Het Laatste Nieuws, News from Flanders/Belgium

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Het Laatste Nieuws is a Dutch-language daily newspaper that is the most popular publication in Flanders, dating back as far as 1888, and was Belgium's most popular daily before its partition. It was founded by Jules Hoste, Sr., is currently owned by Christian Van Thilo, and has a traditionally liberal and pro-Flemish editorial line, although it remained neutral in Flanders' independence referendum in 2015.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2012

Budget Finalised for 2012

After extensive review, and one month after its passing by Parliament, the federal government's budget has been finalised for this coming year. Cuts shall amount to €2.35bn, while an extra €750mn shall be raised in tax revenue, which shall take the form of a 'mansion tax' on expensive properties, and the creation of a new 65% income tax bracket on the wealthy. Cuts will be across the board, but will centre on transport and some education programmes. "Our target, of the deficit being reduced to 2.8% of GDP, is going to be hit," said Prime Minister di Rupo, "with as little pain for ordinary Belgians as possible." The CD&V leader Wouter Beke also praised the plan as "fair" and hoped that it would be the start of "the route to surplus". However, debt will pass 100% of GDP this year, adding to concerns of credit rating agencies and of the EU.

However, the opposition has been loud in its disapproval. Bart de Wever, leader of the Flemish separatist N-VA and of the opposition in general, denounced it as a "socialist budget intent on squeezing the wealth out of Flanders and into Wallonia, all the while bankrupting the whole Kingdom." Vlaams Belang released a press statement echoing de Wever's words, also adding that "only when immigration is cut to a level Flanders can take will there be prosperity." With support for Flemish independence now at 31% with 60% opposed, the di Rupo government has a near-impossible task of placating both the Flemings and its Walloon socialist support base. Nonetheless, with a government united against the Flemish separatist opposition, and a populace weary of elections and long, drawn-out negotiations, it seems highly unlikely that the government will collapse any time soon.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q3 2012

Recession Shall Endure Into 2013

The government has come in for harsh criticism as indications suggested that Belgium would post its fourth consecutive negative growth figure for Q3, with the annual projection that the Belgian economy shall have contracted by 0.7%. Bart de Wever bemoaned "the absolute failure of a redistributionist and socialist government to deal with a crisis caused by consecutive federal governments," and announced that the N-VA was planning to release a manifesto outlining its plan for the Belgian state and economy to "counter the destructive path of the government by presenting the Flemish people with a clear and credible alternative". Greater decentralisation is expected to make the de Wever manifesto, alongside economic liberalisations, tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, and limits on non-EU immigration.

Elio di Rupo has hit back, however, claiming that "the end result of any de Wever plan will be misery for the poor and the abolition of Belgium. This country will pull through together, and we'll resist the right-wing attempts to divide us by class or community in that effort." OpenVLD leader De Croo claimed that "what we need is unity, not this posturing," and insisted that the N-VA and Vlaams Belang do not properly represent the people of Flanders. Government spokesmen said that the figures were "unfortunate," but that growth shall return in the early part of 2013 across the country, provided European markets remain steady. However, the Groen and Ecolo parties have now said that they shall no longer give "unqualified support" to the government- the two parties were supporters of a government of which they were not members, but shall now become more like opposition parties, though any co-operation with the N-VA and in particular the VB has been firmly ruled out.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2012

Government Argues Over Abortion

A row has broken out within the coalition government over whether to further Belgium's abortion law. Currently, Belgian women must have six days of counselling before an abortion, which must happen within the first twelve weeks of pregnancy. However, notable figures in the PS and OpenVLD have proposed that the counselling be abolished and the abortion limit raised to 16 or even 20 weeks, in order to "reduce the stigma" faced by women who want to abort, and to make "abortion, which is a right of every woman, more accessible". Elio di Rupo himself has suggested that he may, if possible, introduce abortion reforms within this government's tenure.

However, possible it might not be. Though the N-VA and VB have announced their opposition to the measure and called for abortion law to be devolved, opposition also exists within the government itself. CD&V leader Beke has pledged to resist any move to liberalise abortion law within Belgium, while the CDh has also indicated it would "need concessions" to get it to support any changes. However, the abortion law would likely be supported by the Green parties, and thus would pass in Parliament without CD&V/CDh support, and were the CD&V to pull out of the government over the matter, then the government would retain a wafer-thin majority with the CDh on side (and possibly the Greens). Yet such a move would severely alienate Flemish voters from the government, and perhaps it is because of this that the government has refrained from making official plans to reform abortion. However, it has made a good political football for all sides to kick about.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2013

N-VA 'Alternative Manifesto' Criticised

Bart de Wever's separatist N-VA, flying high in the polls and leading the opposition, has released an alternative manifesto for governing Belgium. The party has called for an immediate transfer of all powers other than defence and foreign affairs to the regions, with Federal taxes to be drastically cut in response to this, either to a sales tax or a flat rate income tax. The federal House of Representatives would also be abolished, and legislative power transferred to the Senate, which would consist of 31 directly elected senators, and 32 appointed by the Communities (15 Fl., 15 Fr., 2 Ger.). The army would remain roughly the same size, while Belgium would continue to press for European integration in foreign policy, and would seek to avoid conflict while remaining in NATO.

The N-VA has also released a manifesto for a subsequent N-VA led Flemish government, outlining a neoliberal agenda that would cut and flatten taxes and cut government spending, while emphasising the need for "a strong society" that integrates immigrants and keeps the abortion laws as they are. Most notably, however, the N-VA have called for a referendum on Flemish independence, claiming it to be "only fair that Flemings have a choice". Support for independence currently lies at 36%, an increase on last year.

