central Asia to promote economic growth, according to a white paper released in the Ministry of Economy this week on Turkey's continued economic development. The paper stressed boosting trade ties to "Turkic States in Central Asia" as critical to the diversification of Turkey's export market, as well as generating internal economic activity through various infrastructure, some of which on-going.
The Economic Minister's annual release recognized Turkey's primary trade partners in the European Union as an economic liability, stating that the Global Financial Crisis has weakened European and other western markets, leading to a slowdown in demand for Turkish exports. Meanwhile, imports from the European Union have increased on the weakness of the Euro, threatening Turkey's coveted trade surplus with the EU and the stability of the Turkish lira. The paper also identified Turkey's increasing trade ties with the Arab world as needing careful monitoring, as unrest in Arab states may threaten Turkey's economic interests, as showcased in Syria.
Central Asian countries have always been a periphery of Turkish interest, though the fall of the Soviet Union saw a widening of Turkish engagement with ethnically Turkic nations in the former Soviet sphere. In 2009, the Turkic Council was established between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan as a forum for wider inter-Turkic engagement. Progress on the establishment of a Turkic Business Council has been slow, though steady. The white paper indicated that Ankara could step up efforts to promote further progress, with the ultimate goal of a Turkic Free Trade Agreement and further economic integration.

Turkey Desires Further Defense Integration With the European Union

The Turkish Minister of National Defense İsmet Yılmaz has stressed that Turkey is desirous of closer defense integration and collaboration with the European Union on a trip to Saudi Arabia. Speaking at the Turkish-GCC Summit in Riyadh, Yılmaz outlined the various ways in which the EU and Turkey stood to benefit from increased integration of Turkish defense elements into the European structure.
Yılmaz called for greater strategic cooperation between Europe and Turkey on regional initiatives, including security in the Mediterranean and Northern Africa, as well as joint-missions in the Balkans and peacekeeping missions around the world. Bringing to mind the stagnant European Battlegroups concept, of which Turkey is part, the Defense Minister called for reform of the scheme to better reflect geopolitical realities.
Turkey also has long been urging for a more comprehensive security relationship between European and Turkish Defense industries. EU and Turkey share some limited cooperation in the defense sector, notably in the Airbus A400 project, and Turkey is a partial participant in some EU Defense structures, such as the OCCAR and the European battlegroups scheme. However, such participation is sporadic, ad hoc, largely symbolic, and limited in scope. Yılmaz has stated that Turkey and the EU's respective defense industries only stand to gain by further collaboration. He also stressed that Turkey's security-defense alliance with the majority of European Union nations as part of NATO made Turkey a "natural fit to existing and future European security and defense schemes."
The announcement coincides with the Defense Minister's trip to Riyadh which, among other things, is set to begin preliminary plans on the development of an indigenous Turkish fighter jet project with Saudi Arabian participation. The Air force has hinted that European inclusion into the project is desired, particularly naming EADS, Saab, and Dassault as prospective partners.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Turkish President Marks Passing of Mubarak


Turkey cultivated strong ties with the late Egyptian dictator, but was the first Muslim nation to urge him to step down.

Turkey President Abdullah Gul has acknowledged the death of former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, in a press conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The President is currently co-chairing a summit with the Gulf Cooperation Council, when Egyptian media announced the death of Hosni Mubarak of heart failure.

"The Turkish people and nation stand with the people of Egypt at this time of continued transition, and looks to the future when we can stand with a proud, united, and democratic Egypt."

The President acknowledged that Turkey had enjoyed strong relations with Egypt under Mubarak's regime, which was overthrown in a popular uprising-cum-military coup last February. President Gul described Mubarak as "a decent man", who was deeply committed to Middle Eastern peace, as well as instrumental to the peace process between Israel and Palestinians. President Gul stressed that Mr. Mubarak's contributions to the Israeli-Palestinian process and inter-PLA reconciliation should not be forgotten or dismissed. However, the President also acknowledged that the late Egyptian President had "many flaws", including a ruthless oppressive streak and "did not always formulate policy in the interests of the Egyptian people." The President stressed that he was the first Muslim leader to call for Mubarak to step down, and stood by Mubarak's decision as "correct, just, and necessary".

Hosni Mubarak's death comes days before he was scheduled to stand trial for crimes committed during his 30-year rule. Egyptians have taken to the streets in a seemingly spontaneous outpouring of frustration that Mubarak's crimes will go unpunished, according to protesters. The Turkish President lamented "the distinct feeling that justice will not be determined and served", but urged the Egyptian people to carry on in the spirit of their revolution. "Mubarak's passing presents an opportunity for Egypt to heal, and for Egypt's revolution to move beyond correcting the past into envisioning and creating the future. The time for vengeance has passed, and the time for hope has arrived."

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Erdogan Calls For 'Responsible Elections' in Iran

The Prime Minister released a statement this week urging authorities in Iran to respect the democratic process and allow 'free, fair, and open elections' as Iranians begin to rally in the capital. The Prime Minister acknowledged the resignation of President Ahmadinejad, wishing him 'a full recovery'. The controversial former Iranian President stepped down this week due to 'health-related concerns', prompting the Supreme Leader to call for early elections.

The Prime Minister said that he 'respected Iran's political discourse', but urged 'a more open approach to governance' and appealed to the Green Movement to 'respect the rule of law and idea of peaceful protest.' Earlier, President Gul made a personal appeal to Ayatollah Khomenei to "maintain responsible electoral processes" during a press conference with American President Ron Paul, who is on a state visit to Ankara.

The resignation of Ahmadinejad and electoral process has cast a looming shadow over the breakthrough deal brokered by the government which would see a break from the past in terms of Iran's nuclear program and the surrounding controversy. Turkish, Russian, and Iranian diplomats have just submitted to the UN Security Council a draft proposal which would iron out the final details of Iran's inspection of its nuclear facilities and alleged weapons program. The issue has been at the center of international diplomacy since 2008, as the US and its allies suspect Tehran of attempting to acquire the capability to produce a nuclear weapon. Turkish President Abdullah Gul submitted a proposal, negotiated bilaterally between Turkey and Iran, to the UN and gained wide acceptance.

The call for early elections, some fear, may cast doubt on the feasibility of the deal, negotiated under former President Ahmadinejad's government. Foreign Minister Davutoglu, however, expressed confidence that Iran would stay the course. "Iran and the international community have come so far, and have shown such statesmanship and courage that to go back on the deal negotiated between myself and Foreign Minister Salehi would be a grave mistake and a step backwards into uncertainty and apprehension. I am confident that the deal is not in jeopardy."

[Turkey (Dax)]

Foreign Ministry Releases 'New Policy' on the European Union

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs this week released a white paper regarding the AKP's policy towards the European Union for the coming year that has sent shock waves through the political establishment and society as a whole. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan called the draft policy outline "the greatest foreign policy achievement of the decade" and urged the National Assembly to adopt it in full.

The policy's most striking position is the open admission that Ankara will no longer pursue full membership in the European Union, effectively withdrawing the 1987 application that is considered a landmark foreign policy decision that changed the course of the Turkish Republic irreversibly. The draft gives numerous rationales for doing so, and comes imperceptibly shy of endorsing the "Privileged Partnership" concept articulated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a visit in 2011. The German proposal was lambasted at the time as an 'insult' by the AKP, and Premier Erdogan vowed to pursue EU membership "eternally", recalling images of a hopeless romantic who will lust after his beau 'til death. Such a dramatic reversal in two years is a shocking and unsettlingly radical departure from the AKP's rhetoric since taking office in 2002.

