Afghan News Digest, Published by the IWPR

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

The IWPR forges the skills and capacity of local journalism, strengthens local media institutions and engages with civil society and governments to ensure that information achieves impact. Amid war, dictatorship, and political transition, IWPR seeks to make sure that news produced by all major news organizations is available for public consumption both within and outside of Afghanistan.

Features

• Daily News Brief: Every day, the IWPR releases a summary of major news stories published by prominent Afghan news services.
• Weekly News Summary: Each week, the IWPR aggregates the major news services' coverage of major issues.
• Special Features: The IWPR intermittently publishes special features on major events within Afghanistan, especially pertaining to journalism or underrepresented communities.
• Personal Profiles: The IWPR regularly publishes profiles on major newsmakers in Afghanistan.
• Press Releases: The IWPR reproduces press releases made by major Afghan political bodies in their entirety.

Sources

• Bakhtar News Agency: News service run by the Karzai government. Affiliated with the Karzai administration.
• IRIN News - Afghanistan: Regular news on development and politics in Afghanistan. Affiliated with Northern, anti-Karzai groups.
• Voice of Jihad: News service run by the Afghan mujahideen. Affiliated with the Taliban.
• Afghan Islamic Press: Daily Afghan news, published from Peshawar, Pakistan. Affiliated with the Haqqani Network.

NOTE: Many of the descriptions of these sources have been oversimplified or straight-up falsified (like the Afghan Islamic Press). It should not be taken as a factual description of these news sources.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

July 18th, 2015
News Brief
Summary of major news, provided by the Institute for War and Peace Recording

Bakhtar News Agency
Revolt Suppressed in Kabul

A riot, led by disgraced former Vice President of Afghanistan Ahmad Zia Massoud quickly turned into a violent mob determined to cause chaos and lawlessness on the streets of Kabul. The violence was targeted at intimidating local shop owners and coercing Kabul citizens into joining a failed uprising against the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. While no definitive links have been made with known insurgent groups in the uprising, it is likely that there was coordination with other groups in the area.

Massoud is a known leader of riots that have taken place throughout the Kabul region, and is a nominal leader of the National Front for Afghanistan, one of the obstructionist blocs in the parliament behind the recent civil unrest. Massoud's riots frequently involve looting and robbing storekeepers, who have frequently complained of assaults against their persons during the riots.

The uprising was quelled by the vigilance of the Afghan National Police, of which two kandaks were present. The ANP were forced to use violence to put down the uprising, and roughly 25 rioters were killed. Several hundred were taken into custody as part of an ongoing investigation into the terrorizing of innocent Afghan civilians.

IRIN News - Afghansitan
ANP Massacres 349 in Kabul

During a routine protest led by Ahmad Zia Massoud, the first Vice President of Afghanistan and respected younger brother of Afghan National Hero Ahmad Shah Massoud, the Afghan National Police opened fire on the assembled unarmed civilians. The leaders of the protest had already been threatened repeatedly by representatives of the Karzai regime, which continues to unconstitutionally hold power in the presidential palace. When the protest was about to begin with the speech of Mr. Massoud, more than one thousand uniformed ANP and an unknown number of plainclothes police opened fire on the crowd indiscriminately. Both protesters and bystanders were targeted, and several uninvolved shopkeepers were also killed in the massacre.

After the police finally ceased firing into the crowd, they swooped in to arrest nearly 600 more innocent protesters, who had violated no legitimately passed law. The prisoners were taken to an unknown location, and the bodies of the martyrs were removed without ceremony and hidden from the families, preventing their proper Muslim burial. Sporadic reports of desecration of the corpses, in the same manner as American troops used to during their occupation, have been coming in throughout the day.

In a statement to the press, Massoud said that the massacre was a targeted attack not just against his supporters, but against him personally. He alleged that sharpshooters had attempted to kill him specifically, but he had avoided them by finding cover and returning fire. Unbowed, he announced that he plans to continue holding rallies outside of the capital, stating that the ubiquitous presence of the ANP and ANA prevented the free expression of speech within the capital. Reportedly, a warrant for his arrest has been circulated throughout the capital city and surrounding areas.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

[OOC: Apologies for the brevity, I'm going to be limited to posting from my phone for the rest of the weekend.]

Headline News
July 26th, 2015

Voice of Jihad:

Pakistan accuses Haqqani Network of interference, threatens retaliation
Quetta Shura calls for foreign mujahideen to join jihad near Kandahar

Afghan Islamic Press:

Pakistan "cannot tolerate" Taliban within borders, prepares reprisals
United Front reforms in North, challenging Karzai

IRIN News - Afghanistan:

Karzai's brutality condemned by international community
Taliban lose more territory to Haqqanis, on brink of defeat

Bakhtar News Agency

Pakistan condemns violent reformation of United Front
Border tensions spike between troops, Taliban, and Haqqanis

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Formation of the National Front of Afghanistan
Special Coverage
An in-depth look at the mass desertions that followed the creation of the National Front of Afghanistan, provided by the IWPR

Summary: Ahmad Zia Massoud declared the reformation of the United Front, with the stated purpose of overthrowing the Karzai government. He claimed this authority from Karzai's alleged appeasement towards the Taliban, stating that the United Front was needed to expel both Taliban and Taliban-affiliated leaders from Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan. The group grew in size quickly, gathering recruits from the surrounding Tajik, Hazara, and Uzbek populations, and also collected men and materiel from deserting ANA and ANP personnel. The ANA began drawing outlying brigades into Kabul to defend against the treat, but the weakness of the Corps near the Taliban/Haqqani-held South and East became painfully evident when the vast majority of troops were shown to exist on paper only, having deserted to either the Taliban or Haqqani Network. IWPR ANA expert Abdullah Mahir provides the following estimates for ANA strength after the revealing redeployment of troops and estimated desertions to the NFA:

201st Corps (Kabul)

• Paper Strength: 12,600
• Unofficial*: 12,600
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: 1,200
• Actual Strength: 11,400
• Notes: Parts of 1st (Kabul) Brigade desert to NFA.