Other parties have been swift to criticise the N-VA's proposals, with the Parti Socialiste arguing that "what is needed is a strong, united Belgium in this crisis, not one that divides itself into two," and OpenVLD leader de Croo simply asked "why, in this crisis, does de Wever think we need to throw money at the constitution?" The CD&V, the most likely coalition partner for the N-VA, was more interested, saying that "it would need changing, but there's a lot of good ideas in there too," while the Vlaams Belang praised the manifesto, and the Walloon right CDh called the manifesto "an important injection of ideas." No policy change is expected of the government, however, so it shall be up to the voters to decide what they think of those ideas at the next election.

Current opinion polls suggest that the N-VA would take over 40% of the Flemish vote and about 39 seats in the Chamber they want to abolish, with the PS set to gain only 22 seats. A hypothetical N-VA led coalition of Rightists and Greens would hold 90 seats, and would have to rely on one of the liberal parties (probably OpenVLD, set to get 10 seats) to pass the landmark reforms proposed.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2013

Government Struggling to Reach Budget Deal

The Belgian government is entering its most difficult few months, with a split between left and right over the next year's budget emerging, and a 'constitutional resolution' to be determined early in 2014 in order to save the CD&V's face before Flemish elections and undermine Bart de Wever's N-VA.

With the budget now comfortably within the constraints of the Fiscal Union Treaty's 3% deficit rules, but growth still sluggish and the recession ongoing, Elio di Rupo's PS, as well as the sp.a and the MR, want to see a Keynesian approach of less cuts to public services in order to keep unemployment from rising further and to boost growth. Indications suggest they would prefer to keep the deficit at around €9.5bn, or 2.66% of GDP, which would require €1.2bn of further cuts and tax rises. This ought to, according to PS insiders, bring Belgium back to growth, stop Wallonia from "full-blown depression", and thus make deficit reduction easier in 2015.

However, fearful of the N-VA threat, the OpenVLD and CD&V are joined by the Walloon CDh in supporting a continuation of the current agenda of cuts, with a new emphasis on business growth to free up the private sector and return Belgium to "long-term prosperity and unity". Indeed, concern has been raised that a too left-wing budget may result in an N-VA landslide in Flanders (and possibly the federal elections) and there not even being a Belgium to restore prosperity to by 2016. It is difficult to tell whether a compromise can be reached, or even whether the Flemish right is more interested in continuing in government than in salvaging its support by bailing out of an unpopular coalition.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2013

Budget Relies on Greens to Pass, Right Leaves Govt.

The CDh and CD&V parties have resigned from the coalition government as Elio di Rupo presses ahead with a broadly left-wing budget, raising taxes yet more and failing to cut deeper into the Kingdom's deficit. Only €970mn will actually be cut from the government budget this year, with the main casualty being the largely ignored military and the procurement budget. Tax rises will against mostly hit the wealthy and corporations, although a new rise in property tax is also expected to go through, hitting all.

Attempts to appeal to the Right by cutting business red tape failed, particularly given the CDh membership's growing concern at Wallonia becoming associated inexorably with Leftist politics due to N-VA condemnations, and the CD&V's desire to revive its flagging poll numbers and reposition itself as the pro-business and pro-union Flemish party, stealing the OpenVLD's right. Therefore, the new budget has had to be passed with Green support, and it is the Greens who hold the government up. Di Rupo now commands only 68 of 150 seats in Parliament, while the 13 held by the Greens, who refuse to join the formal coalition, will generally support it.

The constitutional convention has now been scrapped as a result of the government's strife, and elections are now likely to coincide with the regional elections in June 2014. With only 26 of 88 Flemish seats now within the government, insiders suggest that the current government is untenable, and a hypothetical 69-seat N-VA/CD&V/OpenVLD/CDh government supported by the far-right Vlaams Belang (as Geert Wilders' PVV propped up a Dutch government) is considered equally undesirable due to those far-Right connections and its lack of a base in Wallonia. Bart de Wever, certainly, is calling for new elections, saying that "we need a mandate for a referendum on Flemish independence, and for this useless government to be thrown out".

55% of Belgians want a new election, in which the N-VA is consistently tipped to score about 40 seats and the commanding role in government-forming negotiations.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q2 2014

Elections Draw Near

Campaigning has begun in the race to govern Belgium's communities and the federal government itself, with the N-VA holding a vast lead in the Flemish polls, and the Walloon race largely between socialists and liberals. Across the country, the struggling economy remains cause for much debate, with the N-VA claiming that "Flanders has had to bear the cross of Walloon depression for far too long," explaining that were Flemish and Walloon figures considered separately, Flanders' better position would be recognised by world markets, stimulating growth. Also in Flanders, the CD&V promoted closer European integration and free market stimulus across Belgium as the cure, with leader Wouter Beke saying "the Flemish-Walloon blame game has to end." Meanwhile Walloon liberals the MR have caused a stir by saying that "both federal and community governments must prepare for Flemish secession- we don't want it to happen, but it might and we can't get caught out." Socialist leader di Rupo's re-election campaign, however, insisted that "there must be no pandering to separatists," and that "the poor should continue to be our focus- if they don't grow, there is no point to 'growth'."

