Libya, Federal Kingdom of, المملكة الل

[Libya (AaronH)]

As I am one of the people who supports the alternate factbook approach first used by Schwerpunkt's Russia and more recently Dax's Turkey I shall be adopting their format. Alongside this I will use the factbook to retroactively fill in the political history of Libya and major events for the years it was inactive in regards to continuing reformation.

The first post shall contain a starting point summary of Libya in 2012 with concurrent posts containing early game existing foreign policy and then political updates for each year until 2015 before from that point onwards updating at the close of every year in regards to Domestic Policy, Foreign Policy and Military News.

Wikipedia Article on the Libyan State

I. 2012 Summary
II. 2013 Summary
III. 2014 Summary
IV. 2015 Summary
V. Overview [2016]

[Libya (AaronH)]

Summary of 2012

The opening of 2012 saw Libya, while officially at peace still suffering the throes of civil conflict. With Gaddafi dead at the hands of one of the many rebel battalions and his son Saif Al-Islam the only leading member of his government still at large within the country the rebel groups not directly under the control of the National Liberation Army promptly began to splinter from TNC control. With the power of the Gaddafi loyalists dispersed and all but destroyed the TNC made the short term mistake of focusing away from the final destruction of these last remnants and instead attempted to exert its control over the now skirmishing rebel groups.

Minor hints that the TNC was not able to exert the control it, and its western supporters claimed it held came following a small skirmish outside the southern city of Sabha. With the Toubou tribe, long time loyalists to Gaddafi coming into conflict with elements of the National Liberation Army. While the Toubou insurgents quickly scattered it left ten government soldiers dead and was seen as a rallying point by many of the remaining loyalists.

This ongoing situation with the southern insurgents was highlighted later in the year with the liberation by al-Magarha of just over 100 Nigerian Mercenaries from the detention facility they had been kept in just north of Tummu. However while some analysts world wide predicted that this would just lead to further escalation of the violence centred around the tribal south the expected resurgence did not occur except for a small assault on a NLA facility in Ghat.

In the political sphere there was one major incident with the Chairman of the TNC declaring that the federalisation plan of many in the western provinces alongside the cousin to the remaining Senussi heir was nothing short of 'impossible' stating that any such plan would be to the detriment of the country as a whole. He went on to elaborate that other federalisation plans have always lead to a slowing of recovery due to a lack of ability by government to intervene in society where needed.

Despite the ongoing wider troubles and unrest in the south the country as a whole saw massive resurgence in terms of economic output. With open warfare having died down to embers much effort was made by the TNC to bring the oil, natural gas and water facilities back online and the swift and united action in this regard saw the economy bounce back from the war with roughly 16% growth. However, it is thought that this huge growth is not sustainable and observers note that substantial changes to investment law within the country will be necessary to maintain strong growth and to diversify the industrial sector.

[Libya (AaronH)]

Summary of 2013

With the state of Libya still in flux at the close of 2012 it was expected that 2013 would be a year of reform and growth in terms of politics within the country. The TNC would pass its second year in charge this year despite its stated temporary nature and work was only just beginning as to the progression towards a democratically chosen government at the dawn of the new year. 2013 would be marked by several important decisions being made and a date being chosen for the second foundation of the state.

Despite this however the people of Libya began the year with a sour taste in their mouths as the TNC announced it would be creating the first government body to be established in the 'New Libya'. This was nothing other than a new intelligence service and many towns throughout the country saw small demonstrations that the TNC was overstepping its bounds and focusing on the wrong problems. The TNC rode this wave of distaste however announcing that the agency would be looking at 'terrorists, illegal militias and foreign agents' as the aim of its charter, a phrase which did not reassure many of the Libyan people.

At the opening of April the TNC was able to announce that a decision had finally been made for an interim Prime Minister to last until the beginning of formal democratic elections. This measure was not met with the joy the TNC had hoped however despite the choice of celebrated hero Suleiman Mahmoud to the prestigious office. Many people instead wondered 'when will democratic elections come to Libya when only now, 18 months after victory an interim Prime Minister is named?'.

Despite the initial disdain from the people towards the new 'Libyan State Security and Intelligence Agency' they were to prove their worth in the summer of 2013 with Tripoli International Airport having being seized by Mokhtar al-Akhdar in 2011 and recent calls from the TNC to disarm being ignored the LSSIA decided to use the airport as their first large operation. al-Akhdar was reported to have as many as 1,800 under his direct command within the armed militia and as such the LSSIA was targeted as a surgical strike to remove al-Akhdar and with it the backbone of the militia. The operation was broadly successful with the deaths of just 34 occurring, including 3 LSSIA agents, leading to the death of al-Makhdar and his personal guard and the surrender and disarmament of the rest of his militia.