203rd Corps (Gardez)

• Paper Strength: 12,600
• Unofficial: 12,600
• Deserted to Haqqanis: 4,200
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: 1,800
• Actual Strength: 6,600
• Notes: 1st (Khost) and parts of 3rd (Ghazni) Brigades deserted to Haqqani. Roughly half of 2nd (Sharana) Brigade deserted to NFA.

205th Corps (Kandahar)

• Paper Strength: 16,200
• Unofficial: 11,400
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: 6,000
• Deserted to NFA: nil
• Actual Strength: 5,400
• Notes: 1st (Kandahar), half of 2nd (Qalat), and parts of 4th (Tarin Kowt) Brigades deserted to Taliban.

207th Corps (Herat)

• Paper Strength: 9,000
• Unofficial: 4,800
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: 2,400
• Actual Strength: 2,400
• Notes: Most of 1st Brigade (Herat) deserted to NFA.

209th Corps (Mazari Sharif)

• Paper Strength: 9,000
• Unofficial: 7,800
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: 7,800
• Actual Strength: 0
• Notes: HQ Battalion, 1st (Mazari Sharif), and 2nd (Kunduz) Brigades desert to NFA, including Army Engineers of 2nd Brigade and Afghan National Army Air Corps Support Squadron of 8 helicopters.

211th Corps (Char Borjak)

• Paper Strength: 9,000
• Unofficial: 9,000
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: 2,400
• Deserted to NFA: 1,200
• Actual Strength: 5,400
• Notes: Parts of 1st (Char Borjak) and 2nd (Zaranj) Brigades desert to Taliban. Parts of 2nd Brigade also desert to NFA.

215th Corps (Lashkar Gah)

• Paper Strength: 12,600
• Unofficial: 7,800
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: 4,800
• Deserted to NFA: nil
• Actual Strength: 3,000
• Notes: Most of 1st (Garmsir) and 2nd (FOB Delaram) Brigades deserted to Taliban.

111th Capital Division, Kabul

• Paper Strength: 12,600
• Unofficial: 12,600
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: 3,600
• Actual Strength: 9,000
• Notes: Parts of 1st (Kabul) and most of 2nd (Kabul) Brigades deserted to NFA.

ANA Special Operations Command (Camp Moorehead)

• Paper Strength: 8,400
• Unofficial: 8,400
• Deserted to Haqqanis: nil
• Deserted to Taliban: nil
• Deserted to NFA: nil
• Actual Strength: 8,400
• Notes: There have been no observed desertions from ANASOCOM.

Total ANA Strength

• Paper Strength: 102,000
• Unofficial: 87,600
• Deserted to Haqqanis: 4,200
• Deserted to Taliban: 13,200
• Deserted to NFA: 18,000
• Actual Strength: 52,200

*As the "ghosting" of troops onto payrolls was already common before the desertions, most brigades already had widely-known estimates of their true strength, separate from their paper strength, even before the mass desertions. The "unofficial" number reflects those prior estimates.

Active Combatant Estimates

The additional information provided by these reports has allowed the IWPR to update its official estimates for the size of each of the major forces in the Afghan Civil War (2012-present). The estimates are very rough, as they are dependent on wartime reporting, in part, by the combatants themselves for statistics such as casualties after major battles, combined with the estimates of IWPR investigators.

Taliban

• Previous Estimate (2014): 31,500
• Killed in Action (2014-present): 2,100
• Other casualties (WIA, POW, MIA): 9,200
• Recruited: 4,800
• Deserters from ANA: 13,200
• Current Estimate: 38,200

Haqqani Network

• Previous Estimate (2014): 29,800
• Killed in Action (2014-present): 1,200
• Other casualties (WIA, POW, MIA): 4,700
• Recruited: 6,900
• Deserters from ANA: 4,200
• Current Estimate: 35,000

Afghan National Army

• Previous Estimate (2014): 87,600
• Killed in Action (2014-present): 250
• Other casualties (WIA, POW, MIA): 1,500
• Recruited: 1,750
• Deserted: 35,400
• Current Estimate: 52,200

National Front of Afghanistan

• Previous Estimate (2014): N/A
• Killed in Action (2014-present): N/A
• Other casualties (WIA, POW, MIA): N/A
• Recruited: 15,300
• Deserters from ANA: 18,000
• Current Estimate: 33,300

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

August-September, 2015
News Lookback
The IWPR reviews the major events and media coverage of the last two months in Afghanistan

The NFA Consolidates

IWPR Summary: The National Front of Afghanistan declared the reformation of military operations under the banner of the United Front, led by the efforts of Ahmad Zia Massoud, brother of the late Lion of Panjshir. In the two months since the July 24th announcement, the group has mobilized more than 15,000 fighters, largely from the youth in the north of the country. The country's Uzbek, Hazara, and Tajik populations formed the majority of the new recruits, while the group also benefited from a large number of ANA deserters, including the entire 209th Corps. Since that point, the NFA has moved to consolidate its forces, gathering them into three corps in the north and three detached battalions in other areas of the country. The ANA has begun to pull forces towards Kabul to face the combatants, but have been slowed by bureaucratic misfires and the need to guard against Taliban and Haqqani advances. So far, there have been no battles between ANA and NFA forces.

Bakhtar News Agency Coverage: Bakhtar has focused on two major lines of reporting on the NFA; first, they have run a series condemning desertion, and focusing especially on the obligations of the soldiers that have signed up. The series has been criticized for its portrayal of ethnic minorities as cowardly, and especially its focus on the large Tajik minority. Their second series has been a critical series of portrayals of leaders of the NFA, with a special focus on leaders accused of war crimes during the retaking of Afghanistan from the Taliban. The pieces also focus on leaders that served in the Karzai administration, focusing on their betrayal of their former political leaders.