Of course, Flemish separatism has also permeated the debate, with the N-VA running on majority Flemish support for a referendum on independence, although 60% still intend to vote 'No'. CD&V is campaigning for greater devolution along with MR in Wallonia, while Brussels is becoming increasingly torn on the matter. As the economic heart of Belgium, Brussels could be disputed between Flanders and Wallonia, as a majority Francophone city surrounded by Flanders. The Pro Bruxsel Party, promoting Brussels as a unified and bilingual city with a strong voice on the national scale, is expected to do well in the new Brussels Constituency, buoyed by the support of Dutch-speakers whose parties are unlikely to gain seats.

Polls predict the N-VA to storm to victory in the Flemish regional elections, and the MR to be best placed to form a coalition in the Walloon vote, but whether the N-VA will have gained enough of a poll lead to form a stable coalition to push through most of its agenda, including the Flemish referendum, is up for debate. Indeed, what would happen if an N-VA Flemish government were to have to negotiate with an N-VA federal government over independence is an issue raised in political circles, but seemingly yet to concern the electorate.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q2 2014

N-VA Win Big In Elections

Election results for both the federal Parliament and community Parliaments have returned great news for Flemish separatism and the N-VA, with Bart de Wever's party winning 43 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, and falling just short of an overall majority in the Flemish Parliament. Geert Bourgeois, who shall become the Minister-President of Flanders, promised that a referendum on Flemish independence would be held in Spring 2015, and said that he would seek the incoming federal government's agreement to recognise and abide by the results of such a referendum. In the case of an N-VA government, as seems to be the most likely scenario, this will most likely happen- de Wever said that the results today "were a show of support for democracy, for freedom, and for common sense". He shall make supporting a referendum, though remaining neutral (while the Flemish government will campaign for a 'Yes'), a main plank of his coalition demands.

The full FEDERAL results are as follows:

CHAMBER OF REPRESENTATIVES

N-VA 43 (+15*) *LDD (1) merged into N-VA pre-election.
CD&V 13 (-4)
VB 10 (-2)
OpenVLD 9 (-4)
sp.a 9 (-4)
Groen 2 (-3)

PS 22 (-4)
MR 18 (0)
CDh 10 (+1)
Ecolo 5 (-3)
ProBruxsel 4 (+4)
PTB (Communist) 3 (+3)
FN (far-Right) 2 (+2)
PP 0 (-1)



SENATE (ELECTED SEATS)

N-VA 12 (+3)
CD&V 4 (0)
VB 3 (0)
sp.a 3 (-1)
OpenVLD 3 (-1)
Groen 0 (-1)

PS 6 (-1)
MR 6 (+2)
CDh 2 (0)
Ecolo 1 (-1)

CDh have expressed a desire to work with the N-VA, as have the CD&V, but both parties are firmly unionist and may demand a high price for support for a Flemish referendum, and together would only give a 66-seat minority, which would likely have to be backed up by the Vlaams Belang, still subject to a cordon sanitaire against them participating in any government. However, de Wever may pursue an informal agreement like seen in the Netherlands, whereby the VB 'condones' the coalition. However, support may also come from the other Flemish parties, hit hard in the recent poll and hoping that support for a referendum now may defeat separatism, while blocking one would hit their support further and fuel separatist fervour.

What is doubtless is that the Flemish Parliament shall move for a referendum and campaign for a 'Yes' vote, assuming that the explicitly separatist VB support an N-VA bill, forming a majority. Otherwise, the N-VA hope to retain their respectability by relying on the support of unionist parties, although an agreement with the VB to send a largely separatist slate of Senators to the Federal Parliament next month is quite likely.

Meanwhile in Wallonia, the PS have narrowly defeated the MR in both the Walloon Regional Parliament and the French Community Parliament, although an anti-PS coalition is possible. Fears have been raised, however, about the rise of the nationalist FN and communist PTB parties, both of whom got seats even in the Federal Parliament. In Brussels, the ProBruxsel party emerged as the second-most popular and is likely to join forces with liberals from both Francophone and Flemish ranks in either a centre-left or centre-right coalition, while Germany saw the autonomist ProDG group take a slender victory.

The full FLEMISH results are as follows:

N-VA 60 (+35)
CD&V 23 (-8)
OpenVLD 15 (-6)
sp.a 12 (-7)
VB 10 (-10)
Groen 3 (-4)
UF 1 (0)

The full WALLOON results are as follows:

FRENCH COMMUNITY PARLIAMENT

PS 28 (-7)
MR 24 (+1)
CDh 16 (0)
Ecolo 11 (-7)
ProBruxsel 6 (+6)
PTB 4 (+4)
FN 4 (+4)
FDF 1 (-1)

WALLOON REGIONAL PARLIAMENT

PS 23 (-6)
MR 22 (+3)
CDh 15 (+2)
Ecolo 8 (-6)
FN 4 (+4)
PTB 3 (+3)

The other results are as follows:

GERMAN PARLIAMENT

ProDG 6 (+2)
CSP 6 (-1)
SP 6 (+1)
PFF 3 (-1)
Ecolo 2 (-1)
Vivant 1 (-1)
PTB 1 (+1)

BRUSSELS PARLIAMENT

MR 20
ProBruxsel 16
PS 15
CDh 12
Ecolo 7
PTB 5
N-VA 3
OpenVLD 3
sp.a 2
VB 2
CD&V 2
FN 2

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q3 2014

Shock As Government Formed After Only 67 Days


New Prime Minister, the N-VA's Bart de Wever

Belgium today is celebrating its fastest government formation for 11 years, but could it also be its last? The N-VA have, as expected, been able to form a coalition government which shall accept the results of a Flemish independence referendum in the Spring of 2015, but several concessions have had to be made. The CD&V and CDh have demanded that an alternative confederal proposal be made by the Belgian government that would be implemented in the case of a 'No' vote, and that Bart de Wever shall step down as Prime Minister in the result of a 'Yes' vote, allowing a Walloon and unionist Prime Minister- probably Charles Michel of the MR- to manage and negotiate the breakup of the Kingdom. ProBruxsel have also demanded that an enquiry on Brussels' status in the Kingdom or in a divorce be completed before any referendum in Flanders, and that a referendum on Brussels' status be held afterwards.