The Autumn of 2013 was chosen for the first of several 'Constitutional Referendums' decided upon by the TNC to guide Libya into a brighter future. Prime Minister Mahmoud and the TNC Chairman were seen and heard frequently on state television and radio explaining the first of these referendums in regards to the status of the House of Senussi and the vacant throne of Libya. With options being limited to just three it was hoped that this would give a definite reading of the views of the Libyan people. The result while not as clear cut as hoped, with just 21% of voters in Tripolitania voting in favour of a return of the monarch. However, overwhelming support in Cyrencia lead to the referendum being passed in favour of the returning monarch with the final figures as follows;

YES: 45.6%
NO: 38.7%
ABSTAIN: 17.7%

So it was at the close of 2013 that Libya returned to the status of Kingdom last enjoyed before the original Gaddafi revolution. However, it seems certain that the status owned by the King shall be nothing more than a figurehead position similar to the of the British Monarch. With referendums on the status of federalisation and the broad model to follow in the constitution to come in 2014 it seems that Libya was on the path towards a new and uncertain future.

[Libya (AaronH)]

Summary of 2014

To the surprise of the world stage and not least to Mohammed El-Senussi when he was chosen by the TNC as the existing heir to the throne. With the coronation being planned for the autumn of 2014 it was timed to take place just days after the final of the 'Three Major Choices' of the Libyan people. That being the choice in regards to choosing between a Turkish-Style Secular constitution or instead moving towards one modelled around Sharia Law. The year was also one of much rejoicing with the final fate of Saif al-Islam being decided in the High Courts in Tripoli alongside strong growth figures owing to the rising prices of oil globally.

The budget for 2013 was posted with an underestimate of average oil prices leading to the ability of the TNC to post for the 2014 budget the plowing of this underspend into further reconstruction projects. The most notable of these was the restarting of the 'Great Manmade River' project by the government with notable attention to be paid to the as yet un-built Tobruk and Gadarnes lines. While the Western branch passing through Gadarnes was chosen to draw water directly from one of the main lines leading from the aquifer the executive money saving decision was made to connect the Tobruk lines from the main central network, notably passing through Benghazi and Cyrene en-route to the Eastern city.

Alongside this the TNC was able to announce that oil exports had finally grown to pre-war levels with 2.2 million bbl per day being produced and exported with much of this being shipped to the EU where it no doubt eased some of the sky-rocketing oil prices. The TNC went further to suggest that in the period leading to 2017 Libya planned to expand this production further with new oil fields being expanded to increase production. Alongside this will be the creation using a $12 billion, 4 year fund, of rebuilding and expanding Libya based refining facilities. The two initial planned locations for new native refining shall be Ajdabiyah and Sirte, this work was aimed at creating around 4,000 jobs in addition to the many thousands engaged on the enlarging of the Great Manmade River.

In March of the year was the long awaited referendum in regards to whether or not the country would decide upon embarking upon a new federal structure rather than the traditional centralised unified government. The only option put forward by the TNC was a US style central Federal Government with smaller devolved powers to the three member states. In both cases the options left the state as a monarchy due to the earlier passed referendum. As was to be expected despite the preference of the TNC away from such the people voted overwhelmingly in favour of federalisation. The vote passed with the following results;

YES: 64%
NO: 27%
ABSTAIN: 9%

As such this result altered the later planned 'Constitution Referendum' with the possibilities for the new Libyan Constitution being refined with the main options for the last referendums being decided upon by way of the type and source of law within the country. Throughout the summer Libya saw a resurgence of Pro-Green forces in the south rallying to an imagined escape of Saif al-Islam. The skirmishes between LSSIA forces and insurgents lasted through to August until Saif al-Islam was brought to public trial and sentenced to death for crimes against the Libyan people. With the death of one of the last bastions of Gaddafi's direct line many of the tribal militias deserted the Green cause with the LSSIA making huge gains in regards to the security of the southern regions.

These gains were significant enough for the TNC Minister for Industry was confident enough to state that he believed that it should be possible for foreign companies to be invited to Libya to begin searching for further oil reserves in regions long unavailable under the Gaddafi Tyranny. The months until the final referendum were marred with a rise in unrest between the pro-Secular and pro-Sharia camps within Libya to such a degree that the TNC was forced to make a decision to have NLA detachments present during the referendum in September. With a turn out of 81.4% of the population the final referendum was the largest one in terms of results with just 1.5% of voters abstaining. Despite this however there was an option which obtained the 5 clear percent needed to avoid a re-vote.

It was during the coronation of King Hasan I that the final decision was revealed with the first official function for the new name of Libya also being utilised for the first time. During his speech following the formal coronation in Tripoli the new King was given the honour of revealing the future path of Libya and the path it would follow in 2015.

'It is with a heart filled with happiness and hope that I speak to you today, the newly crowned King of this great nation. This nation which has endured many years of suffering but has emerged as the Federal Kingdom of Libya, a nation which will in years to come shine as a beacon of democratic governance within the Middle-East. With our choice to adopt a constitution based upon secular law ahead of the Sharia we have indicated that we shall work towards a future based upon a state separated from the trappings of religion and we look towards the constitution of our friends in Turkey to draft a successful new constitution for our great nation. I can state that the elections scheduled to take place in the summer of next year will be a turning point for our great nation, a point where your struggle against tyranny is rewarded and the new, democratically governed Libya will emerge.'