IRIN News - Afghanistan Coverage: IRIN has spent the ensuing time running a series of pieces on corruption within the Afghan National Army, focusing carefully on regular soldiers who are denied pay by their superiors. Most believe that this tactic is meant to discourage individual ANA troops, with the hopes of causing further desertions. IRIN has also increased its regular coverage of the political standoff within the Afghan Congress, where the National Coalition of Afghanistan, the political wing of the NFA continues to hold its seats and call for immediate presidential elections. IRIN has focused especially carefully on a series of fiery political speeches by Abdullah Abdullah, presumed opponent of Karzai in future presidential contests.

There has been little coverage of the event in either Voice of Jihad or the Afghan Islamic Press, except for some gloating in the editorial pages.

Haqqani Advance into Kandahar Halted in Zabul

IWPR Summary: A large influx of foreign donations to the Taliban, especially from radicalized madrossas in Pakistan and Al Qaeda affiliates in Yemen, Somalia, and Africa. The group's appeal to international donors has been successful in providing materiel for the Taliban's troops, which had outnumbered Haqqani forces for much of the conflict between the two. The advantage has been especially important in countering discrepancies in ammunition supplies, relatively heavy weaponry, and transportation. There have also been rumors of reinforcements from Arab countries moving into Afghanistan from surrounding countries, especially Pakistan. The Haqqanis note that they stopped advances deliberately after seizing a strategically important highway crossing near the border between Zabul and Kandahar provinces.

Voice of Jihad Coverage: The Voice of Jihad network has focused on the tactical successes of the Taliban forces, and has run a series focused on the individual bravery of Taliban fighters on the front lines. This is fairly standard coverage for Voice of Jihad, and has been supplemented by an increasingly international message focused on the religious purity of the Haqqani Network, likely in an attempt to draw more religious support from extremist groups internationally.

Afghan Islamic Press Coverage: The AIP has focused on the advances made thus far by the Haqqani Network. They have run a series of stories on the importance of gains, including restricting of supply lines for the Taliban. The series also focuses on the ease of the advance thus far, analyzing the military failures of the Taliban in the previous year's campaign. They have also focused on the course that the war might take in the upcoming Spring fighting season.

Bakhtar News Agency Coverage: Bakhtar hasn't covered the development in detail, but has spent some time attempting to take credit for the fighting between the two groups. It claims that the Karzai government's attempts to forge a truce with the Taliban has led to the lessening pressure on the ANA in the south and east.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Bakhtar Goes Offline
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
1545

Late this afternoon, it appeared that the Kabul-based news organization Bakhtar News Agency went offline, as its website was not accessible from outside computers. At the same time, its usual television and radio broadcasts went off-air; the television feed was replaced with a notice that the station was experiencing "technical difficulties", while the radio station simply went silent. The stations were not experiencing a loss of power at the time of the radio loss, as other stations broadcasting out of Kabul maintained their broadcast. However, soon after the shutoff, there was a blackout in the northern parts of the city. Information coming out of the city is currently extremely limited.

Though blackouts, of both electricity and television service, are quite frequent, blackouts of this duration are practically unheard-of. Special reporting teams have been sent to the area, but no reports have been made back at this point. Others have speculated that an attack by one of the warring factions has struck at Kabul, but the IWPR's estimates of troop positions have not shown any significant movement towards Kabul by any of the major factions. It is also possible that the Taliban or Haqqanis have reverted to using more traditional insurgent attacks, and that one of them has targeted services in Kabul, perhaps in a bid to garner support from anti-Western international groups.

Reports of Fighting Outside Kabul
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
1630

Special IWPR reporting teams outside Kabul have collected several reports documenting heavy fighting to the north of the city, with possibly ancillary fighting to the west. The epicenter of the fighting appears to be roughly 10 km north of Kabul proper, and is purported to be between elements of the ANA, possibly including militants under the command of the NFA. More information is becoming increasingly hard to come by, as the Afghan National Police have begun restricting access into the city, and an increasing stream of refugees from the north of the city have caused panic to spread throughout the capital. IRIN News - Afghanistan, also based nominally in Kabul, has ceased broadcasts, matching the radio silence of the Bakhtar News Agency. No other major news agencies appear to have any further information from the incidents in Kabul.

IRIN Reports NFA Victory Near Kabul
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
1730

As the sun set in Kabul, IRIN News - Afghanistan, widely considered to be affiliated with the NFA and its political wing, the National Coalition of Afghanistan, reported that NFA forces had broken an ANA formation 10 km to the north of the capital with heavy casualties for the defenders. The news service had been off the air and radio, but returned without warning to issue the report before resuming broadcast silence. Other scattered reports of ANA-uniformed personnel fleeing into Kabul have been verified, but it is unclear if there was a decisive victory as reported by IRIN. In the meantime, rumors of another NFA formation to the west of the city continue to spread, though it is unclear if that is fear in Kabul distorting reports of ANA reinforcements. However, considering the fact that most ANA troops nearby are to the east of the capital, it is possible that the forces are not affiliated with the GIRoA. More information will be released as it becomes available.

NFA Troops Enter Kabul, Little Resistance Reported
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
2000

During the night, it appears that a large formation of NFA-affiliated regular soldiers, still wearing the uniforms of the ANA, entered Kabul to the West under the command of Mohammad Mohaqiq, a key leader in the Shia Hazara ethnic group. The troops experienced light resistance from Afghan National Police units, but most of the poorly-equipped and poorly-paid police laid down their arms without a fight. The NFA forces appear to be marching towards central Kabul, where elements of the ANA's Special Security Brigade are setting up defensive positions. Thus far, there has been no reported fighting between the two groups. The ANA is also known to have reserved the 1st and 3rd Battalion for the defense of Kabul, but there is no reported news of either of their whereabouts.