The members of the coalition are to be the N-VA (43), the CD&V (13), the CDh (10), the MR (18), and ProBruxsel (4), to be supported by the VB (10), who shall not form part of the coalition. Overall, this gives the new government 98 seats of 150, a decent majority of 46, and in the case of an MR walkout (as has been deemed a distinct possibility), the government would retain VB support and a slim majority of 10. The MR have demanded an equalisation clause between the parts of Belgium in the case of a confederalist victory, and allegedly the Premiership in case of a separatist victory. Otherwise, the new government shall introduce a more neo-liberal agenda to attempt to alleviate the Belgian economic crisis, although N-VA proposals to further divide economic statistics along community lines have been dropped due to Walloon party pressure. Deeper spending cuts shall be met with tax cuts to try and spur on private sector growth in the budget for 2015, while the re-privatisation of Dexia shall become a priority, although it is likely to be further split into Flemish and Walloon operations beforehand.

The new government shall also have a majority in the Senate. Of the co-opted Senators, 3 shall be from the N-VA, 2 from the MR and PS each, and 1 from the sp.a, CD&V, and OpenVLD each. Also, as the MR form both governments in Wallonia and the N-VA one in Flanders, the community senators have been appointed. 5 from N-VA, 2 from CD&V, and 1 from VB, sp.a, and OpenVLD; 4 from MR, 4 from PS, and 2 from CDh; and 1 from the German ProDG. This makes the Senate as follows:

N-VA 20 (+6)
CD&V 7 (0)
sp.a 5 (-2)
OpenVLD 5 (-1)
VB 4 (-1)

PS 12 (0)
MR 12 (+4)
CDh 4 (0)
Ecolo 1 (-4)

The government thus has 47 seats out of 71, but would be a minority were MR to pull out.

The defeated PS, meanwhile, have voted in favour of retaining Elio di Rupo as their leader, and have vowed to "oppose at every step the forces of unfairness, of austerity, and of separatist nationalism." Similarly, the OpenVLD have not joined their Walloon partners the MR in government, claiming to be "concerned about the nationalist angle of this coalition," and the sp.a have criticised what they called "a brutal and divisive right-wing government". Nonetheless, they shall have to try and divide the government up before it can change the country in the most radical way in decades.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q3 2014

German Community Votes on Autonomy

In the first of an expected raft of referendums across the country, the German-speaking Community of Belgium is to vote on whether it should gain autonomy as a region, thus withdrawing from Wallonia. Though a separate community, and thus with devolved power over cultural and linguistic issues, the East Cantons are considered part of the Walloon region, which is responsible for health and education. Given its size, the Germanophones have little if any say in Walloon regional politics, and so the autonomist ProDG government of the Community has called for the East Cantons to become a separate province and region of Belgium. It shall become an electoral district of its own, with one seat in the Chamber of Representatives, and one seat in the Senate- by-elections shall be held in case of a 'Yes' vote to return these new representatives.

Minister-President Oliver Paasch asked Prime Minister de Wever for a referendum within days of the government being formed, capitalising on the Flemish confederalist and separatist dominated government's approach to the constitution to get a referendum organised for September 27th. Only the Vivant party opposes the measure within the German-speaking Community, and the Walloon regional government has stated that it "shall not stand in the way of the will of the East." Polls show that about 70% shall vote in favour of autonomisation, thus creating the new Province (and Region) of Eupen-Sankt Vith, all of which shall share the same Parliament as the German-speaking Community. However, concerns have been raised about whether services would be of such a high-quality in such a small authority, and many- particularly within the Walloon body politic- have claimed that this is a precursor to Germanophone secession to join either Germany or Luxembourg. It is expected that the Walloon Region and French Community shall thus merge as organisations, as they shall thus be (like Flanders) coterminous except for the Community's presence in Brussels.

On the subject of Brussels and Communities, it is possible that the concepts of Communities and Regions shall be merged as part of the confederal counter-proposal to Flemish independence, leaving Belgium a confederation of four regions (Flanders, Wallonia, Eupen-Sankt Vith, and an officially bilingual Brussels). This is a major part of ProBruxsel's agenda in the coalition.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2014

German Community Votes "Yes" to Autonomy

The German-speaking community of Belgium is to become a region from the start of 2015, having voted in favour of increased autonomy. As a result, the French Community government is preparing to merge its functions with those of the Walloon Regional government at the same time- Oliver Paasch declared the creation of the new region of Eupen-Sankt Vith as "a great day for our people, a great day for democracy," while Bart de Wever congratulated the Germanophones on their decision, and expressed his happiness at "ESV" becoming "an equal player in our negotiations".