Erdogan doesn't think so, stating confidently that "the very fact that we are able to discuss and re-examine what the European Union can offer us by full membership is a testament to how far the Turkish Republic has come." The paper outlines several advantages to some variety of "alternative partnership" short of full membership. Some of the harshest critics of the AKP aren't surprised either. Staunch secularists have long asserted that the AKP's enthusiasm for EU membership was a front to remove the military from politics and to emphasize freedom of religion under the guise of conforming to EU norms as a means of repealing the Ataturkian secular ideals. Feeling as though they have achieved the objectives, and with public opinion for EU membership at historic lows, the government feels confident that the rouse is no longer necessary.

Any change to the European Union membership policy must go through the National Assembly, however, as the matter was enshrined as a national strategic development objective by previous governments as opposed to a simply foreign policy matter. Opposition parties in the NA have threatened to force a referendum on the matter, though it is unclear whether they have the votes to do so. Additionally, the Turkish Council of State, the country's highest court, has agreed to review the proposed policy.

Foreign Minister Davutoglu has released a statement lauding the new policy as "monumental" and "a step in the direction of Turkish independence, a testament to its development, and a new era for the Turkish Republic", in a press conference from a trade mission in Georgia. Georgia has proposed closer economic ties to Turkey in a bid to improve Tbilisi's image in the EU, making the timing of the release almost poetically ironic. Though it seems Erdogan's government is already preparing the rhetoric for an eventual referendum, just in case one is forced on the government.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Military Budget to Increase Amidst Reforms

Prime Minister Erdogan announced plans to increase the military budget of the Turkish Armed Forces this year, when a new budget is approved in April. The Prime Minister's proposal has appropriated about $35 billion towards the Defense Ministry, as opposed to last year's $23 billion. The increase, when accounting for growth in the budget, amounts to just over $10 billion, and an increase from 2.7% of GDP to 4%.

The government has begun formulating an ambitious plan to reform and restructure the military after a 2010 constitutional reform bill re-affirmed the government's complete control over the military and its budget. After decades of opaque military spending and intricate weaving of military figures into the economy, the AKP has moved, albeit carefully, to assert the military's subservience to government. The new military reform is the most ambitious move yet, aiming to reduce the overall force by about 20% by 2014, re-organize the structural makeup of the armed forces, as well as reforming conscription.

Conscription has been the first major overhaul proposed by Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz, with a stated goal to eliminate conscription entirely by 2017. Yılmaz proposal would, specifically, reduce the overall conscription mandates for all citizens, while eliminating the mandatory fine for Turkish citizens living abroad to become exempt. Under the draft law, Turkish citizens whom have lived abroad for more than three years are completely exempt from conscription unless more than 25% of their taxable income originated in Turkey. Diaspora conscription has been a major issue for the government since coming to power, with many overseas Turkish communities calling for an end to the practice.

Additionally, the government has ordered the Minister of Justice to defer the matter of conscientious objection to the Turkish Council of State, the highest court in the country. In 2008, the European Court of Justice ruled that the Turkish Penal code's outlawing of conscientious objections was against the European Convention on Human Rights. The government pledged to examine the law. Additionally, the Justice Ministry has expressed their intention to halt prosecutions against individuals charged under the law, pending a review from the Council of State.

Turkey Will Formally Request Admittance Into the BRICS Bloc

The Turkish government will formally request to join the group of major developing economies, an informal, international bloc known as the BRICS, according to the foreign ministry. The BRIC bloc was first promulgated by the CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2001 to describe the world's next major powers based on economic and political growth. The group originally consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The group admitted South Africa in 2010.

The Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, officially announced the intention to request admittance into the group at a major trade summit in Tbilisi, Georgia while describing the rapid expansion in the Turkish economy over the last two decades. Davutoglu emphasized where Turkey and the BRICS were similar, as well as what made Turkey unique and why Ankara would positively contribute to the group.

"The BRICS countries are the world's next great players. Turkey would consider itself in that category. They represent people, cultures, and economic models from all corners of the world. The admittance of Turkey - a country with a unique economic and political model from the rest of the group - would add a Muslim nation to their ranks and make the organization truly global." While the foreign ministry has yet to formally contact any member of the group officially on the subject, a spokesman stated that Ankara intended to before the end of the year.

Former President Kenan Evren Dies

Former President and only surviving leader of the 1980 coup d'etat, Kenan Evren, has passed away this morning, state officials have said. Evren was found by his wife at 7:30am local time in his bed, and is believed to have died of heart failure. He was 95 years old.

Kenan Evren was President of Turkey from 1980 to 1989, after seizing power in the bloodiest coup in the country's history that is considered a landmark event in the modern history of the Republic, and shaped the country for over two decades. Erven's presidency changed the social and political climate of the Republic, the effects of which are still felt today, ushering in an era of oppression of civil society the wounds of which are still being felt. He was also the last President of Turkey to have been born during the Ottoman Empire.

Investigations into torture during his tenure have been on-going, and Even himself was scheduled to be prosecuted for "crimes against the state". A district judge ruled last year that Erven was not fit to appear in court after prosecutors requested his arrest. The former President was in ill-health and had been living since 1995 under effective house arrest. His sudden death is sure to anger many victims of the oppression under his rule. President Abdullah Gul has released a statement which marked his passing, saying that he would receive a full state funeral. The President sympathized with the anger felt by many, though emphasized that his death marked "the death of an specter that has haunted Turkish society" and called for a time of national healing.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Turkey to Host Major NATO Summit

The NATO military alliance has voted for Turkey to host the location of the 2013 NATO Summit at a recent ambassador meeting at the alliance's headquarters in Belgium. Turkey initially competed against Indianapolis, London, and Turin. The UK and US withdrew and supported the Turkish bid, and the summit will be co-chaired by Prime Minister Erdogan and American President Ron Paul, as per an agreement made during President Paul's recent state visit to Ankara. The government has expressed a great honor to have been chosen, expressing their excitement to host the summit, the second time in the alliance's history.

"When The Republic hosted the summit for the first time in 2004 in Istanbul, it was marked by the admission of seven new members to the alliance and coincided with the day Iraq re-gained sovereignty from the United States. It has a reputation for representing change. I think that the upcoming summit will continue that trend."

Turkish defense and political officials will host the North Atlantic Council at Atatürk University, a mere kilometer from the Erzurum Air Force Base, long a major transit point and logistics base for NATO allies and operations. In addition, a conference of military commanders and Chiefs of Staff will take place at the Incirlik Air Base in Izmir, location of the USAF 39th Air Base Wing and headquarters of NATO's Southern Allied Air Component Command. Generals and commanders will have the opportunity to tour the facilities, observe training and exercises, discuss possible training initiatives, and for the first time view the operational capability of the early warning radar station, located in nearby Malatya. Lastly, the recently completed Istanbul Congress Center will also host a lower-profile, but still critical, NATO-Russia Council meeting, the first such meeting since 2010. Joining the Summit at the special invitation of the Turkish Government will be representatives from The Republic of Georgia, The European Union, Australia, and Japan.

the 2013 Erzurum Summit is building billed as one of the most critical Summits since the 2002 Prague Summit, when NATO officially agreed to a policy of transforming its objectives to address global threats and transition away from a Cold War, anti-Soviet alliance. In the preceding decade, the geopolitical situation and global landscape has changed considerably, conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have strained inter-alliance relations, and policy towards Russia has been exacerbated by divisions within the alliance and external factors. The theme of the summit has been called "NATO's Evolving Global Role". It will take place 14 May 2013.

Syrian Grand Opposition Council Conference Opens*

A Grand Opposition Council conference has kicked off in Istanbul this week, signalling a potential shift in the situation in Syria that continues to unfold. The conference brings together a multitude of organized and informal groups that comprise the Syrian opposition factions, including the Syrian National Council, for the purpose of mediating inter-opposition disputes and formulating a common policy and political objectives towards applying pressure on Syrian President al-Assad to step down.