Clashes in Central, Northern Kabul
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
2100

Fighting has erupted throughout the city in the dark of the night, as confused clashes have continued to engulf the city. Clashes have erupted in Guzargah, a suburb only a few kilometers from the Presidential Palace, between what appears to be elements of the 3rd Brigade of the ANA and NFA forces under the command of Mohammad Mohaqiq. At the same time, a larger NFA force has engaged with elements of the Special Security Brigade in the suburb of Sherpur, to the north of the Presidential Palace. The ANA forces appear to be severely outnumbered, but the bulk of the Afghan forces are stationed at Bagram, 60 kilometers away. It is unclear if the forces have begun to move back towards the city, or if there is a coordinated plan to retake Kabul at all. Sporadic, positive reports on the progress of NFA forces continue to be broadcast by IRIN News, but there does not appear to be significant sourcing backing up the reports.

ANA Forces Pushed Back to Presidential Palace
Special Bulletin
October 11th, 2015
2230

Independent correspondents have confirmed that fighting in the capital have been limited to areas around the Presidential Palace, with a large number of both ANA and NFA forces in the area. Fighting is extremely intense, and IWPR correspondents have been unable to enter the vicinity of the fighting. The sounds of both gunfire and mortars have been nearly constant for the last hour, and there appears to be little progress on either side's part. Two helicopters that appeared to be headed for the Presidential Palace were turned back after a missile fired from the ground hit one, causing visible damage. It is unclear if President Hamid Karzai is actually in the palace or not.

NFA Forces Seize Presidential Palace, Take Control of Kabul
Special Bulletin
October 12th, 2015
0430

Fighting in Kabul has died down in the earliest hours of the morning, and it appears that forces under the control of Ahmad Zia Massoud have seized the Presidential Palace at the heart of Kabul. There have been no announcements either by the apparently victorious forces or by IRIN News, which appears to have been serving as a press corps for the NFA during the attack. IWPR reporters continue to be unable to confirm or deny conclusively the presence of President Karzai in the Presidential Palace. There are also rumors of an attempt to retake the palace by forces in Bagram, but there have been no confirmed reports that the large ANA forces at the air base have moved from their positions. However, the NFA forces have begun to set up defensive positions around the Presidential Palace, indicating that they believe that a counterattack is going to come at some point.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Occupation of Kabul
Special Coverage
An in-depth look at the attempts to consolidate control over Kabul and the North of Afghanistan

Summary: After the National Front of Afghanistan captured the Presidential Palace in the capital of Kabul, they began attempting to establish legitimacy as the government of the country. Their forces were able to establish military control over the capital and surrounding regions without significant difficulty. Though there was a small amount of low-level insurgent violence at the start of the occupation, but the violence appeared to sporadic and disorganized, as opposed to the well-planned campaigns led earlier in the decade by the Taliban. It also appeared that the insurgent effort was handicapped by an unwillingness to harm civilians, likely in the hopes that Karzai-aligned forces would be able to take back the city without angering the inhabitants. In the following months, a new transitional government was established, while the framework of a new federal, national government has been developed. At the same time, forces loyal to Karzai lost the Second Battle for Kabul, but were able to flee to the west with the majority of their forces. They have since formed a cohesive army, but have not taken aggressive action, and have instead retreated far into the west, into the province of Herat. From there, they have been able to hold sway over Herat, Badghis, and parts of Faryab and Ghor. Since that point in November, there has been little military confrontation between the two groups.

Second Battle for Kabul and Consolidation

The battle for functional control of central Afghanistan centered around the Second Battle of Kabul, coming after the definitive NFA victory in the First Battle of Kabul. General Wardak, controlling the remaining ANA forces in the area, launched a strike with mechanized elements of the ANA's Third Army from the north of the city, where they were met by a carefully prepared NFA defense. The rest of the Third Army followed the attack, but were unable to make progress against the defenses as the attack bogged down in the northern portions of the city.

Four hours after the attacks started against the north, General Wardak led a surprise attack from the ANA's 203rd Corps to the south of the city. The troops advanced quickly through the southern suburbs of the city, and had advanced nearly a mile into Kabul proper, threatening the Presidential Palace. The quick advance turned out to be an ambush, as NFA reserve troops were hidden within the denser areas of Kabul proper, and cut through the middle of the advancing corps. This advance scattered most of the forward troops, whose advance was stalled quickly. With both fronts stalled, Wardak elected to pull the second half of the southern forces out of the battle, and abandoned the advancing half to the NFA troops.

After the collapse of the southern advance, the northern troops, already stalled against the defenses of the NFA, began to retreat. NFA forces attempted to flank the retreating forces, preventing their retreat, but were strongly repulsed. The ANA retreated west immediately, seeking to link up with the combined forces in the south of the country, reconstituted as the 205th Corps.

In the capital itself, the NFA forces continued to fortify the capital, fearing both counterattack by ANA forces and the possibility of an opportunistic attack by either Taliban or Haqqani forces. As the risk of military counterattack fell, the NFA and its political allies in the National Coalition of Afghanistan turned their efforts to rebuilding the capital and establishing a government.

Rebuilding the Capital

The National Coalition of Afghanistan took over efforts to rebuild the capital's political structures, and quickly set up a nationwide conference in an attempt to reconcile with many of the local governors previously aligned with the Karzai movement. The council failed to draw representation from the areas of the country controlled by the Taliban and the Haqqani, which seemed to be uninterested in the confrontation between the two groups in the north. The council was able to draw good representation from the vast majority of the area under their control however, as the NCA contains many of the Uzbek, Tajik, and Hazara leaders that wield influence through the majority of GIRoA-controlled territory. The Pashtun majority in the country is largely contained in areas controlled by the Taliban, and to a lesser extent by the Haqqanis.

Forces under the NFA and the leadership of Ahmad Zia Massoud were tasked with taking over for the Afghan National Police, while the police themselves could be purged of elements either loyal to Karzai or responsible for the atrocities that had occurred in the last several years. The forces took to the task with enthusiasm, but the control of Massoud was enough to keep the atrocities administrative, and not physical. The ANP, previously at a strength of over 130,000 before the departure of the Americans, was cut to a strength of just over 45,000. Some of the departures were folded into the Transitional Afghan Self-Defense Force (TASDF), which has taken over the institution of the Afghan National Army during the transition period.