The results in full:

YES 71.94%
NO 28.06%

By-elections for the new German Parliamentary seats shall be held in January. ProDG are expected to win both seats.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2014

Separatist Campaign Begins, Buoyed By Polls

Support for Flemish independence now stands at a record 43% with just four months to go before Flanders, Brussels excluded, votes on ending the 185-year-old Belgian state. This new poll coincides with the launch of the pro-independence campaign and manifesto, which outlines the benefits Flanders could gain from independence, and what it hopes and plans to achieve in negotiations with the federal government. Speakers at the launch included Prime Minister Bart de Wever, Flemish Premier Geert Bourgeois, and VB leader Bruno Valkeniers, alongside various TV personalities. According to the separatists, Flanders' economic prosperity would be truly recognised after independence, boosting growth; while it would also be able to promote and protect its own culture better.

Criticism has come from unionist figures immediately, with the OpenVLD planning to issue a point-by-point rejection of the separatist manifesto by next week. Former European Council President Herman van Rompuy, expected to lead the unionist campaign, denounced the "fiction" of the manifesto, and the "unsolidaritous, unilateral, and sentimental nationalism" of the event. The sp.a also claimed that the independence campaign was "unavowedly right-wing," bemoaning the "demonisation of the Left" and lack of Left-wing voices at the event. Figures from the rest of Belgium, including Elio di Rupo and Oliver Paasch, also expressed their concern.

Wallonia, meanwhile, is watching closely France's political situation. It has been long suggested that Flemish secession would lead to Wallonia choosing to merge with its fellow Francophones, and support for this scenario in case of Flemish independence reached 70% after President Sarkozy's proposal of a federal French state. However, France has recently been beset by mass riots that have caused Sarkozy's resignation and immediate elections (before a referendum on federalism could be held). The figurehead of this revolution, and favourite to become the new President, is a shady American known only as "Mr. Blanc". The first poll taken since Sarkozy's resignation has shown support for rattachism to France fall to 37%, with 55% of Walloons (up from 24%) in favour of continuing as an independent state or in confederation with Brussels and ESV.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2015

Do the Separatists Want a Republic?

Concern has been raised among Flemish unionists about the status of the Belgian monarchy in an independent Flanders. Though both N-VA and VB are republican, and the royal family (though fluent in Flemish) speaks French at home and reside in Brussels, a majority of Flemings wish to retain the monarchy regardless of their country's status, and an even greater proportion of Walloons oppose abolishing the monarchy. Due to the main separatist parties' republicanism, the CD&V has accused them of wanting to do away with the monarchy as well, and warn that this would be the inevitable result of a separate Flanders. They have cited the lack of monarchist separatist campaigners, and historic animosity towards the monarch's "noble" role of maintaining national unity in Belgium, as reasons for this claim.

However, Bart de Wever has criticised these claims as "spurious," and has outlined plans for a referendum on the Flemish monarchy before independence is formalised, claiming that in the event of a royalist victory he would "serve happily under the King" and would even find a castle, estate or palace in Flanders proper (as opposed to Brussels) for the monarchy. Nonetheless, he reiterated that he would, though the government itself would remain neutral, campaign for a republic, believing it "suited to our national and democratic needs". Support for independence is steady at 42%, and a Unity Rally held in Brussels on Friday seems to have ended the separatist surge.

Meanwhile, both PS and N-VA are claiming credit for pleasing new economic figures, which showed 1.2% growth and a fall in unemployment. Elio di Rupo claimed that "de Wever's austerity and separation is going to ruin the recovery that we've worked so hard to get," while N-VA Finance Minister Sarah Smeyers said that "it is no small wonder that when the PS get kicked out, the economy gets a kick-start."

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2015

Neck-And-Neck As Flanders Prepares For Vote

Reassurances from France and Germany that an independent Flanders' position within the EU and Eurozone would be safe have allayed the fears of many swing voters in the Flemish separation referendum, a poll claims. With 47% each supporting Belgium and independence, the first poll so far to have had an even tie, the figure would change to 42%-51% were Flanders' European position to be in question, as seemed the case last year before the Flemish and federal governments enquired as to whether European states would accept Flanders as a successor state to Belgium, automatically inheriting its predecessor's status within the EU.

With one week of campaigning left before the vote, Bart de Wever has been on a punishing schedule of barnstorming across Flanders for independence, leading to criticism from the PS: "the Prime Minister's in Antwerp, campaigning, Sarah Smeyers is doing the same in Brugge, Wouter Beke's off in Leuven, and Valkeniers is rallying the base in Limburg. Half the government, if not more, is off elsewhere- who's running the country? I know the Prime Minister wants it so, but Belgium isn't dead yet, and it needs a government!" However, Charles Michel of the MR, likely post-Yes Prime Minister, claims that he is de facto in charge and is "in close and constant contact" with the Prime Minister and other ministers. "It is best the Flemings hear both sides clearly and make an informed decision, than they go to the polls blind because Elio di Rupo wanted all the government in Brussels."

De Wever spoke in Antwerp yesterday, claiming that "this is our chance to make a stand. To say that Flemish issues are best sorted out by Flemish people, that Flanders deserves to be an independent state with its own voice in Europe and in the world, with a flourishing economy. This is an opportunity we cannot miss." Meanwhile, Herman van Rompuy has been ditched as campaign leader against independence due to an alleged lack of charisma and failure to exploit the sentimental side of the pro-Belgium campaign. To this end, Steve Stevaert, new de facto campaign leader, told a Ghent crowd that "if you vote Yes, you will be throwing away centuries of community, a successful union, and countless everyday things that come with being part of Belgium. Are our differences so great? It's not Flemish fries or Walloon fries, but Belgian fries. Cycling is Belgian. Brussels is Belgian. I could go on." Both speeches were well-received by their audiences, but it was de Wever who reached most front pages, albeit not always positively. Campaigning continues.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2015

It's Yes!