The idea was formulated at last year's Arab League Summit in Cairo, in which Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu attended as a special guest of the new Tunisian President. The initiative aims to unify various opposition factions under one common goal, while providing mentorship, assistance, and advisers to the Council from all over the Muslim world in order to mold a more cohesive, representative group with clear goals and the resources necessary to govern in any post-Assad Syria.

It is seen as a step towards soliciting for eventual recognition of the Syrian opposition as the legitimate representatives of Syria by major international powers, though Turkish officials deny this. "This conference is about mediation, reconciliation, and national unity, especially of sectarian and other factions. A divided and disparate opposition cannot negotiate in serious terms with the Assad regime and remain credible and legitimate."

It is believed that Turkish authorities denied representation of Kurdish groups and Kurdistan regional factions to the conference, but no independent confirmation was available. The government denied the rumors, stating that no Kurdish-specific groups had requested attendance.

*This is a planned arc between Boxman and I that will develop in the coming days. If you planned to have a representative at the summit, please contact me or Boxman.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News from Around Turkey

Landmark Agreements Signed with Georgia

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has hailed a three-day economic and trade summit with the Republic of Georgia as "a resounding success", with a number of deals reached and agreements signed which would see an increased Turkish business presence in Georgia, as well as further government-level cooperation between Ankara and Tbilisi. Dr. Ahmet Davutoglu led a delegation of Turkish business leaders to Tbilisi in an effort to increase trade and business ties.

Agreements reached will see Turkish Airlines purchase a controlling share of Sky Georgia, The Georgian Republic's national airline service, as well as further involvement of TurkCell in Geocell mobile phone operators. Political agreements on aligning Turkish and Georgian trade and business laws were signed, as well as the establishment of a number of ministerial-level committees to increase Turkish and Georgian trade legislation. Davutoglu extended an invitation to Georgia to attend a summit of the Turkic Council next year and the 2013 NATO Summit in Erzurum.

Davutoglu reiterated Turkish support for Georgia in regards to the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and reaffirmed Ankara's commitment to the implementation of the peace agreement signed in 2008 between Russia and Georgia. Davutoglu called on Moscow and Tbilisi to reach a "comprehensive agreement that respected Georgia's territorial integrity as well as the people of Georgia's right to self-determination."

National Assembly Passes Military Reform Law

The Turkish National Assembly passed the Ministry of Defense's 2013 Military Reform law, a draft proposal submitted by the Defense Ministry of undertaking a number of ambitious reforms to the military, specifically with regards to equipment, training, and personnel. The proposal outlines a number of initiatives aimed at increasing the effectiveness, efficiency, and continuity of the Armed Forces while reducing the overall force structure by approximately 20%.

The proposal was adopted as-is, the main components of which involve the elimination of conscription and transitioning of the armed forces into an all-volunteer, professional force by 2018, as well as a $12 Billion increase in the defense budget. The law increases funding for training while also increasing the overall salary for the armed forces. In addition, it outlines multiple cuts for programs while investing heavily in domestic industry. Furthermore, it provides for an increase in oversight and auditing of the military budget by the National Assembly.

The Ministry of Defense, when asked about the 50% increase in the defense budget and whether the increase constituted an arms buildup, dismissed the notion. "The budget increase primarily accounts for increases in salary and training funding and an expansion of domestic industry. Turkey is not acquiring new weapons platforms and in fact is decreasing the overall size of the military. It in no way amounts to an arms build up or arms race." The question was fielded in response to foreign media reactions accusing Turkey of undertaking an arms race.

Council of State Rejects Controversial EU Policy

Turkey's highest administrative court has rejected the AKP government's new policy concerning the European Union, in a 4-3 ruling this week hailed by opposition parties and opponents of the law as "real democracy at work in Turkey." The ruling is a major blow to Prime Minister Erdogan's government and foreign policy.

Erdogan has made a rejuvenated, less Euro-centric foreign policy a centerpiece of his government's second term. His promulgation of a new policy for the European Union was hailed as the culmination of Turkey's development into a major regional power, and a testament to its growth and influence. The court's decision is a major setback at a time when tension between the AKP party and government opposition is high. The court's ruling will force the government to take the matter to a popular referendum which, if rejected, could deal what amounts to a death blow to the party's government platform.

Prime Minister Erdogan called the ruling "devastating" to the citizens to Turkey, who in the latest opinion polls on 30% of whom support Turkey's continued reach for European Union membership. He did not announce whether the government would seek a referendum, but announced a vote of confidence in the National Assembly before continuing to formulate the policy.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Prime Minister Will Not Change Course on Europe

The office of Prime Minister Erdogan released a statement expressing dismay yesterday in the wake of the 4-3 ruling by the Council of State rejecting the government's new European Union policy. The Council, Turkey's highest administrative court, declared that the country's European Union Accession Treaty could not be abandoned unilaterally by the foreign ministry without a vote in the National Assembly, setting the stage for what may be a nation-wide referendum on the country's future relations with the EU.

The Prime Minister asserted that he "would not change course on Europe", insisting that Turkey's future had already been decided. "Turkey's development will continue, Turkey will maintain her independence and economic trajectory, and Turkey will not sign the Lisbon Treaty." A crowd of supporters lauded the statement as public opinion polls show EU membership approval hovering around 42%, up from recent figures but down significantly from its 2004 high of 76%. Opposition parties in the National Assembly have threatened to force a referendum, though it is unclear if they have the votes to do so without a significant portion of the Prime Minister's own AKP party rebelling against the party line.

Separately, the Prime Minister also hosted the Croatian ambassador in Ankara in a congratulatory celebration on Croatia's recent accession to the EU, expressing hope that Zagreb will support Turkey's re-definition of it's relationship with the EU. No details on the talks were published.

Regional Energy Ministers Meet in Erzurum

Though widely overshadowed by the NATO Summit taking place in the city, Erzurum is also set to host the inaugural council of the Intergovernmental Gas Pipeline Committee, a regional forum of energy ministers from Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. The IGPC was formed during a recent visit to Tbilisi by a large Turkish trade and business delegation, where leaders agreed to coordinate pipeline and energy infrastructure initiatives. The Committee also plans to eventually incorporate Turkmenistan and Iran.

Unrest in Bahrain - Turkish Embassy Closed

The Turkish Embassy in Manama, Bahrain has been reduced to a bare-bones staff in light of recent unrest in which thousands of protesters took to Pearl Square demanding reforms and a pluralistic government this week. Reports have circulated that security forces of either Bahrain or the Gulf countries have been suppressing protesters, according to some reports violently. No statement from the royal family has been forthcoming, though local reports have alleged widespread detainment, while some describe security forces opening fire on unarmed civilians.

Bahrain is a majority-Shiite emirate in the Persian Gulf that is ruled by a minority, Saudi-sponsored, Sunni royal family. Some Iranian officials recently urged Bahraini citizens to revolt, prompting the Bahraini authorities to declare Iranian embassy staff persona non grata. Speculation exists that the protests are Iranian-sponsored and Iranian-organized, though Tehran denies this. The island also hosts a major US Navy installation, and the Turkish ambassador, Ahmet Ülker, has been dispatched to the naval base, seeking American protection until he can leave the country.