By the conclusion of the conference, the ANP was once again patrolling the streets of Kabul, and local militias-turned police forces were helping to patrol outlying areas of NFA control. The government was established as the Federal Transitional Administration of Afghanistan, which was charged with setting up preliminary elections to the Afghan Parliament. The Parliament's current members were asked to resign from their posts, but were allowed universally to stand for re-election in the upcoming elections if they so chose. The elections themselves have been limited for security concerns to provinces controlled by the NFA, leaving out Ghor and the areas which have been left in the hands of the Taliban or Haqqani.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

November-December, 2015
News Lookback
The IWPR reviews the major events and media coverage of the last two months in Afghanistan

Northern Battle Lines Harden

IWPR Summary: After the routing of ANA forces in Kabul, the remnants of the ANA's northern and southern forces retreated well into the west, looking for friendly, Pashtun-majority territory. They found it in Badghis, where they were able to regroup and resupply somewhat, using popular support from Afghans in the area to do so. However, their long retreat across enemy-held or foreign territory in Hazara-dominated central Afghanistan left them weakened, and forced them to spend the time thoroughly on the defensive against an NFA attack that never came. In the meantime, the NFA was able to move defensive forces into Ghor, where a defensive perimeter was established midway into the province. This defensive line, which has since been fortified by NFA forces, appears to be the focal point for any future fighting between the NFA and ANA, as it is the gateway to the eastern parts of the country, and to Kabul.

Bakhtar News Agency Coverage: [ IWPR Note: During the attack on Kabul, Bakhtar went off the air and was not heard from for several weeks. However, the news agency was able to re-establish itself in Ghor after the retreat of ANA forces. ] Bakhtar's coverage of the defensive lines has castigated the "insurgent" NFA forces of trying to sow dissent and discord within the GIRoA to aid insurgent groups such as the Haqqani and the Taliban. To support its claim, Bakhtar has been profiling the governors that have been appointed in central Afghan provinces, and has been linking them with known warlords, especially during the 1992-1996 struggles in which several ex-mujahideen groups struggled for dominance within the country. At the same time, Bakhtar has heavily emphasized the continuity of the GIRoA, running features on the continued work of the Foreign Affairs Ministry, as well as development work conducted by foreign NGOs with contracts nominally with the former Afghan government.

IRIN News - Afghanistan Coverage: [ IWPR Note: While IRIN News also went offline during the attacks on Kabul, it came back online much more quickly and has been running continually since about three days after the Second Battle of Kabul. ] IRIN's coverage of the battle lines has been a focus on the diplomatic efforts of the NFA and especially its political counterpart, the NCA. These efforts have been, according to IRIN, to help convince the remains of the ANA to peacefully rejoin the new administration in Kabul in order to launch a combined offensive against the Haqqani and Taliban forces still in control of vast swaths of the country. These diplomatic efforts, claim IRIN, are the reason that the NFA has set up defensive lines instead of continuing to push their advantage against a tired ANA, forced to retreat for several hundred kilometers. IRIN has also run a number of positive profiles of the new members of the FTAA, and has focused carefully on the Pashtun members of the administration, though they remain a minority in the new administration.

Taliban Slowly Gains Advantage in South

IWPR Summary: In the neglected south of the country, the Taliban have been able to retake much of the land lost to the Haqqani during last year's spring fighting season. This surge has come with the support of foreign fighters, and increasing number of Arab fighters affiliated with the Taliban on the front lines have been reported. This trend appears to have also followed with materiel, as foreign donors have given the Taliban access to increased numbers of vehicles and larger-caliber weaponry, though not enough to completely offset the Haqqani advantage in those areas. It is reported that the Taliban have been extremely cautious in their advance towards the border between the provinces of Zabul and Ghazni, and some speculate that the Taliban have failed to truly take advantage of their turn in momentum.

Voice of Jihad Coverage: The Taliban-affiliated network has run almost non-stop coverage of the advances made by Taliban fighters, likening it to the turning point in the 1996-2001 civil war which eventually put the Taliban in control of Kabul. The Taliban have emphasized the contributions of foreign "mujahideen" in the struggle, apparently in an attempt to continue to recruit fighters from countries worldwide, but especially in Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Interestingly, there have also been some editorials calling for Taliban forces to move even faster in their advances, referencing "Allah's will" that frontline commanders "not show cowardice" in their moments of opportunity. Usually, the news agency is highly positive, and has not shown criticism of Taliban commanders in the past.

Afghan Islamic Press Coverage: Much like the Voice of Jihad did in the past, the AIP has focused on downplaying the land gained by the Taliban, pointing out that they have yet to regain their original defensive lines. In addition, they have taunted the Taliban for being unwilling to advance more quickly, pointing out that when the Haqqani had the advantage in men and numbers, they moved quickly and deeply into Taliban territory. The group also seems confident that the recent materiel and manpower gains by the Taliban are temporary, noting that the Haqqani Network has won battles against superpowers like the United States with many fewer resources than they have now. Senior Haqqani leaders have also been interviewed as saying that support from foreign sources is inevitable, now that the Taliban have internationalized the war.

IRIN News - Afghanistan Coverage: IRIN News has dedicated most of its coverage to the north, but interestingly has been running a series of reports on atrocities taking place in the fighting to the south. They have also focused on atrocities taking place in the east, in areas securely held by the Haqqani Network since the retreat of the Americans in 2012. The news agency normally neglects completely to cover news outside of the north of the country, but may be expanding its focus now that it has sole access to Kabul.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

January 15th, 2016
News Brief
Summary of major news, provided by the Institute for War and Peace Recording

Bakhtar News Agency
GIRoA Suspends Elections Further During National Chaos

After Kabul was occupied by militants under the banner of the National Front of Afghanistan, the ruling government of Afghanistan was forced to temporarily relocate to Ghor province in the still-loyal west of the country. Even still, the government has continued to operate normally, maintaining international relations with allies such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and continuing to maintain and oversee development projects within the country.