In a historic turn of events, Flanders has narrowly voted YES to independence from Belgium, as the No team concedes defeat. Reports show that 52.8% of Flemings have opted to secede, while 47.2% voted to remain part of Belgium. However, it has been clarified that no municipalities will be transferred out of or into Flanders before independence, despite the overwhelming No votes in mostly Francophone peripheries of Brussels (such as 91% in Linkebeek, or 84% in Sint-Genesius-Rode). These areas near Brussels and near the Walloon border were joined in voting No by a decent majority in West Flanders (including Brugge) and Western parts of East Flanders. However, Antwerp and Limburg voted quite overwhelmingly for separation, and analysts are claiming that the Yes campaign's ability to convince the city of Antwerp and its cosmopolitan populace is its greatest triumph.

Bart de Wever, incidentally, chose Antwerp for his election night headquarters, and gave his victory speech there: "tonight, they will say, a nation is born. No it is not. Flanders is an ancient and proud nation, and tonight it gains the independence and the recognition that it deserves. Now we can go forward, and truly make our nation known across the world- we can, nay we shall, do it, and we shall do it ourselves, as Flemings!" The crowd was jubilant from the first exit polls, which declared a 52% vote for independence, right through to the roaring cheers that met Steve Stevaert's concession of defeat. Flemish lion flags were flying all through the night, and security was tight to ensure that no offenses against Belgium or Wallonia were seen, with the only altercation being between security and a group of supporters whose "Walen Buiten" banner was being confiscated.

Given its confusion throughout, it was perhaps appropriate that there were two separate concession speeches from the No campaign, based in unionist Brugge. After Steve Stevaert officially conceded defeat, he spoke that "Belgium is not lost. It will remain in our hearts, and in our minds. Whatever the separatists may want, they will never kill Belgium and they will never stop us calling ourselves Belgian. We live on in hope that one day, like so many times before, Belgium shall be reunited." However, Herman van Rompuy's speech was less defiant, and called on unionists to work with Europe for unity- "this is the last gasp of nationalism. We must turn now to another multilateral, multicultural project, our European project- that which we share with other Belgians and with all Europe. Europe united is Belgium united, nationalism defeated."



The implications are wide-ranging. De Wever is resigning as Prime Minister in favour of Charles Michel, who is to agree to ESV's demands for a referendum on whether to join Germany, Luxembourg, or remain with Wallonia, as demanded by Oliver Paasch. Brussels, however, is the main cause for concern, as an overwhelmingly Francophone city surrounded by Flanders. Four options are to be placed on the referendum there- independence with a view to becoming an EU Capital Region, autonomy within Flanders, autonomy within Wallonia, and Flemish-Walloon condominium. All have a degree of popularity- Dutch-speakers favour Flanders, immigrant groups independence, and Francophones are split between condominium, independence, and Wallonia. Recent polls put 34% in favour of independence, 25% for Wallonia, 22% in favour of Flanders, and 19% for condominium- however, condominium is the least opposed plan of all, and over half of voters are open to changing their mind. Flanders, meanwhile, is to decide on the status of the monarchy, and Wallonia is to vote on whether to join France or become independent.

The Belgian state, however, is set to dissolve itself on January 1st, 2016, leaving however many states there may end up being in its wake. King Albert has congratulated the Flemish people on their choice, and has said that though he shall look back on Belgium with fondness, he shall be happy- if wanted- to "serve as King of the Flemings, King of the Walloons, or King of any other nation that the Belgian people wish to found."

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q2 2015

Germans To Apply To Join Germany

The Eupen-St. Vith region, majority German, has voted in its status referendum to apply to join the Federal Republic of Germany on January 1st, 2016. There were four options on offer to ESV residents- Wallonia, Germany, Luxembourg, or sovereignty, and Oliver Paasch campaigned for merger with Germany, while socialist leader Karlheinz Lambertz campaigned for union with Luxembourg, claiming that it would help preserve ESV's "economy, power, and freedom". However, the pro-German campaign drew upon Germany's successful economy, Luxembourg's relative insignificance, and the lack of contiguity between Eupen and St. Vith, to propel itself to victory. An instant run-off system was used, with the last placed option eliminated each time until an option won a majority.

The results in full:

FIRST ROUND:

GERMANY 31.1%
LUXEMBOURG 28.5%
WALLONIA 21.7%
SOVEREIGNTY 18.7%

SECOND ROUND:

GERMANY 35.5%
LUXEMBOURG 35.1%
WALLONIA 29.4%

RUN-OFF:

GERMANY 54.1%
LUXEMBOURG 45.9%

Eupen-St. Vith shall formally request that Eupen join Nordrhein-Westfalen, and St. Vith join Rheinland-Pfalz, tomorrow. If the German and provincial governments accept, then they shall join on January 1st, 2016. If not, then Paasch shall appeal to Luxembourg, then Wallonia, and finally prepare to establish an independent state.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q2 2015

Independence for Wallonia

Rattachists during their unsuccessful campaign, at a rally in Namur.