The Turkish embassy has ordered all non-essential personnel to report to the American naval base on the island before being evacuated. Ahmet Ülker and his core crew will be temporarily operating out of Turkey's embassy in Doha, Qatar until the embassy in Manama is re-opened. The Turkish embassy in Manama will continue to serve Turkish citizens in Bahrain and offer diplomatic protection and asylum to select protesters, though such services are subject to the developing security situation.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Bomb Blast Rock Syria Opposition Council

ISTANBUL -- Downtown Istanbul was rocked last night as a bomb blast of unknown origin detonated outside of the Dedeman Istanbul Conference Hall at the close of the Grand Syrian Opposition Council conference. The bomb exploded at approximately 1900 hours local time, according to police who responded to the blast, which detonated in the reception hall of the building.

The Opposition Council meeting was organized by the Turkish government as a means of bringing together various opposition groups of the Syrian opposition, including the Syrian National Council and various ethnic and religious leaders. At the time of this publishing, eleven members of the Syrian opposition were killed, while nine Turkish employees were confirmed killed and four injured. An additional three local Istanbul police were injured in attempts to evacuate the building, though no Turkish police casualties have been reported. The four injured employees remain hospitalized, with one in critical condition. All three police officers remain stable, suffering moderate injuries not expected to be life-threatening.

Istanbul's mayor, Kadir Topbaş, has appealed for calm in the city and local police have cordoned off the area. A spokesman for the Istanbul Metropolitan Police Department has confirmed that police were searching the area for other threats, though downplayed the chances of further attacks. "An investigation into the incident is on-going, though there is currently no evidence to suggest that there will be further coordinated attacks. This appears to be a concerted terrorist attack with clear political implications." The Ministry of Interior has advised citizens in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, and Erzurum to remain vigilant but calm. Foreign nationals in the tourist-heavy cities of Adana and Izmir were called on to go about their business as usual, stressing the high improbability of further attacks and stating that there was no need for panic or evacuation. Nonetheless, foreign embassies were advised to utilize caution when issuing visas and passports, stating that accomplices could attempt to leave the country.

Stern Warning

President Abdullah Gul addressed the nation shortly after the attack, reiterating appeals for calm and urging citizens to remain united against terrorism. Gul also issued a stern warning that the attack would be responded to 'swiftly and decisively'. The President pledged that, while the investigation was on-going, any evidence of foreign complicity would carry 'severe consequences', while not elaborating further.

The warning has been interpreted as a clear message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, though President Gul did not specifically mention any nation, group, or leader. Assad's security forces have been accused of undermining the Syrian Opposition's political future, and it is widely presumed that the attacker originated in Syria with most assuming that the attack had the full backing and support of the Syrian authorities, given the timing and nature of the attack. The fact that the bomb occurred at the time and place of the Syrian Opposition Council implicates Assad's involvement, though officials attempted to downplay speculations to that effect. Stressing that a full investigation was still under way, they reaffirmed that there was currently no evidence of foreign sponsorship.

Regardless, speculations have taken on a life of their own, as social media and various blogs have outright accused Assad of ordering the attack. There has also been suspicion of involvement from Iran's Bashij, Israel's Mossad, and the Kurdistan Worker's Party, though all supposition so far lies outside of official government statements.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Suspects of Istanbul Bomb Attack Revealed

The identity of the man authorities say is responsible for the bomb blast which shook Istanbul this week has been revealed, as on-going investigations into the attack continue. Istanbul police have identified the man as Anwar al-Amuda, pictured above, a 29 year old Syrian citizen with close links to and possible membership of the terrorist Kurdistan Worker's Party, or PKK. It is unclear how al-Amuda entered Turkey, though authorities say that it is 'impossible' that al-Amuda could have acted alone, adding that evidence has emerged that accomplices were involved and that extensive coordination with the PKK was 'indisputable'.

Sources confirm that the investigation has also revealed that the probable origin of the attack and base of operations used in its coordination is located in Syria, along the extensive Syrian-Turkish border. The eastern border region between Syria and Turkey is part of the so-called "Kurdistan" entity which the terrorist organization insists is its homeland, and the region has a history of spawning violence and terrorist activity.

Foreign Minister Davutoglu has boarded a plane to Ankara from Algiers, where he was on a diplomatic meeting with the Algerian President, upon the news of the attack, which sources also claim may have included the backing of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. Sources have confirmed that Assad or elements of his regime may have provided the suspect and his conspirators with safe haven, financial support, and logistical support to carry out the attack, likely as a means of weakening the Syrian opposition in Istanbul. Intelligence officials have warned that the perpatrators of the terrorist attack may be en route to Syria, and may attempt to cross the Syrian border from Turkey, if they have not already done so. The government has placed all border districts on high alert and instructed citizens who observe 'suspicious behavior' to notify the police or authorities immediately. It is not known whether al-Amuda is armed, though the likelihood remains quite high.

Gul Delivers Ultimatum for Extradition

President Abdullah Gul has delivered a message to Damascus via the Lebanese embassy in Syria that Ankara expects the full cooperation of the Syrian authorities in apprehending the suspected terrorist cells in Syria and an unhindered extradition to Turkey of suspected PKK militants. Ankara broke off relations with Assad's regime last year amid a continual crackdown of opposition protesters in the country, but a foreign ministry spokesman has confirmed that Turkey is willing to work with al-Assad's regime to bring terrorists to justice.

Doubts have been raised about the Syrian authorities' willingness or capability of cooperating fully with Ankara, noting that Assad's regime is unlikely to hand over the suspects if it was directly involved in supporting the attack. Others speculate that, given the lawless state of the country and the Syrian forces' preoccupation with its own internal uprising, the government and security forces have little capability to effectively police its border regions.

"If Syria is not capable of patrolling its own territory and preventing the spread of terrorist activity, then that clearly presents an imminent threat to the Turkish state and we will have to take steps to neutralize that threat accordingly," according to a spokesman for the National Security Council. Such 'steps to neutralize terrorist activity' are not unprecedented for the Turkish armed forces, which regularly staged cross-border air assaults and raids against Kurdish terrorist activity in Iraq amid the anarchic period of 2003-2010. "If Assad is supporting these activities and is unwilling to fulfill commitments to stop the spread of terrorism, then that presents an obvious problem that Turkey will have to address appropriately."

The stark warning by the National Security Council and President Gul leaves open the possibility of armed conflict or Turkish military action in neighboring Syria. Such an act would have consequences which would be 'grave' for the region, according to analysts. Authorities have maintained since the Syrian uprising began that Turkey has ruled out so-called 'humanitarian intervention' in Syria akin to western intervention in Libya in 2011, though recent comments and official statements seem to leave open the possibility of what some have dubbed a 'police action' to neutralize threats to the Republic originating from Syria.

Syrian support for the PKK terrorist organization is not unprecedented. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez routinely supported terrorist and separatist organizations in Turkey while President of Syria. Such support included providing shelter to Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Öcalan until 1999. Such support led to what has been dubbed "the undeclared war" between Ankara and Damascus, and open Syrian support for the PKK only abated when the Turkish government openly threatened military actions against Syria in response. Despite expelling Öcalan and a warming of relations between Ankara and Damascus, support for PKK activities still exists in Syria, though until now the level of official support was thought to be nil.

According to unnamed sources, the President has demanded that the Syrian authorities apprehend and extradite all elements of the PKK terrorist organization to Turkey within 48 hours. Failure or inability to do so, it is said, has been threatened to be interpreted as 'Syrian complicity' in terrorist activity, though no sources confirm what such an interpretation would entail nor what the Turkish response would be. Additionally, with UN and international personnel stationed along the Turko-Syrian border region as part of humanitarian operations, the spectre of conflict has raised fears of an international crisis. The President declined to comment on the rumors of impending military action, though the military has insisted that "Turkey must retain the right to defend itself against threats to its security," adding that "failure on the part of Damascus to control rogue and terrorist elements within its territory presents a clear and unacceptable threat to the security and stability of the Republic."