However, the government has been forced to takes its first step outside of normalcy due to the violent extremists that seized government buildings and resources in the capital. Presidential elections, which had been rescheduled for late 2015 to meet the democratic demands of the Afghan people, have been suspended until the ANA and other institutions of the Afghan government will be able to retake the capital. Until such a time, Hamid Karzai will continue to hold the Presidency on a temporary basis, and will continue to exercise emergency executive powers in the absence of a loyal Afghan parliament.

IRIN News - Afghanistan
Hamid Karzai Still Missing

Nearly three months after the successful establishment of the FTAA, both NFA and ANA forces have failed to locate Hamid Karzai, who remains at large. Karzai is wanted for several charges of corruption related to nepotistic appointments, as well as for the murder of more than 20 protestors using the tool of the Afghan National Police. NFA forces have sought to bring the former dictator to justice, but it is unclear if he has fled to the west with the ANA or to the east to escape to Pakistan. At this point, the NFA has no clear leads in the matter.

At the same time, the "GIRoA" continues to attempt to function normally, though all of their powers have nominally transferred to the office of the (absent) president. It is unclear who is actually in charge in Ghor, though one can only imagine that the former government is in chaos, likely explaining the lack of any ANA offensives or attempts at counterattacks in the last three months.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Large NFA Force Reported in Ghor
Special Bulletin
February 23rd, 2016
0323

Several reporters in Ghor province have reported a massive NFA force, mostly mechanized, moving on suspected ANA positions in the west. It appears that the forces were preceded by helicopter gunship attacks on outlying positions and heavy fortifications, but casualties appeared to be light. NFA forces are expected to reach ANA positions within several hours, and appear to be using heavy, American-made fighting vehicles and reports of mortar fire from NFA troops have been made. It is unknown how many ANA forces are in the area, or if former President Hamid Karzai is still with the ANA forces. Karzai has not been heard from in the last three months.

Fighting Reported in Ghor
Special Bulletin
February 23rd, 2016
0645

It appears that the NFA forces have met the ANA in battle in the western portion of Ghor. The forces moved quickly, supported by helicopter attacks throughout the area. Interestingly, the NFA forces have been dropping propaganda pamphlets during the air attacks; IWPR reporters have obtained a copy, which includes the groundbreaking declaration that Hamid Karzai has died. The IWPR has been unable to independently confirm these reports, and requests for information from both the GIRoA and the FTAA have not yet been responded to. In the fighting itself, both forces appear to be relatively still, with few gains by either side. Casualties appear to be low in the initial fighting.

Desertions from ANA Increasing
Special Bulletin
February 23rd, 2016
0950

As fighting continues in Ghor, reports of ANA soldiers fleeing their positions have been increasing, especially where fighting is the hardest. The ANA positions are centered around the historical village of Jam, home of the famous Minaret of Jam. It appears that the valley surrounding the village is keeping the NFA from bringing much of their numerical superiority to bear in the central area of the fighting. However, repeated helicopter attacks appear to be having a psychological effect on the ANA forces, as reports of hundreds of ANA forces fleeing to the west have been confirmed. In related news, the GIRoA has stated that former President Hamid Karzai is still alive, though they cannot provide evidence thereof. The NTAA has confirmed the propaganda, and have provided photographs of a brutally disfigured body. They stated that civilians took vengeance on Karzai before their forces could capture and imprison him.

NFA Breaks Through at Jam
Special Bulletin
February 23rd, 2016
1245

The losses from desertions have taken a heavy toll on the ANA, as they have been forced to abandon their positions at Jam. The ANA has retreated several kilometers to the west, and it appears that their positions to the north of Jam have collapsed. The ANA continues to fall back in retreat, and it is possible that the mechanized portions of the NFA will be able to encircle the ANA forces if the ANA is unable to retreat in time. In the meantime, there are reports of large numbers of surrenders in Jam, where both NFA and ANA forces appeared to be largely unwilling to risk damaging the Minaret of Jam. The Minaret contains verses from the Qaran, and it is likely that neither side wishes to risk damaging the holy writ.

ANA Forces Encircled
Special Bulletin
February 23rd, 2016
1700

Reports are coming in from Awbeh, a small village in Herat Province; it appears that NFA forces have entered Herat and surrounded the remaining ANA forces in and around the village of Jam. It appears that fighting has intensified, especially with increasing amounts of mortar fire from the surrounding NFA forces. Surrendering troops from the ANA continue to flow back of the lines, though it appears that they are now being detained, while in past fighting, they have simply dispersed. Pressure from the right flank of the ANA forces is increasing steadily, as it appears the NFA is focusing their efforts there.

ANA Forces Surrender; War for the North is Over
Special Bulletin
February 24th, 2016
0200

In the early Tuesday morning, reports were confirmed out of Jam that ANA forces had surrendered en masse. It appears that the entirety of the ANA forces have surrendered either previous to their encirclement or after they were entirely encircled. Senior ANA leadership, including commanding General Wardak, were taken into custody at roughly 0130. The forces fought for nearly five hours in the dark before their right flank collapsed, making the situation clearly hopeless for the defending ANA. The surrender was conducted between General Wardak of the ANA and Ahmad Zia Massoud, commander of the NFA forces. With the end of the battle comes the apparent end of the struggle for control of the non-Pashtun north of the country. It appears that the FTAA is now in control the entirety of the territory formerly under the control of the GIRoA, and have also seized some territory in the west from Haqqani control, as well as small areas of the Herat province, previously under Taliban control.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Taliban Break Through Haqqani Lines
Special Bulletin
April 7th, 2016
0215

In one of the most dramatic developments in the War for the South of Afghanistan, the Taliban have broken through Haqqani lines in a major, front-wide attack against defensive lines. It appears that the attack was supported by a large number of previously-unseen Jeep trucks, apparently stolen from American bases through the southern portion of the country. The mechanized troops were used to take advantage of a crumbling Haqqani line in the northernmost portion of their defense. This breakdown came after the Taliban troops demonstrated the potential of their restocking of both men and supplies, provided by a variety of foreign donors. Reports from the area indicate that many of the reinforcements were Arab, unlike the largely Pashtun Taliban that had been fighting up until this point.