Wallonia has voted to become an independent kingdom upon the dissolution of the Belgian state, comfortably rejecting the rattachist proposal of applying to join France. The instability that hit France last year, resulting in the forced resignation of President Sarkozy, the subsequent apparent abandonment of a planned referendum on a federal constitution, and the serious candidacy of an American actor in the post-revolutionary elections dealt rattachism a fatal blow from which it could not recover, with a large majority of Walloons consistently citing "concern about French politics" as their main reason for voting against union.

The monarchy, much-loved among Walloons, and Wallonia's loss of autonomy under French rule were also denounced, with pro-independence Elio di Rupo claiming also that President Juppé's deficit reduction policy would be just as bad for Wallonia as Bart de Wever's. "What is needed," said di Rupo, "is autonomy for our nation. Autonomy where we can pursue our own economic policy, get ourselves out of crisis, and be proud Walloons." Moreover, many Walloons noted that Brussels is unlikely to want to join France and surrender its capital status, and so is more likely to join Wallonia as an independent state.

Though unsuccessful, the rattachist movement, led by former Minister-President Jean-Claude Van Cauwenberghe, who resigned from that post in 2005 due to scandal, cited the benefits of joining a major world power and a strong economy, and that fears of Wallonia being neglected as part of a large country were 'scaremongering'. "Van Cau" also played upon Francophone unity, claiming that "Wallonia and France were separated by politics, united by people. Let the people unite us again." However, this argument was outweighed by fears for the declining Walloon dialect in the notoriously prescriptive French education system.

Results in full:

INDEPENDENCE 65.47%
RATTACHISM 34.53%

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q3 2015

Brussels to Join Flanders

After a long and hard-fought campaign, the Brussels-Capital Region has voted in favour of joining Flanders, defeating independence, condominium, and Wallonia as the preferred option in an instant-runoff plebiscite. Though initially popular and capitalising on Brussels' Francophone majority, economic concerns destroyed the popularity of either condominium or union with Wallonia, on the grounds that they would mean "equalisation, equalisation, equalisation," and that "the first thing the Prime Minister of Wallonia shall do is ask for a bailout. They will be like Belgium in the 1990s." Though fears that union with Wallonia would mean union with France were dispelled by the Walloon referendum, pro-Flemish campaigners asked Brussels to "look into its heart, and ask if it is truly Walloon." Clearly, the answer was no.

The Flemish campaign, though it could rely on a decently-sized core of Dutch-speaking voters, sought actively to appeal to Francophones, and appealed to both 'native' and 'immigrant' Brusselers, with one hand claiming that "Brussels is already struggling to integrate immigrants. As a separate state, where immigrants form a majority, what hope is there?", and with the other appealing to Congolese-descent voters by insisting that "only Flanders can be a serious voice for human rights in the Congo and the rest of Africa. Brussels would have a weak voice, if the EU were to allow it a voice." Thus the Flemish campaign established a coalition of Dutch-speakers, right-wing Belgian-born Francophones, and relatively new African immigrants. They also emphasised the economic benefits of union with Flanders, claiming it would help solve Brussels' high unemployment rate, and protect against economic volatility and the threat of a debt crisis.

The independence campaign, meanwhile, played similar games. It said that union with Flanders would mean "not so much as Wallonia, but still- equalisation, equalisation," citing Brussels' high GDP per capita. It claimed that Brussels' cosmopolitan nature offered it the chance to "become its own, vibrant, multicultural society, where we don't need or want 'integration'." However, it also affirmed that Brussels is "French-speaking," and described Flemish rule as "a threat" that could lead to "Batavianisation". It drew support from those connected to the EU institutions, and many allophones and left-wing Francophones.

Results in full:

ROUND ONE

Flanders 41%
Independence 29%
Condominium 18%
Wallonia 12%

ROUND TWO

Flanders 42%
Independence 34%
Condominium 24%

ROUND THREE

Flanders 52%
Independence 48%

Bart de Wever has congratulated the people of Brussels and welcomed their decision, and has pledged to respect Brussels' bilingual nature in the constitution, the committee of which he shall chair when it begins later this week. It is understood that that constitution will call for a unicameral system with smaller, Irish-style, constituencies, as part of a move towards a more stable politics. Wallonia too is to decide on its new constitution, with a view to a bicameral system.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q4 2015

Partition Draws Near

Less than a month now remains of Belgium's existence as a state, as negotiations are completed between Flanders and Wallonia, and both nations' constitutions are unveiled. Germany, meanwhile, has agreed to accept Eupen-St. Vith into the Bundesrepublik, and Oliver Paasch shall become a Minister without Portfolio to oversee the integration of the East Cantons with Germany.

Meanwhile, Bart de Wever has presented the provisional Flemish constitution to his nation. Flanders shall remain a monarchy, and have a single-chamber Parliament, comprised of 125 members, 20 from Brussels and 105 from the rest of Flanders. These members shall be elected by the Single Transferable Vote system employed in Ireland- Brussels constituencies shall have four members, while constituencies in Flanders proper shall differ in size, reflecting provincial boundaries and urban/rural differences. The hope is to balance proportionality with a system that will encourage less fragmented and thus more stable Parliaments. In the event that a Parliament is unstable, the King shall take on his traditional role of directing the formation of a government, provided that the public vote in favour of monarchy in a referendum in February (another question will ask whether the Flemings accept the constitution at all). Meanwhile, de Wever has called leading legal figures to look into revising the Belgian civil law code, with a view towards increasing the Dutch/Germanic influence, and lessening that of France, and Brussels' status as a bilingual city is to be enshrined in the constitution- any cultural policy move that affects Brussels will require the support of a majority of Brussels' MPs.