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

President Warns of Escalation if Arab Proposal Adopted

The office of President Gul released a statement yesterday warning that the Saudi-sponsored resolution in the Arab League on Syria would "escalate and exasperate an already volatile situation" in the country and "further add pressure on an already explosive conflict". The President's office confirmed that the Turkish Republic would oppose any plan to insert foreign monitors or observers in the war-torn country on the grounds that such an interference would jeopardize Turkish border operations and efforts to secure the border and contain the violence. The President also cast doubt on the Syrian regime's willingness to submit to the Arab League's plan.

Naci Korkmaz, a spokesman for the President's office, confirmed the President's objections. The statement highlighted the Syrian regime's likely opposition to the Arab League's proposed plan to insert Arab League monitors into the country under a UN mandate. "With sectarian tensions in the country at all-time highs, the regime is already casting stones at Sunni nations, specifically blaming Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others for what it calls 'sponsoring terrorism' in the country." The likelihood that Damascus would welcome monitors from these very agents is slim, according to analysts attached to the President's office. Furthermore, says Korkmaz, Turkish operations in securing the border regions would be complicated by the presence of foreign observers, potentially causing an international incident. "At present, Turkey is conducting operations with very little indication of how the regime is likely to react -- or their capacity to react whatsoever. The presence of foreign observers would complicate the matter further, and there's no way that their safety could be guaranteed."

The President has confirmed that a Turkish envoy has been sent to the Arab League's headquarters in Cairo in order to discuss the matter with the bloc, though hopes of consensus remain muted.

AKP's European Union Policy Faces Stiff National Assembly Vote

Prime Minister Recep Erdogan's controversial new policy on Turkish-EU relations has been scheduled for debate in the National Assembly this week, where it faces stiff competition from liberal parties, secularists, and even members of the premier's own party.

Premier Erdogan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu set out the new policy in a speech at Ankara University last year, which has drawn both praise and sharp criticism in recent months. The new policy, which supporters within the government hail as "a testament to Turkey's growing political importance, democratic development, and national character" removed the three decade national policy of seeking official, full membership within the 28-member bloc. The policy recognized that Turkey faced "seemingly insurmountable challenges and opposition" to its EU membership that would not be satiated merely by meeting all of the Copenhagen Criteria. Anti-Muslim and anti-Turkish sentiment has been steadily on the rise in Europe since the early part of the millennium, and some influential EU members have outright ruled out full Turkish membership, including France, Austria, and the ruling government in Germany. The new policy envisioned a complete re-tooling of EU-Turkish relations in favor of the "Special Partnership" concept espoused by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2010.

The new policy has faced incredibly mixed reactions from several sectors of society, with strong support among the religious communities, business community, ad financial sectors, while also receiving widespread support in Anatolian university landscapes. By contrast, social liberals, secularists, minority communities, and the Istanbul and Aegean intelligentsia have all condemned the new policy as "backwards thinking". The policy was eventually struck down by the Council of State, Turkey's highest court. The court determined 4-3 that because Turkey's EU membership was enshrined in 1999 as a "national strategic development objective", the ruling government could not unilaterally discard the membership policy and such a reversal would have to face a vote in the National Assembly.

The government's Justice and Development Party controls 327 seats in the Grand National Assembly, or 59.5%, more than enough to pass an affirmation of the policy on its own. However, AKP party officials appear split on the matter of EU membership, with rumors that even prominent government officials such as the Minister of Development and Minister of Justice opposing the initiative. The prime minister would need 276 MPs to vote in favor, either entirely from his party or otherwise from other parliamentary participants. Of course, the main opposition Republican People's Party's 135 MPs oppose the policy virtually in its entirety, as do the 35 Independents (mostly pro-Kurdish politicians). Should Erdogan face a party rebellion over this, his most ambitious foreign policy initiative in his decade-long rule, a mere 53 of his own MP's would have to cast the NAY votes. In such a scenario, the critical swing vote would be the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), whose 53 votes in the National Assembly would be more than decisive.

While many members of the nationalist MHP have opposed Turkish full membership to the EU in the past, many favor it under certain scenarios. More critically, the MHP has come into intense conflict with the AKP in the past, particularly in 2011 during the drafting of the new constitution. The party is also deeply suspicious of Erdogan and his core ruling class, and suspects the party of attempting to undermine Turkish nationalism in favor of either 'Islamification' or 'Euroversion'. The MHP, recognizing Erdogan's weakness, may attempt to use their leverage to force certain guarantees on Erdogan, including the maintenance of the "Turkishness" constitutional clause, guarantees about the devolution to local governments, and recognition of minority organizations' local authority. While continuing with EU membership would put intense pressure on the government to address these things, withdrawing from the membership negotiations would allow Erdogan a better hand in opposing these policies to more liberal sectors of society and government. Should a deal not be reached however, the MHP may use its leverage to force the policy to be struck, put to referendum, and even the fall of the government.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Turkey to Purchase Italian carrier


The Giuseppe Garibaldi is the Italian Navy's flagship.

The Turkish Navy has confirmed long-standing rumors that it had concluded negotiations with the Italian Republic for the purchase of the Italian Navy's first aircraft carrier, the Giuseppe Garibaldi. Italy, which planned to relegate the ship to support roles upon the introduction of a replacement later in the decade, has agreed to hand over the flagship of the Italian Navy to Turkey free of charge, with Turkey covering all costs of upgrading and extending the ship's lifespan, as well as other costs associated with the transfer.

The Giuseppe Garibaldi was commissioned with the Italian Navy in 1984 and called a Helicopter Carrying Anti-Submarine Cruiser due to constitutional restrictions on Italy's operation of an aircraft carrier. It was properly redesignated in 1987, when such restrictions were lifted. It is named after the Sardinian general who is credited with uniting the various Italian city-states under one crown in the mid-1800s. The ship has served as the flagship of the Italian Navy for the past 30 years. The Navy recently commissioned their second carrier, the larger and more advanced Cavour, with a second on the way.

Turkish navy and defense officials lauded the deal, which is unprecedented for Turkey. Turkey will officially be the very first Muslim country in history to operate an aircraft carrier. The Turkish Navy will receive the vessel by early 2017. Additionally, Turkey will be acquiring as part of the deal the Italian Navy's fleet of AV-8 Harrier fighter jets for operation on the ship until replacements can be ordered. Once transferred to the Turkish Navy, it will be commissioned as part of the Fleet Surface Command at Gölcük Naval Base outside of Istanbul. She will be appropriately renamed the TNS Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

As part of the acquisition, the Navy will undergo extensive re-configuring to both accommodate the expansion in the Turkish Navy's capabilities as well as supplement her fleet with escorts. Turkey is currently in the process of acquiring logistics and support ships, as well as studying feasibility of acquiring domestically-made escorts such as frigates. Already, the Navy has placed an order with Germany for the purchase of the state-of-the-art Berlin-class Fleet Replenishment Ship, as well as additional Type-214 submarines for the carrier's use.

A more substantial part of the Navy's reorganization deal, while separate from the carrier's purchase, was the purchase from the German government of 7.5% of shares in the European aviation firm, NHIndstries. Formed by France and Germany as an extension of the Eurocopter project, NHIndustries produces the prolific naval helicopter NH90, which is standard use on virtually all European NATO navies. With the purchase of Berlin's shares by TAI, Turkey will be able to acquire the technology of NHI, as well as produce, market, and sell the helicopter without external restrictions. Finally, Turkish companies will be integrally involved in the evolution of the company, including a proposed Search and Rescue variant. The purchase and contract extends Turkish participation in European Defense to a degree unprecedented, which aligns with Turkey's stated desire for further integration and cooperation with the European Defense industry.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News From Around Turkey

Erdogan's EU Policy Passes National Assembly Vote

In what premier Erdogan called "an effective vote of confidence" in the ruling Justice and Development Party, the Grand National Assembly voted majority in favor of the AKP's reversal of the long-standing European Union membership policy, circumventing a ruling by the Council of State late last year. The vote is considered a huge victory for the AKP and the premier as election season kicks off in the country.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan promulgated the new official policy on the European Union in early 2013, which was the topic of fierce national debate over the preceding 16 months. The government's new policy will be to officially declare their withdrawal as a candidate country to the European Union in favor of an alternative association agreement such as suggested by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2011. The government has also authorized Egemen Bağış, Turkey's EU Minister and chief negotiator with Brussels, to renegotiate several aspects of EU-Turkish relations, including the EU-Turkey Customs Union.