It appears that the attack has forced the leadership of the Haqqani Network to leave their fortified positions in the capital of Paktika province, where they have been stationed since the retreat of the American forces in 2012. This major advance for the Taliban could signal the beginning of the end for Haqqani forces is significant resupply or reinforcements are not found for their forces.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Parliamentary, Gubernatorial Elections Held
Special Report
April 8th, 2016
1900

As expected, elections were held today for the newly-formed, unicameral Parliament known as the High Council, a reference to groupings of mujahideen leaders during the resistance against the Soviets. The Parliament represents only provinces which are under the control of NFA forces, disenfranchising those that are under either Taliban or Haqqani rule in the south and east of the country. National Coalition of Afghanistan leaders have stated that this is because the security of elections in those areas could not be guaranteed, though it is also possible that the new government does not want to antagonize either ex-insurgent group as it attempts to secure its own control over the north and west of the country.

The system for proportioning seats is somewhat complex, as it is meant to give extra weight to devolving power to the province level. Half of the seats are distributed to the provinces based proportionally on the number of citizens within each province. Each province is guaranteed at least one seat under the system, and 102 seats are distributed in this manner. The other half of the seats are distributed evenly between the districts, with each district getting three seats apiece. This leads to a normal total of 204 seats, if all provinces were participating in the election.

However, because 13 provinces were not included in the election, their 39 directly-appointed seats will remain empty. In order to keep the balance between proportional and directly-appointed seats even, the FTAA decided to also hold 39 of the proportionally-allocated seats empty as well, meaning that the first High Council of Afghanistan will consist of only 126 parliamentarians (the technical term for the representatives is "Councillors"). Though this does not seem like a crippling problem, it does mean that a much larger share of the Councillors will also be serving as Ministers in the Executive Branch as well as Councillors.

The results in the elections will likely be confusing, as each candidate is running under the party of "National Coalition of Afghanistan" in a show of unity. However, the electoral commission has allowed an "informal political party" descriptor to be added to each candidate's name in order to accommodate more traditional political parties. There are four major groups running in the elections:

Coalition for Change and Hope: Led by Abdullah Abdullah, the CCH was the predecessor to the NCA. The CCH stands largely as a cross-ethnic coalition, but also more directly appeals to the Pashtun population of the country in an attempt to garner more votes.

Jamiat-e Islami: Led nominally by former president Sibghatullah Mojaddedi, Jamiat is generally considered the political outlet of Ahmad Zai Massoud and the Tajik population of Afghanistan. It is especially popular in Panjshir province and the surrounding area.

National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan: Commonly known as Jumbish, based on its transliteration, the party is the political representation largely of Afghanistan's Uzbek's population. Led by Abdul Rashid Dostum, the ex-Soviet-aligned general, the group is very popular in the northwest of the country.

Hizb-e Wahdat: Also known as the Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan, Hizb-e Wahdat stands for Islamism in government and for the interests of the minority Shiite Hazara population in the country. The group is led by Karim Khalli, but also includes popular NFA leader Mohammad Mohaqiq. The group is popular in the central part of the country, though there are pockets of support throughout the north.

At the same time as the parliamentary elections, elections for the positions of governor in each province were held. The elections will ban all of the sitting governors from holding the position in the upcoming elections. Additionally, the governors will have a great deal of power in shaping the system of government in their provinces; as per the wartime policies of Ahmad Shah Massoud, most of the decisions will be undertaken democratically at the district level, which will then be brought to the province level.

The Councillors will be serving short terms, only holding office until September 9th, when a new parliament will be elected. The Councillors' current job is to write a Constitution and formalize the government of the country for the future.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Election Results
Press Release
April 9th, 2016
0300

In the early hours of the morning, the FTAA Electoral Commission released the following report, listing the following breakdown for seats in the interim High Council.

Coalition for Change and Hope (CCH, Abdullah Abdullah): 60
Jamiat-e Islami (Jamiat, Sibghatullah Mojaddedi): 38
National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan (Jumbish, Abdul Rashid Dostum): 14
Hizb-e Wahdat (HW, Karim Khalli): 14

The governor seats were divided in a different proportion. By total number of governorships won:

CCH: 6
Jamiat: 9
Jumbish: 3
HW: 2

For full results by province, please see the following link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key...dvdGVnTnc#gid=0

Official seat numbers are highlighted in yellow. The bold number of seats indicates which party won the governor's seat in the province.

Abdullah Abdullah has been announced as the first Afghan Prime Minister to serve without a higher executive; his cabinet and more election analysis will be published soon.

[OOC: There are a bunch of other numbers that I used to calculate who would probably win each province. You can ignore those.]

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Turkish, Iranian Media Report That Karzai is Alive
Special Bulletin
April 11th, 2016

Turkish and Iranian media have both reported that deposed Afghan president Hamid Karzai is alive and possibly in either Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, or Afghanistan itself. According to the Iranian state media organization Fars, Karzai requested passage through Iran. Turkish media went on to speculate that this passage likely meant that the former ruler meant to seek asylum in Turkey, but notes that there have been no other confirmed sightings of Karzai since the invasion of Kabul by the NFA in 2015.

This news conflicts with the official reports from the FTAA, which stated during the most recent fighting with the ANA that Hamid Karzai had been killed during the invasion of Afghanistan, providing pictures of a mutilated body as proof. This revelation was used to great effect in propaganda during the battle, and is thought to have assisted some of the mass surrenders that occurred in the village of Jam, the epicenter of the fighting. FTAA officials could not be reached for formal comment on the story, but have stated that there will be an investigation into the potential that Karzai is still alive.