The Walloon constitution shall have no such change to the legal code. However, it has decided in favour of a radical overhaul of the political system, opting to establish a bicameral system, with a dominant lower house of 100 members elected by single-member constituencies in the French style, in the hope that it shall generate a strong government capable of dealing with Wallonia's expected debt crisis, and an upper house of 30 members elected by pure proportional representation, with the role of revising (but not outright vetoing) laws passed by the lower house. However, in cases of budgetary matters, the upper house can only give recommendations for change, and can be ignored. The monarch will inherit his duties as King of Belgium, as in Flanders.

Both countries are due to hold referenda on their constitutions in February, with both expected to overwhelmingly ratify them, due largely to support from almost all political groups. The monarchy vote in Flanders is to be more of a contest, with de Wever and his N-VA set to campaign for a republic. However, the former unionist coalition is confident of victory, citing the support of a handful of N-VA MPs, and the King as a figurehead for their campaign. 61% of Flemings currently favour monarchy, to 35% for a republic. Elections shall then be held, in case of the constitutions being ratified, in Wallonia in March, and in Flanders in April.

Meanwhile, the nation's debts are to be divided based on population share, state assets are to be divided based on whether they are in Flemish or Walloon territory, and then by population share, and Flanders and Wallonia shall share embassies and consulates, with the plan that both shall retain half of all of Belgium's foreign buildings, and have to eventually leave the other half after finding suitable alternative places. The entire navy shall go to Flanders, since Wallonia is a landlocked state, but the air force and army shall be divided 50-50.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q1 2016

Long Live Flanders, the Constitution, and the King

Flanders has followed the lead of neighbour Wallonia in voting in favour of its new Constitution. Little by way of opposition to the Constitution was offered, but an organised 'No' campaign developed around Charles Picqué, Brussels' former socialist leader, who claimed that the new Constitution would surrender proportionality and destroy Brussels' autonomy. However, no major political parties rallied to his cause, with the exception of the Union des Francophones, and the neutral ProBruxsel.

The 'Yes' campaign, meanwhile, supported by all major parties, promoted stability, national unity with cultural protections, and strong governance as reasons to support the Constitution- yet the campaign was divided on the subject of the second question, that of the monarchy. Despite having the two leading politicians in the country- Geert Bourgeois and Bart de Wever- and the N-VA in general on its side, the republican campaign was unable to gain much traction against the monarchists, supported by the former unionist parties and using extensive royal imagery, rather than relying on a particular politician to lead their cause.

Results in full:

YES TO CONSTITUTION: 65.33%
NO TO CONSTITUTION: 34.67%

MONARCHY: 59.24%
REPUBLIC: 40.76%

Meanwhile, a political realignment is taking shape before April 24th's elections. Many figures from the CD&V, OpenVLD, and sp.a have left their parties to join with the Union des Francophones and Vivant, and thus form a Union for Belgium (UVB). Guy Verhoftsadt has volunteered to lead the party, which shall have 20 seats in Parliament and thus form the Official Opposition until election day. The N-VA, however, hopes to divide into conservative and liberal camps, and then merge those camps with the CD&V and OpenVLD, within the next fortnight, in an attempt to 'normalise' Flemish politics before the election.

[Belgium (Angleter)]

Q2 2016

De Wever Elected PM

Despite the chaotic almost-disbandment of his N-VA party earlier this year, Bart de Wever has coasted to an easy victory in the first elections for an independent Flanders. De Wever had spoke in early 2016 of his hope that the N-VA's various political wings would split off and join the traditional unionist parties, but eventually only small factions left to join the CD&V and OpenVLD parties. De Wever thus in March announced the "new direction" for the now ECR-affiliated N-VA, as an Atlanticist, low-tax and free-market conservative-libertarian party, "in the tradition of Burke, Hayek, and Thatcher".

The "New New Flemish Alliance" retained much of the old N-VA's support, and fended off attacks from socialists, liberals, christian democrats, and Belgian unionists to take an easy victory in the election. The OpenVLD had a resurgence, having recognised Bart Somers' call for a social-liberal 'revolution' in the party to distance itself from the free-market ideology now espoused by the N-VA. Having lost most of the right-wing vote, and with further losses to the OpenVLD and Unionist parties, the CD&V were particularly decimated, emerging with only nine seats. However, they can expect to be called on by de Wever to form a coalition government.

This means the nationalist VB, who also suffered, will miss out. Both they and the CD&V scored poorly in comparison to even the Unionists, who scored a "solid" ten seats in the new Parliament, despite being intolerable coalition partners for the N-VA. The sp.a, who had ruled out a deal with de Wever, came third in the election, and called for talks with the OpenVLD to co-operate more closely against the dominant Right.

RESULTS IN FULL:

N-VA 39.1%, 50 seats
OpenVLD 21.5%, 27 seats
sp.a 12.7%, 16 seats
Unionist 8.3%, 10 seats
CD&V 8.1%, 9 seats
VB 6.3%, 8 seats
ProBruxsel 1.5%, 3 seats
Groen! 1.8%, 2 seats



The darker the colour, the greater proportion of seats taken in that constituency.

Bart de Wever shall thus take over from Geert Bourgeois as PM, with a coalition agreement with the CD&V expected to make Wouter Beke the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister, until his replacement as CD&V leader is found. Geert Bourgeois shall become Finance Minister.