Vote Results Bold indicates affirmative votes
Justice and Development Party: 299/27
Republican People's Party: 11/124
Nationalist Movement Party: 50/2
Peace and Democracy Party: 0/29
Independents: 1/6
Total: 361/550 65.6%

Election Season Kicks Off

The vote in the National Assembly in favor of Erdogan's EU policy was appropriately framed by the Prime Minister as an effective vote of confidence in both himself and the government. The premier's slyness is hinging the party's future on the matter effectively forced dissenters in his own party into his camp while seeming to walk away from the vote with a massively renewed mandate to govern. A state poll showed that 69% of the population approved of the new policy, strikingly close to the percentage of affirmative votes, and only 26% still favored full European Union membership negotiations.

The vote, taking place as it did at the start of the Turkish election season, has allowed the AKP to hit the ground running. Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has announced that he would not seek a fourth government, and would be running for the office of President, as President Abdullah Gul has served two terms and must step down. Current Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Ahmet Davutoglu has been promoted to the party's leadership, setting the stage for a Davutoglu government should the AKP come out on top in next year's National Assembly elections.

The opposition, led by the Republican People's Party and their fiery leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has condemned the vote as "the death of Ataturk and the Republic" and has launched an unprecedented anti-government campaign intent to mobilize their more westernized base to vote against the AKP next year. There have been rumors that Kılıçdaroğlu has even appealed to the army to step in, drawing sharp criticism from the AKP: "The man who vigorously defends Turkey continuing on the roadmap to the EU, even against the will of the people, has called for a coup d'etat", declared one MP. The prime minister refused to comment on the allegations, which Kılıçdaroğlu has categorically denied.

Turkey Elected to the UNSC

Turkey has been elected for a two-year term as a rotating member of the United Nations Security Council, the world's leading body for security matters. Turkey defeated Austria in the third round of voting, and was elected to the Council on behalf of Western Europe, along with Italy.

The Turkish foreign ministry welcomed the move, expressing gratitude that the General Assembly elected the Turkish Republic. Spokeswoman for the foreign ministry Tülin Özgür stated that the government was excited to begin working with the UNSC, along with fellow new members Brazil, India, Italy, and South Africa to address "the multitude of world conflicts", not least of which Syria. Also, Ms. Özgür expressed the government's desire to work "specifically with fellow BRICS members on urgently-needed Security Council reform."

[Turkey (Dax)]

President Gul Denounces Arab League's Syria Plan


Turkish Anka drones have been making regular fly-overs of the Syrian border in recent weeks.

President Abdullah Gul has resoundingly condemned the latest Arab League action plan to address the Syrian civil war, calling the resolution "a grave threat to the UN, the region, and to Syria." The Arab League's plan, which was adopted by the United Nations Security Council last week, calls for a 1000-strong military mission of unarmed UN-member personnel to observe a ceasefire in the war-torn country.

The President has called the UNSC resolution, introduced by the Saudi ambassador, "perilously flawed," expressing deep regret at the lack of consideration for Turkey's position, operations, and geopolitical fallout absorbed by Turkey from Syria. A spokesman for the President's office explained that the resolution seeks to insert unarmed military personnel into a civil war-torn country in order to enforce a ceasefire that doesn't currently exist. While the resolution calls for the withdrawal of heavy military equipment from population centers, a nearly identical resolution and observation mission was passed in 2012 and blatantly violated by the Assad regime, which continued to fire on oppositionists in urban cities even as the observer team was in Syria.

The President's office also said the security of the mission and it's civilian team could not possibly be assured, as the resolution calls for unarmed military personnel. Furthermore, President Gul asserted, even armed UN personnel could not secure the safety of the mission. Naturally, Syria would refuse any armament in the UN team that would be adequate to protect itself, and nonetheless the Russians and Chinese threatened a veto at the mere mention of such measures during negotiations for the previous resolution. Lastly, the President condemned the lack of coordination with the Turkish government when considering the course of action to take in Syria, especially in light of the on-going Turkish border operations and the opposition's base of operations being in Turkey.

All in all, President Gul asserted that the Saudi resolution was an improvement on the 2012 resolution to some degree, while incredulously inappropriate for the situation, which has evolved from the brutal government crackdown of 2012 to a full-scale civil war. Additionally, the President's office confirmed that repeated Turkish objections in the UN and directly to the Arab League were ignored by the bloc and the Saudi government. President Gul expressed his "profound disappointment in the uncharacteristically forceful sidelining of Ankara during the course of deliberations." The spokesman refused to comment about the affect of the situation on broader Arab-Turkish relations.

[Turkey (Dax)]

Justice and Development Celebrates Fourth Electoral Victory

The governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan have cause to celebrate, as the party sweeps through the Turkish general elections with a fourth major electoral victory. The party captured a commanding 51% of the vote in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, a slight decline from 2010's near 60%, though a sufficient majority to command parliament without the support of a coalition. The electoral win marks the AK Parti's fourth consecutive win in the Turkish parliament and by next elections in 2020 will have governed Turkey uninterrupted since 2002.

Concurrently, Turkey's emblematic Prime Minister, AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, defeated rival Republican People's Party candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to capture the Presidency. Mr. Erdogan assumes the role as the AKP's former chairman Abdullah Gul steps down after serving two terms.

The AKP's supporters gathered in Ankara yesterday afternoon as the elections results were announced, waving Turkish flags, chanting patriotic slogans, and some even holding aloft portrait likenesses of Prime Minister Erdogan, the party's charismatic leader. A rival rally for the opposition Republican People's Party was held in Istanbul simultaneously, with Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu proclaiming "the death of Ataturk" to a crowd at Istanbul University, where the party had proclaimed its temporary campaign headquarters.

At the end of vote counting, the Justice and Development Party managed to capture 281 seats, a decline of 45 seats from 2010's result. With 550 seats in the National Assembly, the total remains just enough to command the legislature without the aid of smaller parties or opposition acquiescence, though leaves the party vulnerable to internal splits, such as seen during the vote on the country's EU application withdrawal. Outgoing President Gul praised the outcome of the elections as "a victory for Turkey", calling the vote a referendum on the country's development.

In a sign of shifting attitudes in the Turkish public, however, the opposition Republican People's Party, which was expected to perform superbly in the elections, gained a mere five seats to 140, up from 135. The party's firebrand rhetoric and secular, western vision was expected to see a surge of support on the heels of the EU application withdrawal and the conflict with Syria, promising a return to the "peaceful development of the 1990s". The poorer-than-expected performance came as a surprise to many analysts, whom attribute the result to the party's rejection of populism and political Islam, which has grown in popularity in the preceding decade.

The real winners of the election, however, appear to be the two lesser parties -- the socialist Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and far-right National Movement (MHP) -- both of whom made significant strides in the National Assembly. The BDP nearly doubled their seats to 50, up from 29, while the MHP jumped from 52 seats to 74, indicating a disenchantment with the dominant political parties and the polarization of the urban elite (where both parties performed the best.) Independents remained approximately the same with 5 seats, while two remain contested and will be decided in the coming weeks.