If the death of Karzai was indeed fabricated, it could be an early blow to the legitimacy of the government just elected and put into place this week.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

April 15th, 2016
News Brief
Summary of major news and coverage, provided by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting

IRIN News - Afghanistan
Government Seizes Karzai's Hidden Funds

The FTAA continued its ongoing investigation of former dictator Hamid Karzai's stores of Afghan taxpayer money yesterday, culminating in the liberation of seventeen new accounts held at the Afghan National Bank. The accounts, most of which were held on false names, but some of which were held by Karzai family members, were seized by officials from the Transitional Ministry of Finance, which has been conducting the investigations. Officials from the Afghan National Police confirmed that they have recently become involved in the investigation, though they have few officials that are trained in financial crime.

The FTAA has also filed an initial request to a series of Swiss banking companies requesting information that they might have on accounts linked to Karzai's government. Similar information has been requested from known accounts in the Cayman Islands, as well as in various other tax havens. Swiss banking rules were changed in 2012 under pressure from the United States to make their accounting more open to the public. Afghan officials have notified the authorities in both countries that Karzai's funds are subject to seizure for improper use and tax evasion.

Bakhtar News Agency
"FTAA" Steals More Cash From Pashtuns

IWPR Note: Bakhtar has been relocated again; its headquarters are now defunct, as editors have spread through the Middle East. Head editor Mohammad Albarata is now based out of London, where he has been coordinating the release of stories that have turned strongly against the new administration.

Officials from Abdullah Abdullah's FTAA have begun seizing more cash from Pashtun accounts in the Bank of Afghanistan, the home of the vast majority of funds for Kabul's residents. The Bank, which was being purged of corrupt accounts by President Hamid Karzai before the coup led by Abdullah, has been the target of several thefts by the coup leaders as they create populist programs. The most recent accounts target accounts almost exclusively under Pashtun names, indicating that the allegiance of the FTAA is almost entirely with the atheist Hazaras, as well as the foreign Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Turkmens. These groups have sought to rule Afghanistan throughout the country's history.

The FTAA is also suspected of attempting to seize money from wealthy Afghans in order to use it for their own corrupt purposes. Much of the money seized is being used to build two massive palaces for the new government, indicating that they believe themselves to be kings of all of the Afghans.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

May 21st, 2016
News Brief
Summary of major news and coverage, provided by the Institute for War and Peace Recording

Afghan Islamic Press
Taliban Crushed by Haqqani Forces, Flee West

The Taliban forces, which had been so cowardly in advancing even when they were infused with volunteers and bribes from foreigners attempting to conquer Afghanistan, have shown themselves to be cowardly once again. When faced with the impossibly brave acts of the Haqqani fighters in Paktika province, the Taliban were forced to flee from their aggression into Haqqani territory, and left for the west. Trucks full of Taliban fighters were seen fleeing in disarray, while their infantry withdrew to defensive positions in lieu of a full retreat.

Senior Haqqani military leaders have stated that there will be reprisals against the Taliban fighters and those that supported them for aiding the death and destruction caused by foreign Arab fighters in the surprise attack.

Voice of Jihad
Crusaders Launch Doomed Mission Into Herat

The new "government" in the north of Afghanistan has chosen to launch a cowardly attack on the unprotected people of southern Afghanistan. The godless American allies have managed to push into Herat, but brave mujahideen forces are returning from the beaten Haqqanis to fight off the invading forces. More updates will be coming soon.

[Afghanistan (MTTezla)]

Mullah Omar Killed In Kandahar
Special Bulletin
May 26th, 2016
0500

The IWPR has been able to independently verify the death of long-time Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, who was apparently killed by NFA forces while attempting to flee from Kandahar. The scene of the death was preserved by NFA forces, and IWPR reporters were allowed to inspect Omar's body in order to prevent the inevitable speculation that this death was also faked by the FTAA government.

NFA commander Ahmad Zia Massoud told IWPR reporters that the death of Omar "should end fighting from the rest of the Taliban." Omar founded the Taliban in 1994, and led them to seizing Kabul in 1996. From 1996 until 2001, he served as leader of the Taliban-controlled territory in Afghanistan, imposing extremely strict Sharia law on the country with overwhelming force. Omar and the Taliban were forced out of Kabul by the United Front and forward elements of the US invasion in 2001, and were forced to retreat to Pakistan. In Pakistan, he established the Quetta Shura, the leadership body of the Taliban during their insurgency, and in 2005 resumed an asymmetric conflict with the occupying American forces and the Karzai government. He returned to his birthplace of Kandahar in 2012 after the American withdrawal to lead the Taliban's military effort against the Haqqani Network, presiding over the loss of significant territory before rallying international support and taking back much of the lost territory. He was 57 years old at the time of his death.

The death of Mullah Omar has yet to be confirmed by Taliban leadership, which traditionally notes the "martyrdom" of senior leaders when killed by Afghan or American forces. However, Voice of Jihad has gone off the air, and it is unclear if the media typically associated with the Taliban are still in operation, as they were mostly headquartered in now-occupied Kandahar. It is possible that, like Bakhtar News, they will be able to relocate to a foreign country, most likely Pakistan, and continue to publish.

The death of Mullah Omar caps a lightning strike into the heart of Taliban territory by the NFA, which won a bloody victory over the Taliban two days earlier at Bazar-i-Panjwayi. NFA estimates reported nearly 5,300 Taliban deaths, while the Taliban stated at the time that more than 3,000 had been martyred. Both sides seemed to believe that there had been relatively light casualties among the NFA forces, between two and three hundred.

The victories in the south leave a great deal of uncertainty over the future of the conflict between the Taliban and the Haqqani, which is still continuing with Taliban infantry forces holding defensive positions in traditionally Haqqani-owned territory. It is also unclear who will take over the Taliban leadership; the known leaders were decimated by drone strikes before the withdrawal of the Americans, and it appears that Omar was one of several members of the Quetta Shura killed while attempting to flee the city.