[Libya (AaronH)]

Summary of 2015

The speech given by King Hasan was one which simultaneously energised and polarised the population of Libya. While the TNC in its final months in power hoped for a peaceful transition to the first truly free governmental elections this sadly was not to be. With the elements of the Islamic Brotherhood and other hard line religious elements in the country being alienated by the decision to adopt a secular constitution the Pro-Green forces which had withered to a husk were unexpectedly granted more and influential allies.

A large number of militia groups which had been pacified and peacefully absorbed into the National Liberation Army swiftly moved to break all contact with government forces, now better equipped and trained due to their association with the official forces. Estimates but these groups at anything up to fifteen thousand and despite the best efforts of the LSSIA tracking the exact numbers was impossible with defensive positions being occupied in the west around Ghat and in the south the seizure of the city of Sabha.

In the capital of Tripoli itself a house to house gun fight developed quickly with the TNC forced to evacuate to Benghazi outside of the direct line of fire. The NLA was shown to be ill-prepared for true armed conflict within its own territory with the rusty and ill-organised command and communication structure being poorly designed for an internal threat. The one exception to this were the troops directly under the LSSIA authority with swift strikes on militia convoys heading south quickly negating as much as 8,000 who may have joined the cause near Sabha.

It was not until weeks later that the streets of Tripoli were captured once more and by that point the rebel militias supported by former Gaddafi military personnel had dug in around the civilian centres of Sabha and Ghat. Unable to bring the little air assets they possessed to bear the NLA was left with little choice once again but a frontal assault. With casualties high due equally to poor training as much as the enemy ability the campaign in the south was a protracted and bloody affair stretching to the early days of August.

The ongoing fighting forced the TNC to delay the elections until July and then even further back until October. So it was that the main parties which had formed were given a much more protracted political campaign then expected with several of the initially strong groups such as Mahmoud having grasped the leadership of the LDP from al-Jalil his Libyan Democratic Party quickly lost ground in what polls were available with the small party founded for the elections of Mustafa Abdul Jalil the sitting chairman of the TNC quickly gaining traction. With his well known links with the west and speeches which focus on the need of Libya to build strong relations with its Islamic neighbours while remaining open to western investment his party, the Maghrebi Democratic Union (MDU) made swift gains in the polls.

Indeed it seemed that the resurgent civil conflict served only to help Jalil and his party. With his experience in government and foreign affairs he was able to speak much more fluently and well when compared to the other candidates and his support grew especially in Tripolitana and Cyrencia where they saw his hand in the return of the monarchy to Libya. Finally on the 14th October 2015 the voting booths were opened with the attendance being estimated at 87.5% of those eligible to vote. The results within the three states were as follows;

Fezzan:

Suleiman Mahmoud, LDP ~ 30%

Abu Oweis, PFF ~ 11%

Abdurrahim El-Keib, PCfC ~ 13%

Ali Ashour, AJP ~ 18%

Hamza Abu Faris, LSS ~ 4%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, MDU ~ 22%

Abstain ~ 2%

Tripolitana:

Suleiman Mahmoud, LDP ~ 20%

Abu Oweis, PFF ~ 4%

Abdurrahim El-Keib, PCfC ~ 13%

Ali Ashour, AJP ~ 8%

Hamza Abu Faris, LSS ~ 4%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, MDU ~ 42%

Abstain ~ 7%

Cyrenica:

Suleiman Mahmoud, LDP ~ 12%

Abu Oweis, PFF ~ 14%

Abdurrahim El-Keib, PCfC ~ 12%

Ali Ashour, AJP ~ 11%

Hamza Abu Faris, LSS ~ 4%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, MDU ~ 34%

Abstain ~ 3%

Total Results:

Tripolitana:

Suleiman Mahmoud, LDP ~ 19%

Abu Oweis, PFF ~ 7%

Abdurrahim El-Keib, PCfC ~ 12%

Ali Ashour, AJP ~ 10%

Hamza Abu Faris, LSS ~ 12%

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, MDU ~ 35%

Abstain ~ 5%

It seemed that Mahmoud's gambit to displace al-Jalil from the helm of Libyan politics had failed with his MDU grabbing enough of the vote to, due to the system of first past the post which had been used, hold a majority of parliamentary seats. Despite finishing with just 35% of the popular vote his party was granted 71 of the 125 seats in the newly formed senate. This granted his party enough of a majority to form a government unaided, it is not expected however that the MDU will sweep into power in the local state elections in 2016, with the weakness in Fezzan likely to cost them control nationwide. The total allocation of seats to parties was as follows;

Libyan Grand Senate:

Suleiman Mahmoud, LDP ~ 15 Seats

Abu Oweis, PFF ~ 7 Seats

Abdurrahim El-Keib, PCfC ~ 11 Seats

Ali Ashour, AJP ~ 9 Seats

Hamza Abu Faris, LSS ~ 12 Seats

Mustafa Abdul Jalil, MDU ~ 71 Seats