Abdullah Gul and Recep Erdogan attended a swearing in ceremony for the new parliament, standing side-by-side as the eponymous faces of the AKP and what the party has called, "the fathers of 21st Century Turkey". The two men have been the driving force behind the AK party's politics and in crafting the country's trajectory, and the stepping down of Gul from the Presidency represents, in many ways, the passing of the torch to the new generation of Islamist leaders.

Former premier Erdogan, of course, will remain in the Presidency, while Abdullah Gul will step aside from internal politics. President Gul was nominated for the post of Secretary-General of NATO last year, though was defeated in the voting process by his Norwegian challenger. When asked about his future, President Gul sidestepped the issue, saying that he intended to remain involved in shaping Turkey's global role and image, though would not again be active in domestic politics. He is to remain as the AKP's official leader, though the functional role will belong to the new Prime Minister. There has been speculation that President Gul will be appointed senior ambassador to NATO or the EU, or nominated as Secretary General of the OSCE or Organization of Islamic Cooperation, though no official word has been released.

Opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu conceded defeat at 11:15am local time, expressing "profound regret" at the elections results. Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu asserted that Mr. Erdogan and the AKP had "hijacked the Ataturkian Republic" and "bastardized its secularist, progressive ideals in the name of liberty". Several nationalist commentators and analysts sympathetic to the CHM pointed out that the government had effectively made the campaign about everything except the government's performance, highlighting the government's failure to confront the conflict in Syria and the dipping economic performance: "This election was billed as a referendum on Europe, on Islam, on Syria... it was a referendum on everything except the government and except for Mr. Erdogan." Supporters said that they lamented the role of political Islam and the turn away from EU membership, while a CHP campaign spokesperson said that the party would be "re-evaluating its campaign and message" in light of the party's weak electoral performance.

Leading the new government on the heels of the AKP's electoral victory will be Dr. Ahmet Davutoğlu , Minister of Foreign Affairs under premier Erdogan. Dr. Davutoğlu is one of the country's most well-known and well-respected diplomats and statesman, having crafted the country's foreign policy since 2009 under Erdogan and the chief architect of the now-infamous "Zero Problems with Neighbors" policy. Dr. Davutoğlu is most accredited with overseeing Turkey's strategic shift from Europe and the west back towards the Muslim world, and has largely been praised for his efforts to promote integration of political Islam with western values of democracy and tolerance (values which he refers to as "universal values".) Critics accuse him of following a neo-Ottomanist foreign policy, though Dr. Davutoğlu denies this, referring instead to Turkey's foreign policy under his term as Pax Ottomana. Foreign Policy magazine named him one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers of 2012.

Dr. Davutoğlu is expected to announce his cabinet in the coming weeks.
[[UPDATE: Cabinet can be found here.]]

[Turkey (Dax)]

News from around Turkey

Apakan Urges Calm in S.E. Asia


Mr. Apakan urged responsible, measured action in the world's busiest sea lanes.

Foreign minister Ertuğrul Apakan urged calm in the South China Sea yesterday during a press conference at the UN, where the General Assembly was debating a Bruneian-sponsored resolution seeking decisive action on the Southeast Asian conflict that has destabilized the entire region and caused global commodity prices to spike harshly. Mr. Apakan reiterated Turkey's strong support for the sovereignty of all nations in the Southeast Asian region and the right of nations to protect their legitimate interests, but warned that heavy-handed military action has grave consequences far beyond the region, where over a third of global trade flows.

The conflict stems from the long-running dispute over competing claims to the Spratly Islands, an archipelago of islets and reefs that dot the expanse of ocean between Indonesia and the Asian landmass at China's southern border. Six nations claim sovereignty over some or all of the archipelago and the surrounding waters, which has recently been assessed to potentially rest on significant hydrocarbon reserves. Energy-hungry nations in the region such as China, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam all claim sovereignty over competing portions, causing heightened tensions which occasionally lead to small skirmishes. After a serious of small incidents, the Chinese navy dispatched a large task force to assert control over it's claims - which consist of the entirety of the island archipelago.

The small military exercise has caused panic in the region, threatening to engulf the world's busiest trade route and shipping lane in conflict which could severely destabilize the global economy. Mr. Apakan stressed this point, and urged "responsible, measured actions" and negotiated diplomacy. The Turkish foreign minister backed a summit proposed by Indonesia to formulate a framework for conflict resolution and to sort out the dispute through diplomatic means. So far, no nation has accepted Jakarta's invitation.

Turkish Economy to Pass Trillion Dollar Mark in 2016, Says Economy Minister


Early estimates put the economy's growth at 7% for 2015.

The Turkish economy will join the growing list of nations to have economies of a size over $1 trillion next year, according to the Economy Ministry, putting the country among an elite group of nations categorized as developed economies. Economy Minister Dr. Erdem Başçı said that the Turkish economy needed to grow merely 3.2% this year in order to cross the trillion-dollar threshold, an easy feat for a country averaging 8% growth in the past decade.

Turkey's gross domestic product, expressed in nominal terms (directly against other countries, without accounting for currency variables), sits just below the threshold at $970 billion. With early estimates forecasting economic growth to be approximately 7% in 2015, Turkey will easily make it over the mark. In 2011, Turkey's economy surpassed that of the Netherlands to become the 16th largest economy, and will move up one slot to the 15th by next year. Turkey will join the US, China, Japan, Germany, France, Russia, India, Brazil, Britain, Italy, Canada, Australia, Korea, and Spain; it will also join fellow developing economies Indonesia and Mexico (the so-called "MIT" bloc) in the Trillion Dollar Club.

The Turkish economy will be the largest of its neighbors except Russia, totaling 50% larger than Saudi Arabia's, nearly twice that of Iran, and quadruple that of Greece. Furthermore, Turkey will command an economy twice the size of South Africa, the latest member of the BRICS grouping, which President Erdogan campaigned to be included into while Prime Minister. "This milestone only reaffirms our steadfast insistence that Turkey should be included in some capacity into the BRICS economic grouping. Turkey is by far the Muslim world's largest economy and a key player in Eurasian economic affairs. With the inclusion of Turkey, the BRICS will have gone truly global." Foreign Minister Akapan has stated that he will make Turkish negotiations with the BRICS a key foreign policy goal, in coordination with the Finance and Economy ministries.

[Turkey (Dax)]

As Assad Gasses Civilians, Turkey to Close Border

Disturbing reports have emerged from within Syria that the Assad regime has used weapons of mass destruction in order to quell resistance in the internal civil war, as hostilities break out in Aleppo and resume the conflict in Syria that sat dormant for nearly two years. Opposition fighters from the Free Syrian Army militia group continued the battles in a surprise offensive over the weekend targeted at Aleppo, the country's largest city and major economic center.

As fighting reached the city's boundaries, however, reports began to emerge of the presence of a chemical weapon, most likely mustard gas and/or the nerve agent Tabun, both of which are highly toxic. Syria's possession and production of chemical and biological weapons is well-known, despite their possession being against international law and their usage counted as a war crime by the International Criminal Court. The use of such weapons of mass destruction against unarmed civilians and noncombatants constitutes a grave escalation to the regime's tactics, and cements Bashar al-Assad and his cronies as war criminals, guilty of crimes against humanity and other internationally-recognized charges.

The Turkish foreign ministry has announced that it immediately will be working to completely seal the border with Syria, in order to prevent contagion and defend against Assad's threats to export terrorism to Turkey. Prime Minister Davutoglu's office released a statement expressing profound grief and great concern over the new developments, confirming that Turkey stood ready to aid in any way it could in order to quell the violence and facilitate the change of what he described has become "an unapologetically murderous regime."

In terms of diplomatic developments, the use of chemical weapons by Assad's government has been blamed on NATO and Turkey by the Russian foreign ministry, which accused "the west" of causing the atrocity by supporting the Syrian peoples' right to self-determination and free expression, an accusation which Turkish President Erdogan flatly rejected. "The logic behind these statements is incredulous. That the Russian state would make the accusation that Turkey's support for the freedom of the Syrian people would give the Assad regime the right to use weapons of mass destruction against innocent, unarmed civilians shows how disconnected from reality Vladimir Putin has become." Turkey has recalled its ambassador to Moscow and cancelled a scheduled visit by the Russian Defense Minister to Istanbul to discuss potential Russo-Turkish cooperation in the realm of naval development.

[Turkey (Dax)]

News from around Turkey

Syrian Opposition Meet in Istanbul as Rebels Declare Syria 'Virtually Liberated'


Mohammad al-Qarth, firebrand foreign minister of the SNC, is among the leading Syrian opposition figures.

The largest conference of Syrian opposition figures since 2013 has begun in Istanbul this week*, amid reports from the Free Syrian Army that the country is "virtually liberated" from all elements of Assad's loyalist forces. The conference aims to bring together some of the most critical international actors and leading representatives of the various factions of Syria's opposition movement. The objective is to form a transitional governing committee to take control of the country in the aftermath of Syria's five-year civil war that overturned the entirety of the Levantine Arab world.

The Fifth Friends of Syria Conference, as it is being billed, was hosted by former President-cum-statesman Abdullah Gül and the commander of the Free Syrian Army. Represented at the conference were a myriad Syrian opposition figures, including representatives from the Syrian National Council, the Coalition for Secular and Democratic Syrians, the Movement for Justice and Development, and the Muslim Brotherhood. Also present were the Syrian National Council's rivals, the National Coordination Committee. It was attended by international diplomats from the Arab League, European Union, United Nations, Iran, and the United States. The conference's participants face the daunting challenge of forming a governing coalition that will oversee the drafting and implementation of democratic institutions in the wake of the fall of Bashar al-Assad's Ba'athist regime.

Questions have arisen over the legitimacy of the Syrian National Council, which claims effective authority in governance from their temporary capital, Aleppo. The SNC comprises, in the majority, of Syrian exiles that have directed political support for the revolution from abroad. In some cases, members have not lived in Syria for decades. The SNC purports to have a professional and effective military organization, though the military arm of the SNC is not connected to, nor coordinated with, the Free Syrian Army and indigenous rebel militias and fighters that did the vast majority of the fighting in Syria against Assad's forces. Some opposition groups and leading figures have criticized the SNC for assuming control of Aleppo and claiming government authority without building a consensus among various groups, nor drafting a constitution. Pressure has been mounting on the opposition's political wings to coalesce around a Constitutional Committee to prevent the country from becoming lawless and anarchic in the wake of the revolution.

Syrian military commanders on the ground have declared the country "virtually liberated" from Ba'athist rule. Rebel militias control the vast majority of the country, including major cities in Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, and Damascus. The last resistance is said to be holding out in Homs, the birthplace of the revolution, though it is expected that the city should fall in a matter of days. The bulk of the fighting is being done by the Free Syrian Army, supported by elements of the Turkish Air Force and Special Forces. Turkish F-35s openly bombed Aleppo in the wake of the use of chemical weapons on civilians by Assad's forces, and Turkish artillery and gunships have bombarded Assad's military fortifications in Latakia, Damascus, and Homs. The Turkish Navy maintains a complete naval blockade on the country's Mediterranean coast, which includes the major ports of Latakia and Tartus. The Navy has released statements saying that an end of the blockade would be forthcoming, while the list of items being permitted into the country will grow and restrictions on travel will be eased "in accordance with the situation in Syria's development."

High Technology. Turkey's Air Force debuted their new stocks of Lockheed-Martin MC-130J "Dragon Spear", specially-modified cargo aircraft designed as massive gunships and specializing in psychological warfare, which were sold to Turkey by the US in 2015. The jets have been providing bombing and gunship support to rebel militias as well as disabling Assad's military tracking and air defense capabilities. Commander of the Air Force General Mehmet Erten stated that the aircraft performed "exquisitely."

Government Denies Karzai Asylum Rumors; Calls for Int'l Afghanistan Summit


The US-backed President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, addresses an international conference for Afghanistan in Bonn, Germany in 2012, the last time the international community convened to discuss the country's stability and development.

The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has officially denied rumors that disposed Afghan President Hamid Karzai has sought asylum in Turkey, contradicting recent media speculation that the leader was being hosted in the country. Leading international and Turkish newspapers reported that President Karzai had fled the country, most likely to Pakistan or US bases in Uzbekistan. However, a release by the Associated Press News Agency revised the comments, reporting that an anonymous source has confirmed that Mr. Karzai had been refused entry into Pakistan, crossed Iran instead, and was reportedly en route to Turkey. Iranian state-owned Fars News Agency reported that Karzai had requested passage through the Islamic Republic, a statement confirmed by the Iranian foreign ministry. Tehran, however, has not confirmed whether Karzai was permitted to pass through Iran. Media speculation was rife that, should Tehran allow Hamid Karzai safe passage, the most likely destination was Turkey.

Foreign Minister Apakan denied rumors that Hamid Karzai was in the country, offering that the Turkish government had not been in contact with his government directly, or through non-embassy channels. President Karzai was disposed in a coup late last year, the culmination of the country's ongoing, low-level civil war.** There has been no confirmed sighting of him since, according to reports from the regime that has ruled Afghanistan since his ousting.

As of his disappearance, elections in Afghanistan have culminated in a reported victory for Abdullah Abdullah, the veteran leader of the Soviet-backed Northern Alliance (renamed National Front for Afghanistan during the war, then Coalition for Change and Hope for the April elections.) While Abdullah has assumed de facto control of the country, no nation has as-yet recognized the ruling party, and the elections were not internationally monitored for democratic credentials. Meanwhile, forces from rival factions and the Taliban continue to tear the country apart. Hamid Karzai's government-in-exile is still the recognized, legitimate government of Afghanistan, though the ruling regime has charged him in absentia with numerous charges against the citizens.

The Foreign Minister reiterated his support for democracy in Afghanistan, and urged the international community to continue to support the country. Mr. Apakan has called for international dialogue and consolidation of international efforts in Afghanistan in order to shore up the gains made during a decade of war and occupation. Critics have lambasted President Ron Paul and the post-Obama administration in the United States for "abandoning Afghanistan" after US and ISAF forces withdrew in 2014. Once withdrawn, the country quickly was engulfed in a multiple-sided insurgency, causing regional instability and a massive civilian death count. The lack of interest in Afghanistan from Washington has surprised and disappointed most analysts - to say nothing of Afghan refugees, exiles, and advocates abroad - which say that they did not expect withdrawal to be accompanied by "a complete lack of interest in the country and the well-being of the people."

Fugitive Leader. Prime Minister Davutoglu and then-President Abdullah Gül with former Pakistani President Zardari and Hamid Karzai in a meeting in Istanbul in 2012. Davutoglu's government has insisted that very meeting was the last time the Turkish government had official contact with President Karzai.

*This conference did not take place on the board and is strictly for RP purposes. Historian, as the Syrian player, will naturally have the right to decide how the conference turns out. Assume the delegations mentioned were present in some capacity, though if it's a problem, please PM me and I'll gladly edit the post. Also, the perspective of this article is highly subject to propaganda lenses.
**Some of the information in this article, even if presented as fact, may be incorrect.